US tariff impact on China-to-US trade flows and freight transportation Report Interpretation

Overview

This weekly tracker assesses how tariffs and shifting supply chains are affecting China-to-US freight, West Coast import activity, logistics pricing and transport-sector conditions. Goldman Sachs finds that the latest signals are mixed and volatile, but believes several cyclical and structural factors could support a more durable US freight-volume inflection during 2026.

Core views

The latest high-frequency data show a near-term slowdown in China-to-US freight flows, but continued year-on-year growth. Laden vessels from China to the US declined 5% week on week in the week ended September 17, following an 8.5% decline in the prior week, while remaining 5% above the year-earlier level versus 8% growth previously. TEUs from China to the US also fell 5% sequentially but were 5% higher year on year. Goldman Sachs notes that the data are volatile and subject to revision, so the firm emphasizes assessing multi-week patterns rather than treating a single week's move as conclusive. The Port of Los Angeles outlook points to a sharp short-term reversal. Planned TEUs into LA declined about 8% sequentially in the latest week, after -17% and +11% moves in the preceding two weeks. Port Optimizer data indicate a 30% sequential increase next week, followed by a 1% decline two weeks out. Year-on-year comparisons are expected to turn strongly positive, at roughly +40% next week and +16% two weeks later. Goldman Sachs says September import levels will help indicate whether shippers are restocking, whether peak season is beginning, whether spring pull-forward activity represented an early shipping peak, and how lower effective tariff rates affect ordering decisions. Other trade and transport indicators remain uneven. Mainland China-to-US laden vessels and TEUs were each up 3% year on year on average, while Asia excluding mainland China was down 7% for vessels and 12% for TEUs; the latter grouping includes Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Chinese major-port throughput rose 3% week on week and 7% year on year in the week ended September 13. West Coast intermodal traffic was unchanged year on year, compared with 20% growth in the prior week, with Labor Day timing affecting the earlier comparison. Monthly Big Three West Coast port volumes—Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland—were up 5% from June to July, close to the historical 6% seasonal average, but down 5% year on year. Freight pricing is firmer in some modes despite softer volume signals. China/East Asia-to-US West Coast ocean container rates increased 3.5% week on week and were 3.7 times higher year on year. Goldman Sachs expects continued choppiness as geopolitical developments may shift global capacity, introduce surcharges and affect an earlier-than-usual peak season. Asia-Pacific-to-North America air-cargo weights and rates rose 3% and 2%, respectively, on a two-week-over-two-week basis. Drewry Shanghai-to-LA air rates increased 9.5% month on month in August after falling 21% in July; the firm says reduced Gulf-region air capacity and higher jet-fuel prices could affect September rates depending on geopolitical developments. West Coast trucking remains softer operationally. Load availability fell 24% week on week and 37% year on year, while ex-fuel truckload spot rates declined 3% week on week but rose 11% year on year. Goldman Sachs interprets the July-August decline in truck activity as possible evidence that pull-forward activity in May and June is tapering. However, continued year-on-year growth in LA imports and positive intermodal volumes could allow West Coast trucking to stabilize; rates and loads could improve through year-end if ordering activity picks up. The firm's supply-chain congestion tracker remained at 2, with its bottleneck index down 10% week on week and fluidity near the pre-COVID baseline. Inventory data provide a mixed picture of demand positioning. August upstream business-to-business inventories contracted at 49, down from 59 in July, whereas downstream retail inventories expanded at 61.9 after 46.3. The Logistics Managers Index inventory-cost measure rose to 78.6 from 77, indicating faster inventory-cost expansion. Retailer, manufacturer and wholesaler inventory-to-sales ratios in July were 1.09, 1.47 and 1.20, compared with 1.08, 1.48 and 1.19 in June. Goldman Sachs also estimates that US imports were broadly unchanged year on year in August after an estimated roughly $1.82 billion year-on-year decline in July, following an average $3.16 billion year-on-year increase in May and June. For transport equities, Goldman Sachs argues that sustained volume growth—especially in higher-margin business-to-business, commercial and manufacturing freight—is the key condition for a profit and earnings bottom and then an upgrade cycle. The institution attributes broad transport underperformance during much of 2025 partly to tariff-related uncertainty, pull-forward demand and shipper indecision over inventory orders, which it believes may lead to a sub-seasonal peak-shipping period in fourth-quarter reporting. Nonetheless, it remains positive on the recovery story into 2026. Supporting factors cited include potentially more predictable shipper planning after the April 2, 2026 Liberation Day anniversary, projected Fed rate cuts, increased US manufacturing investment, revived bonus depreciation, potential reshoring or nearshoring, and China Plus One or Two supply-chain diversification. Goldman Sachs highlights that freight forwarders such as EXPD and CHRW could benefit from volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand. It also identifies parcel carriers UPS and FDX, both Buy-rated in the report, as potential beneficiaries of fast-cycle logistics, air freight and global networks that can help customers shift supply chains. At the same time, the institution notes difficult year-on-year comparisons for ocean rates and warns that a Red Sea reopening could add effective capacity.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines weekly and daily indicators for vessel departures, TEUs, planned port imports, ocean and air freight rates, rail intermodal traffic, truckload loads and spot rates, port throughput, congestion and inventories. It compares sequential and year-on-year changes, uses multi-week trends to reduce weekly timing noise, and links freight flows to tariff policy, shipper inventory decisions, transport pricing and the prospects for a broader volume recovery.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  High-frequency monitoring of freight volumes, capacity, pricing, inventories and logistics conditions.

  The report uses changes in shipping volumes, port imports, truck loads, rates and inventory conditions to assess freight demand, available capacity and the likely effects on transport activity.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Tariff and sourcing changes transmitted through imports, ports, intermodal networks, trucking, forwarding and parcel logistics.

  The report traces how tariff uncertainty and changes in shipper ordering can influence ocean imports and then affect domestic freight volumes, logistics pricing and transport-company exposure.

• Other

  Implied trade-value estimate based on year-on-year TEU changes and estimated value per container.

  Goldman Sachs estimates monthly import-value changes by multiplying the change in TEUs by an estimated value per TEU, using 2022 ocean-trade and loaded-container data and roughly 3% annual inflation to derive an approximately $57,000 value per container.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• EXPD

  Potential beneficiary of trade volatility and stronger customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential exposure to freight-forwarding and customs-brokerage activity.

  Comparison

  Grouped with CHRW as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Challenging year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons and trade uncertainty.

• CHRW

  Potential beneficiary of trade volatility and stronger customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential exposure to freight-forwarding and customs-brokerage activity.

  Comparison

  Grouped with EXPD as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Challenging year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons and trade uncertainty.

• UPS

  Potential beneficiary of fast-cycle logistics, air freight and a global network supporting customer supply-chain shifts.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics, air-freight exposure and global footprint.

  Comparison

  Grouped with FDX as a Buy-rated parcel beneficiary.

  Risks

  Volatile trade flows and uncertain shipping demand.

• FDX

  Potential beneficiary of fast-cycle logistics, air freight and a global network supporting customer supply-chain shifts.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics, air-freight exposure and global footprint.

  Comparison

  Grouped with UPS as a Buy-rated parcel beneficiary.

  Risks

  Volatile trade flows and uncertain shipping demand.

Key data

• China-to-US laden vessels-5% WoW; +5% YoYWeek ended September 17; prior week's year-on-year growth was +8%.
• China-to-US TEUs-5% WoW; +5% YoYWeek ended September 17.
• Planned Port of Los Angeles TEUs-8% latest week; +30% next week; -1% two weeks outExpected year-on-year growth is +40% next week and +16% two weeks out.
• China/East Asia-to-US West Coast ocean rates+3.5% WoW; 3.7x YoYLatest weekly reading.
• West Coast truckload load availability-24% WoW; -37% YoYTruckload spot rates excluding fuel were +11% YoY and -3% WoW.
• Big Three West Coast port volumes+5% sequentially; -5% YoYJune-to-July movement; the historical July sequential average is +6%.
• Upstream and downstream inventory readings49 upstream; 61.9 downstreamAugust upstream B2B inventories contracted versus 59 in July, while retail inventories expanded after 46.3.
• Estimated monthly import-value changeBroadly unchanged YoY in AugustFollows an estimated approximately -$1.82 billion YoY change in July and an average +$3.16 billion YoY increase in May and June.

Impact & implications

The report views the expected LA import rebound as a potentially constructive signal for West Coast freight, although it does not treat it as confirmation of a durable recovery. Goldman Sachs says transport earnings recovery ultimately depends on stronger volumes, particularly commercial and manufacturing freight, and sees domestic manufacturing, reshoring, supply-chain diversification and easier monetary policy as possible supports into 2026.

Risks

• Tariff uncertainty and an uncertain geopolitical backdrop may continue to disrupt shipper ordering and freight flows.
• Weekly high-frequency indicators are volatile, timing-sensitive and subject to revision.
• Global capacity shifts, potential surcharges and geopolitical events may keep ocean freight rates choppy.
• A Red Sea reopening could add effective ocean capacity and make year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons more difficult.

What to watch

• September import levels and whether they indicate restocking, an early peak season or fading pull-forward demand.
• Whether lower effective tariff rates change import-order decisions.
• Planned Port of Los Angeles TEUs next week and two weeks out.
• Whether West Coast trucking loads and rates stabilize as import and order activity develop.
• Air-freight capacity and rate effects from Gulf-region disruptions and jet-fuel prices.
• The pace of higher-margin commercial and manufacturing freight-volume growth into 2026.