Forward Imports at the Port of Los Angeles Are Recovering, Supporting the Transportation-Cycle Recovery Thesis Despite Persistently High Near-Term Volatility

Overview

This report uses weekly and, in part, daily high-frequency indicators to track the impact of US tariff policy on global supply chains, trans-Pacific trade, and the US freight market. The latest data show a rebound in year-over-year growth for China-to-US laden vessels and TEUs, while planned imports at the Port of Los Angeles remain positive for the coming week, indicating continued support from restocking and peak-season shipping demand. However, the indicators contain significant short-term noise, and tariff policy, geopolitical events, and global capacity reallocation could still drive substantial volatility.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes that earnings and valuation recovery in the transportation sector will ultimately depend on freight-volume growth, particularly higher-margin B2B, commercial, and manufacturing freight flows. Although tariff uncertainty drove demand pull-forward and weighed on transportation-sector performance in 2025, the institution remains optimistic that 2026 will bring a more favorable and broader volume inflection point. Potential catalysts include rate cuts, increased US manufacturing investment, accelerated depreciation policies, reshoring or nearshoring, and corporate adoption of "China Plus One/Plus Two" supply-chain strategies.

Analysis framework

The report integrates high-frequency indicators including vessel tracking, TEUs, planned port volumes, ocean freight rates, air freight, rail intermodal, truck spot rates, and supply-chain congestion, supplemented by monthly estimates of port throughput, inventories, and trade value, to assess the impact of trade policy on volumes, pricing, and transportation-sector conditions. The report emphasizes interpreting data in the context of multi-week trends and avoiding conclusions based solely on a single week's data.

Methodology notes

• High-Frequency Data TrackingTariff Impact Tracker

  Uses real-time or near-real-time freight indicators to observe the impact of tariffs on trade flows and supply chains.

  Covers China-to-US laden vessels, TEUs, planned imports at the Port of Los Angeles, freight rates, rail, and truck data; individual weekly readings may contain noise due to publication timing and seasonality.

• Trade Value EstimationTEU-Based Implied Trade Value Change Estimate

  Multiplies year-over-year TEU changes by estimated cargo value per container to infer year-over-year changes in monthly import value.

  The report derives an estimated cargo value of approximately $57,000 per TEU using historical trade values and laden TEUs at major US ports, and uses this to estimate changes in import value; the result is a model estimate rather than official statistics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US Transportation and Logistics Sector

  Benefits from freight-volume recovery and supply-chain restructuring

  Strengths

  Improving year-over-year China-to-US freight volumes, recovering forward imports at the Port of Los Angeles, reshoring of manufacturing, and expectations for rate cuts may all support demand.

  Weaknesses

  Short-term high-frequency data are volatile, and some volumes may reflect pull-forward shipments rather than sustainable demand.

  Comparison

  Express, freight-forwarding, and cross-regional logistics operators are generally better positioned to adapt to supply-chain migration than operators focused on a single route or cargo type.

  Risks

  Tariff escalation, geopolitical disruption, changes in global capacity, weakening demand, and pressure from year-over-year freight-rate comparisons.

• FedEx Corp.

  A parcel and express beneficiary cited in the report as Buy-rated

  Strengths

  Rapid-turn logistics capabilities, air-freight exposure, and a global network help customers adjust their supply chains.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to macro freight volumes and the cost environment.

  Comparison

  Like UPS, it is a parcel logistics operator with a global network.

  Risks

  Trade volumes falling short of expectations, rising fuel and capacity costs, and international-business volatility.

• United Parcel Service Inc.

  A parcel and express beneficiary cited in the report as Buy-rated

  Strengths

  Rapid-turn logistics capabilities and extensive global coverage can support customers in managing supply-chain adjustments.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to retail demand, price competition, and network utilization.

  Comparison

  Like FedEx, it is a favored parcel-sector name in the report.

  Risks

  Weak end demand, lower capacity utilization, rising costs, and tariff-driven changes in trade flows.

Key data

• China-to-US Laden Vessels+6% year over year, +0.5% week over weekFor the most recent week through August 13, 2026; the prior week's year-over-year change was +5%.
• China-to-US TEUs+4% year over year, +6% week over weekThrough August 13, 2026; the prior week's year-over-year change was -6%.
• Planned TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles+24% week over week and +23% year over year next weekTwo weeks out, TEUs are expected to be -6% week over week and roughly flat year over year.
• China/East Asia-to-US West Coast Container Freight Rates+9% week over week, +283% year over yearThrough August 14, 2026; geopolitics and capacity adjustments may increase subsequent volatility.
• US West Coast Rail Intermodal+4% year over yearBelow the prior week's +6% year-over-year growth.
• US West Coast Truck Spot Rates Excluding Fuel+29% year over year, -7% week over weekFreight availability was -2% week over week and -4% year over year.
• Supply Chain Congestion Index2, -1% week over weekOverall fluidity is close to the pre-pandemic baseline.
• Monthly Volumes at the Three Major US West Coast Ports+12% year over year in June, +5% versus MayThe month-over-month performance exceeded the historical seasonal norm of -3%.
• Implied Change in Import Value in JulyApproximately -$1.82 billion year over yearBased on year-over-year TEU changes and estimated cargo value per container; June was estimated at approximately +$1.55 billion year over year.

Impact & implications

The year-over-year improvement in forward imports and trans-Pacific freight volumes supports demand expectations for ports, rail intermodal, trucking, freight forwarding, and express parcel businesses. Higher freight rates can improve earnings opportunities for certain ocean shipping and freight-forwarding businesses, but year-over-year comparisons, a potential increase in effective capacity from a Red Sea reopening, and changes in trade policy could cause divergence in freight-rate and earnings performance. For transportation stocks, sustained, high-quality volume growth is more important than a one-week increase in freight rates.

Risks

• Tariff policy and global trade rules remain highly uncertain.
• Geopolitical events could alter ocean and air capacity allocation and amplify freight-rate volatility.
• High-frequency weekly data are subject to timing effects, revisions, and noise, and cannot independently represent the trend.
• Pull-forward shipments or restocking may borrow from future demand, resulting in a peak season below seasonal norms.
• If Red Sea routes reopen, additional effective capacity could depress ocean freight rates.
• Weakening US consumption, manufacturing activity, or corporate capital expenditure could delay the transportation-volume inflection point.

What to watch

• Whether actual and planned August TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles deliver year-over-year growth.
• Whether year-over-year growth in China-to-US vessels and TEUs continues to improve.
• Whether throughput at major Chinese ports can turn positive after recent year-over-year declines.
• The durability of container freight rates amid capacity changes and geopolitical disruptions.
• Whether West Coast rail intermodal, truck freight availability, and spot rates improve in tandem.
• Whether inventories, import value, and peak-season shipping patterns indicate sustained restocking rather than a temporary pull-forward.
• The trajectory of US rate cuts, manufacturing investment, reshoring, and nearshoring policy progress.