Goldman Sachs Tariff Impact Tracker: US import outlook remained relatively positive at end-May

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs US tariff impact tracking report focused on how tariff policy uncertainty affects US imports, global supply chains, and transportation-related assets. The report believes that, as of the end of May and into early June, the import outlook remains relatively positive, especially with forward-looking Port of LA TEU growth still in the double digits year over year. However, the report also emphasizes that weekly data are noisy, and part of the current strong YoY performance reflects the low base effect after Liberation Day, so it remains necessary to watch whether June cargo flows can continue.

Core views

The report's core judgment is that trade uncertainty remains high, especially because the policy path after the expiration of Sec. 122 tariffs is still unclear, which may affect medium- to long-term freight planning; in the short term, some countries may accelerate exports to the US as effective tariff rates decline, leading to restocking and front-loaded shipments. Regarding transportation stocks, Goldman Sachs still favors the cycle recovery thesis, arguing that freight volume is the key to an earnings trough and upward revision cycle; rate cuts, US manufacturing investment, tax depreciation incentives, reshoring, and supply-chain diversification may support improved domestic freight flows in 2026.

Analysis framework

The report uses cross-validation across high-frequency weekly and some daily data to assess tariff impacts, including loaded vessels from China to the US, TEUs, planned import volumes at the Port of LA, throughput at major Chinese ports, ocean and air freight prices, US West Coast rail intermodal, trucking capacity and spot rates, supply-chain congestion indexes, and inventory and import value estimates. The report explicitly cautions against drawing conclusions from single-week changes alone and recommends combining multi-week trends with cross-checks across different transportation modes.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency trade data trackingUS Tariff Impact Tracker

  Use multi-source high-frequency data to track tariffs' impact on supply chains and freight flows

  The framework combines indicators for vessels, TEUs, ports, ocean freight rates, air freight, rail intermodal, trucking, congestion, and inventories to observe in as close to real time as possible the impact of tariff policy on US imports and transportation demand.

• Import value estimationTEU value conversion method

  Estimate changes in import value using YoY TEU changes and estimated value per container

  Referring to 2022 US seaborne trade value and loaded TEU volumes, the report estimates each TEU at about $52,000, then inflates that by roughly 3% to about $57,000, and multiplies it by YoY TEU changes to estimate YoY changes in monthly import value.

• Equity research disclosure frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock characteristics across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and integrated metrics

  The disclosure appendix explains that Goldman Sachs uses dimensions such as Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated to assess a stock's position relative to the market and industry peers, but the main body of this report is more focused on macro and transportation high-frequency data tracking.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US transportation and logistics stocks

  Tariff uncertainty affects transport volumes and earnings cycles through import timing, restocking, and supply-chain planning.

  Strengths

  Rate-cut expectations, manufacturing investment, reshoring, nearshoring, and China Plus 1/2 strategies may support freight volume improvement in 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly data are highly noisy, and part of the current strong YoY growth reflects the low base after Liberation Day.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on trucking stocks last year; parcel companies UPS and FDX are described as Buy, with advantages in fast logistics and global networks.

  Risks

  Uncertain tariff path, consumer demand squeezed by energy costs, and higher costs from geopolitical conflicts.

• Ocean containers and ocean freight rates

  Directly reflect Asia-to-US imports, front-loading, capacity adjustments, and tariff expectations.

  Strengths

  Forward-looking Port of LA TEUs remain strong YoY, and short-term import data are still showing positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  Although rates from China/East Asia to the US West Coast rose +51% WoW, they remain -12% YoY.

  Comparison

  The report believes the Strait of Hormuz is not a core corridor for liner networks, so a supply-side shock there may not be as significant as the Red Sea crisis.

  Risks

  Fuel costs, surcharges, geopolitical conflicts, and an increase in effective capacity from the reopening of the Red Sea.

• Air freight and parcel logistics

  Fast-logistics demand can reflect supply-chain adjustments and higher timeliness requirements.

  Strengths

  Air freight weight and rates from Asia Pacific to North America rose +5% and +1%, respectively, on the latest two-weeks-on-two-weeks basis; UPS and FDX have global networks and rapid-turn capability.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly rate visibility is limited, and aviation capacity and fuel costs change quickly.

  Comparison

  Relative to ocean shipping, air freight is better able to capture demand for urgent replenishment and supply-chain switching.

  Risks

  Constrained air cargo capacity in the Gulf states, higher jet fuel prices, and demand pullback.

• Freight forwarding and customs brokerage services

  Tariff volatility and supply-chain switching may increase demand for customs brokerage, route reconfiguration, and forwarding services.

  Strengths

  Forwarders such as EXPD and CHRW may benefit from trade volatility and increased customs brokerage demand.

  Weaknesses

  YoY comparisons for ocean freight rates may be more challenging.

  Comparison

  Compared with carriers, forwarders benefit more from complexity and volatility than from simple freight-rate increases.

  Risks

  The reopening of the Red Sea may increase effective capacity and reduce rate elasticity.

• Rail intermodal and trucking

  US West Coast import volumes flow through to rail intermodal, trucking capacity, and spot rates.

  Strengths

  Truck spot rates and availability still have YoY support, and the thesis of a recovery from the bottom of the transportation cycle remains in place.

  Weaknesses

  US West Coast rail intermodal was -1% YoY in the latest week, a clear weakening from +14% the prior week.

  Comparison

  The trucking market may reflect short-term restocking and regional freight-flow changes faster than rail intermodal.

  Risks

  If import growth proves unsustainable or consumer demand weakens, the recovery in transport volumes may be delayed.

Key data

• Loaded vessels from China to the US+1% WoW, +3% YoYFor the week ending June 4; the prior week's YoY reading was +23%, showing a slowdown in YoY growth.
• Planned TEUs at the Port of LA+13% WoW; followed by expected +6% and +4%YoY growth is still expected to be strong, at +21.5% next week and +34% two weeks later.
• TEUs from China to the US+4% YoY, -2.5% sequentialFor the week of May 29 to June 4; the prior week's YoY reading was +24.5%.
• Exports to the US from Mainland China and Asia ex-Mainland ChinaLoaded vessels about +8% and +9% YoY; TEUs about +9% and +4% YoYThe report uses the combined total of Mainland China, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan as a proxy for Asian exports to the US.
• Weekly throughput at major Chinese ports+10% w/w, +7% YoYLatest weekly data through May 31; the prior week's readings were -4% w/w and -3% YoY, respectively.
• Ocean container freight rates from China/East Asia to the US West Coast+51% WoW, -12% YoYThe report expects possible volatility in coming weeks due to capacity adjustments, surcharges, fuel costs, and pre-peak-season front-loading.
• Air freight weight and rates from Asia Pacific to North America+5% and +1%On a WorldACD two-weeks-on-two-weeks basis; the report views changes in air freight weight as an important indicator of fast-logistics demand.
• US West Coast rail intermodal-1% YoYThe prior week was +14% YoY, indicating significant weekly volatility.
• US West Coast trucking indicatorsCapacity index -12% w/w, +42% YoY; spot rate chart annotation +8% w/w, +32% YoYThe summary text also shows other measures for truck availability and rates, but overall it suggests the trucking market still has YoY support while weekly changes remain unstable.
• Supply chain congestion indexRemained at 2, bottleneck index -5% w/wOverall fluidity is close to the pre-pandemic baseline.
• Big Three port volumes-1% YoY, +11% sequentialCovers the Ports of LA, Long Beach, and Oakland; the March-to-April sequential change was close to the historical seasonal level of +12%.
• Estimated April import valueAbout -$1.2 billion YoYThe March estimate was about -$0.5 billion, a slight YoY decline.
• Logistics Managers Index inventoriesUpstream 57.9, downstream 53.3In April, upstream B2B inventories rose from 51.7 in March to 57.9; downstream retail inventories fell from 62.5 in March to 53.3.
• Inventory cost index74.7Lower than 76.2 in March, but still in expansion territory.
• Inventory-to-sales ratioRetail 1.09, manufacturing 1.51, wholesale 1.21March data were below February's 1.11, 1.52, and 1.23, showing no obvious increase similar to the Trump 1.0 period.

Impact & implications

The report's investment implication leans toward 'the transportation cycle recovery remains worth expecting, but it is necessary to distinguish between demand improvement and rate increases driven by costs.' If June import and TEU data maintain positive growth, that could reinforce support for freight volumes from restocking and supply-chain replanning; if rate increases are driven mainly by fuel, surcharges, or cost pressure caused by geopolitical conflicts, then the implications for carriers and consumer demand may be more complex. For stocks, freight volume improvement matters more than short-term price volatility. Trucking, parcel, air freight, and some forwarders may benefit from faster turnover and supply-chain adjustments, but YoY freight-rate comparisons and potential capacity releases remain constraints.

Risks

• The policy path after the expiration of Sec. 122 tariffs is unclear, which may affect medium- to long-term freight planning.
• High-frequency weekly data are volatile, and single-week positive or negative changes may be driven by timing, holidays, and low bases.
• Geopolitical conflicts may push up ocean and air freight prices through fuel, surcharges, and capacity adjustments.
• Rising energy costs may suppress US consumer demand and indirectly drag on global freight demand.
• The reopening of the Red Sea may increase effective capacity and pressure ocean freight rates.
• If current import growth mainly reflects front-loading or low-base effects rather than genuine end demand, freight volumes may fall back later.

What to watch

• Whether vessel and TEU data from China to the US can maintain positive growth in June.
• Whether the Port of LA's planned TEUs for the next one to two weeks will meet the expected +21.5% and +34% YoY growth.
• The respective contributions of demand, fuel, surcharges, and capacity constraints to the rise in ocean freight rates.
• Policy arrangements after the expiration of Sec. 122 tariffs and their impact on corporate restocking and procurement plans.
• Whether US West Coast rail intermodal, truck spot rates, and capacity indicators continue to improve.
• Whether LMI inventories, inventory costs, and inventory-to-sales ratios point to a broader restocking cycle.
• Geopolitical conflicts, Gulf states air cargo capacity, and disturbances related to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.