LA imports are projected to dip next week before rebounding sharply two weeks later, amid volatile tariff-driven freight flows

Overview

This weekly tracker assesses how tariff uncertainty is affecting global supply chains and US freight transportation. The latest readings point to choppy near-term imports and freight demand, but Goldman Sachs continues to see conditions that could support a more durable transport-volume inflection into 2026.

Core views

The immediate data signal is mixed and volatile. Laden vessels from China to the US fell 11% week-on-week in the week ended September 10, while increasing 3% year-on-year, a sharp deceleration from 26% year-on-year growth in the prior week. China-US TEUs similarly rose 3% year-on-year versus 25% previously but fell 12% sequentially. Goldman Sachs notes that these high-frequency measures are noisy and subject to timing effects and revisions, so it considers multi-week trends more informative than any individual weekly print. Port Optimizer data indicate a near-term swing in imports into the Port of Los Angeles. Planned TEUs rose 11% week-on-week in the latest week, but are projected to decline 13% in the following week before rising 36% two weeks out. The corresponding year-on-year outlook is a 12% decline next week followed by 39% growth two weeks later. Goldman Sachs identifies September import patterns as important evidence on whether shippers are restocking, whether peak shipping began unusually early in the spring, and how lower effective tariff rates may be changing import decisions. Other transport indicators remain comparatively resilient. West Coast rail intermodal volumes increased 20% year-on-year after 7% growth in the prior week, although the institution flags Labor Day timing as an important distortion. Ocean container rates from China/East Asia to the US West Coast rose 3% week-on-week and were 3.4 times higher year-on-year; Goldman Sachs expects further volatility as geopolitical events, capacity shifts, potential surcharges and an earlier peak season affect the market. West Coast truckload spot rates excluding fuel fell 5% week-on-week but were up 18% year-on-year, while load availability was unchanged sequentially and up 6% year-on-year. The tracker also shows divergent regional and inventory conditions. Mainland China-to-US laden vessels and TEUs were each up 5% year-on-year on average, compared with declines of 5.5% for vessels and 12% for TEUs from Asia excluding mainland China. Chinese major-port throughput rebounded 10% week-on-week and rose 5% year-on-year after a weak prior week. In the US, August upstream business-to-business inventories contracted at 49 versus 59 in July, while downstream retail inventories expanded at 61.9 after 46.3. Inventory costs rose to 78.6 from 77. Goldman Sachs estimates that imports were largely unchanged year-on-year in August after an estimated roughly $1.82 billion year-on-year decline in July, following an average $3.16 billion year-on-year increase in May and June. Goldman Sachs links the uneven data to prior tariff-related pull-forward demand and continuing shipper uncertainty over production and inventory orders, which it says contributed to broad transport underperformance through much of 2025 and could produce a sub-seasonal peak season in fourth-quarter reporting. Nevertheless, it remains positive on the cycle-recovery story over the medium to longer term. Its potential catalysts include forecast Federal Reserve rate cuts, clearer shipper planning after the April 2, 2026 Liberation Day anniversary, increased US manufacturing investment, bonus-depreciation incentives, reshoring or nearshoring, and supply-chain diversification under China Plus One or Two strategies. These factors could raise domestic freight flows and support a fuller volume inflection in 2026. For transport equities, the report says freight forwarders such as EXPD and CHRW could benefit from volatility and higher customs-brokerage demand, although ocean-rate comparisons may become difficult year-on-year and a Red Sea reopening could add effective capacity. It also identifies parcel operators UPS and FedEx, both Buy-rated, as potential beneficiaries because their fast-cycle logistics, air-freight exposure and global networks can help shippers shift supply chains.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines weekly and daily freight indicators—vessels, TEUs, port bookings, rail volumes, trucking loads and rates, air-cargo measures, and congestion—with monthly port and inventory data. It uses the indicators collectively and over multiple weeks to judge tariff-related changes in trade flows, inventory behavior, freight pricing and the transport-cycle outlook.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  High-frequency tracking of shipping, port, rail, trucking and air-cargo volumes and pricing

  The report uses changes in freight volumes, capacity and rates to assess demand conditions, supply-chain fluidity and likely effects on transport activity.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Implied trade-value estimate based on year-on-year TEU changes and estimated value per TEU

  Goldman Sachs estimates imported-value changes by multiplying the change in container volumes by an estimated inflation-adjusted value per loaded container.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Expeditors International (EXPD)

  Freight forwarder cited as a potential beneficiary of trade volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential benefit from volatility and customs-brokerage demand.

  Comparison

  Cited alongside CHRW as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons may become challenging.

• C.H. Robinson (CHRW)

  Freight forwarder cited as a potential beneficiary of trade volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential benefit from volatility and customs-brokerage demand.

  Comparison

  Cited alongside EXPD as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons may become challenging.

• United Parcel Service (UPS)

  Potential parcel-logistics beneficiary of supply-chain shifts; cited as Buy-rated.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics and a large global footprint that can help shippers shift supply chains.

  Comparison

  Cited alongside FedEx as a Buy-rated parcel beneficiary.

• FedEx Corp. (FDX)

  Potential parcel-logistics beneficiary of supply-chain shifts; cited as Buy-rated.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics, air-freight exposure and a large global footprint.

  Comparison

  Cited alongside UPS as a Buy-rated parcel beneficiary.

Key data

• China-to-US laden vessels-11% WoW; +3% YoYWeek ended September 10; year-on-year growth slowed from +26% in the prior week.
• China-to-US TEUs-12% sequentially; +3% YoYYear-on-year growth slowed from +25% in the prior week.
• Planned Port of Los Angeles TEUs-13% WoW next week; +36% WoW two weeks outExpected year-on-year changes are -12% next week and +39% two weeks out.
• West Coast intermodal traffic+20% YoYVersus +7% in the prior week; Labor Day timing affects the comparison.
• Ocean container rates to the US West Coast+3% WoW; 3.4x YoYChina/East Asia to US West Coast rates in the most recent week.
• West Coast truckload spot rates excluding fuel-5% WoW; +18% YoYTruckload load availability was unchanged week-on-week and +6% year-on-year.
• Big Three West Coast port volumes-5.2% YoY; +5.1% sequentially in JulyThe sequential increase was close to the five-year seasonal average of +6.2%.
• Supply Chain Congestion Tracker2The bottleneck index fell 1% week-on-week and fluidity was near the pre-Covid baseline.

Impact & implications

The report interprets the data as evidence of unstable near-term trade and freight patterns rather than a clear one-week trend. It argues that sustained growth in imports, intermodal volumes and order activity could stabilize West Coast trucking and lift rates and loads later in the year, while a broader recovery in higher-margin commercial and manufacturing freight could support transport earnings improvement into 2026.

Risks

• Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty may continue to disrupt global trade flows and shipper inventory decisions.
• Weekly freight data can be volatile, noisy and subject to revisions, limiting the reliability of single-week conclusions.
• A Red Sea reopening could add effective ocean capacity, while geopolitical events and surcharges could keep ocean rates volatile.
• Holiday timing, including Labor Day, can distort year-on-year comparisons.

What to watch

• September import patterns at the Port of Los Angeles for evidence of restocking, peak-season timing and tariff-related import decisions.
• Whether planned LA TEU growth materializes after the projected next-week decline and two-week rebound.
• West Coast trucking loads and spot rates for signs that positive imports and intermodal activity are translating into stabilization.
• Order activity, global capacity shifts, geopolitical developments, air capacity and jet-fuel pricing.
• Progress in US manufacturing investment, reshoring or nearshoring, and China Plus One or Two supply-chain strategies.