China-to-U.S. freight high-frequency data weakens; tariff uncertainty continues to disrupt restocking and transportation cadence

Overview

This is a high-frequency tracker of the impact of U.S. tariffs, focused on how tariff-policy uncertainty affects China and other Asian exports to the U.S., the U.S. West Coast ports, ocean freight rates, rail intermodal, trucking, air cargo, and inventory behavior. The report says that in the most recent week both China-to-U.S. fully loaded vessels and TEU weakened, and that planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to decline next week. The reasons include a higher comparison base after the pull-forward shipping that followed last year's Liberation Day pause, as well as continued uncertainty around restocking decisions amid the current Sec. 122 tariff and geopolitical backdrop.

Core views

The report's core view is: first, trade uncertainty remains the dominant variable for global freight, which can affect medium- to long-term transportation planning and may also encourage exports to the U.S. from countries with lower effective tariffs; second, China-to-U.S. freight flows slowed both MoM and YoY in the most recent week, and the YoY comparison pressure is expected to be even heavier next week; third, weekly data are highly volatile, so a single week's move should not be over-interpreted, and the sequential trend in restocking, pull-forward shipping, and freight rates through June and July should be monitored instead; fourth, despite short-term tariff disruptions suppressing visibility, Goldman remains constructive on a transportation-cycle recovery and believes that 2026 freight growth, U.S. manufacturing investment, the rate-cut cycle, and nearshoring/re-shoring could together support freight demand.

Analysis framework

The report combines high-frequency data with lagged monthly data. The high-frequency portion tracks China-to-U.S. fully loaded vessels, TEU, planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles, ocean container freight rates, Asia-Pacific to North America air cargo weight and rates, West Coast rail intermodal, truck spot rates and load availability, and supply-chain congestion indexes. The monthly portion tracks throughput at the three major U.S. West Coast ports, Shanghai-to-Los Angeles air freight rates, estimated TEU and import value, logistics manager index inventory levels and inventory costs, and inventory-to-sales ratios.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency trade trackingUS Tariff Impact Tracker

  Use weekly and some daily data to observe the effect of tariffs on supply chains and freight flows

  The report emphasizes that weekly data are noisy, but combining multiple indicators can help identify tariff-related trends, especially for China-to-U.S. vessels, TEU, and U.S. West Coast transportation prices.

• Ocean freight volume measurementLaden Container Ship Vessels and TEU Tracking

  Measure China-to-U.S. ocean freight flows using fully loaded ships and TEU

  A laden ship is defined as a cargo vessel whose draft exceeds 75% of maximum draft when departing for the U.S., while TEU measures container capacity utilization on vessels. Both use a rolling 15-day window and may be revised.

• Import value estimationEstimated Value per TEU

  Estimate YoY import value changes from TEU growth and estimated value per box

  Based on roughly $2.3 trillion of U.S. seaborne trade in 2022 and 44 million laden TEU at the top 25 ports, the report estimates about $52,000 per TEU and then rolls forward three years at about 3% inflation to about $57,000 per TEU.

• Transportation equity factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Assess stocks using growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  The report discloses that Goldman’s factor framework uses analyst forecasts for sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation multiples to compute percentiles, but this report mainly references the framework for disclosure rather than as a core conclusion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. transportation stocks

  Changes in tariffs and trade flows affect freight demand, pricing, and the earnings cycle

  Strengths

  If 2026 freight growth, U.S. manufacturing investment, and the rate-cut cycle materialize, transportation stocks could enter an earnings-upgrade phase after a cyclical bottom.

  Weaknesses

  Near-term freight volumes are affected by tariff uncertainty and the high base after earlier pull-forward shipping, and weekly data are very volatile.

  Comparison

  The report says the trucking sector was upgraded last year, and the current improvement case depends more on a freight-volume trough and supply stability.

  Risks

  Tariff-policy reversals, delayed restocking, weak consumer demand, and overly rapid capacity release.

• Trucking

  Directly affected by West Coast freight availability, spot rates, and load availability

  Strengths

  U.S. West Coast truck spot rates are up 50% YoY and load availability is up 79% YoY, showing clear improvement from last year's low base.

  Weaknesses

  Load availability is down 3% MoM, so the near term could still be dragged by slower import cadence.

  Comparison

  Compared with ocean shipping, trucking is closer to inland distribution and restocking chains and may reflect domestic freight flow more quickly.

  Risks

  Lower import volume, excess capacity, and volatility in fuel and labor costs.

• Freight forwarding and customs brokerage companies

  Trade volatility and tariff changes may increase demand for customs brokerage and supply-chain adjustment services

  Strengths

  The report says freight forwarders such as EXPD and CHRW may benefit from volatility and surging customs brokerage demand.

  Weaknesses

  YoY comparisons in ocean freight rates may be challenging.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure transportation assets, freight forwarders are more sensitive to service revenue from complex trade routes and supply-chain restructuring.

  Risks

  Rate declines, a Red Sea reopening that increases effective capacity, and insufficient trade volume to offset the rise in service demand.

• Parcel and air cargo

  Fast-cycle logistics and global networks can help shippers adjust supply chains

  Strengths

  The report says both UPS and FDX are rated Buy and they have advantages in fast-cycle logistics, air cargo, and global networks.

  Weaknesses

  Visibility is limited because air freight rates and capacity are affected by geopolitics, flight openings, and fuel prices.

  Comparison

  Compared with ocean shipping, air and parcel networks are better suited to urgent transport during high-timeliness and supply-chain switching phases.

  Risks

  Demand weakness, air-capacity recovery, and rising fuel prices compressing margins.

• U.S. West Coast ports and rail intermodal

  They carry Asia-to-U.S. imports and are a key channel for observing tariff and restocking behavior

  Strengths

  West Coast rail intermodal was still up 11% YoY in the most recent week, and the three major ports were up 10.9% MoM in April, broadly in line with seasonality.

  Weaknesses

  The three major ports were down 1.0% YoY in April, and planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to turn negative YoY over the next two weeks.

  Comparison

  Monthly port data lag but are smoother, while high-frequency TEU and vessel data are timelier but noisier.

  Risks

  Slower China imports, pull-forward shipping that leads to later pullbacks, and congestion or capacity mismatches across ports and inland networks.

Key data

• China-to-U.S. fully loaded vesselsMost recent week: -4% MoM, -6% YoYJune 12 to June 18; the prior week was +10% YoY and +14% MoM.
• China-to-U.S. TEUMost recent week: -3% MoM, -4% YoYJune 12 to June 18; the prior week was +14% YoY.
• Bloomberg China-to-U.S. week 24 TEU509,217 TEU, -4.4% YoY, -2.8% MoMWeek 24 covers June 12 to June 18, 2026.
• Bloomberg China-to-U.S. week 24 vessel count61 vessels, -5.6% YoY, -3.8% MoMThe same table shows 63 vessels in week 23, with +9.7% YoY growth.
• Planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles123,527 TEU for the week of June 19, +1.4% MoM; 116,159 TEU expected for the week of June 26, -6.0% MoM; 124,506 TEU expected for the week of July 3, +7.2% MoMPort Optimizer data through June 19, 2026, including forecasts for the next two weeks.
• Planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles, YoYThe week of June 26 is expected at -0.3%, and the week of July 3 at -5.9%The main text summarizes this as about -0.5% and -6%, while the table shows -0.3% and -5.9%.
• Ocean container freight rate from China/East Asia to the U.S. West CoastMoM +19%, YoY +3%Weekly freight rates as of June 19, 2026.
• Asia-Pacific to North America air cargo weight and ratesTwo-week over two-week: +3% and +2WorldACD data through June 11, 2026.
• U.S. West Coast rail intermodalMost recent week: +11% YoYThe prior week was +16%; data through June 13, 2026.
• U.S. West Coast truck spot rateExcluding fuel: +0.5% MoM, +50% YoYtruckstop.com data through June 15, 2026.
• U.S. West Coast truck load availability indexMoM -3%, YoY +79%This indicates that demand or available freight remains clearly higher than last year.
• Supply-chain congestion indexHeld at 2; bottleneck index -4% MoMThe report says overall fluidity is close to the pre-pandemic baseline.
• Total volume at the three major U.S. West Coast ports in AprilYoY -1.0%, MoM +10.9%Broadly in line with the five-year seasonal average MoM increase of +12.2%.
• Shanghai-to-Los Angeles air freight rateApril: +25% MoMMarch was +2% MoM, and the report says geopolitics and fuel prices may continue to affect May.
• Estimated change in import valueApril import value may have declined by about $1.2 billion YoYThe March estimate was a slight YoY decline of about $500 million.
• LMI inventory levelsApril upstream B2B inventory 57.9, March 51.7; downstream retail inventory 53.3, March 62.5Upstream expansion is accelerating, while downstream expansion continues but is slowing.
• LMI inventory cost indexApril 74.7, March 76.2Inventory costs remain in expansion territory.
• Inventory-to-sales ratioIn March, retailers/manufacturers/wholesalers were 1.09/1.51/1.21Below February's 1.11/1.52/1.23, and there has not yet been a pronounced rise like in the Trump 1.0 period.

Impact & implications

In the short term, the weakening of China-to-U.S. freight and planned volumes at the Port of Los Angeles suggests that tariff disruption, the high comparison base after earlier pull-forward shipping, and hesitation around restocking are suppressing visibility; meanwhile, higher ocean, air, and truck rates indicate that pockets of capacity and demand may still be tight in the near term. In the medium term, if the tariff path becomes clearer, U.S. manufacturing investment accelerates, supply chains shift toward China Plus 1 or 2, and the rate-cut cycle continues, transportation demand could recover more steadily in 2026. For investors, trucking, parcel delivery, air cargo, and freight forwarding may benefit from volatility and supply-chain restructuring, but the high YoY base in ocean freight rates and the potential increase in effective capacity from a possible reopening of the Red Sea route could limit some price elasticity.

Risks

• The policy path after the Sec. 122 tariff expiration is unclear, which could affect medium- to long-term freight planning.
• Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty may cause shippers to delay production, ordering, and restocking decisions.
• Pull-forward shipping after last year's Liberation Day pause has raised the comparison base, making China import YoY growth harder to improve over the next few weeks.
• Weekly and daily high-frequency data are inherently volatile, and single-week moves may include timing noise and later revisions.
• If the Red Sea route reopens, effective capacity could increase and weigh on ocean freight rates.
• If consumer demand or U.S. manufacturing investment falls short of expectations, the transportation-cycle recovery could be delayed.
• Air cargo and ocean freight rates are influenced by geopolitics, surcharges, fuel prices, and pre-peak-season front-loading, leaving limited visibility.

What to watch

• Whether China-to-U.S. fully loaded vessels and TEU continue to weaken through June and July or recover after a short pullback.
• Whether the planned TEU forecasts for June 26 and July 3 at the Port of Los Angeles are realized, especially the magnitude of the YoY declines.
• How the U.S. government adjusts tariff policy after the 150-day Sec. 122 tariff window.
• Whether exports to the U.S. from countries with lower effective tariffs begin to show up in the data.
• Whether the 19% MoM increase in ocean freight rates continues or eases as effective capacity rises.
• Whether West Coast rail intermodal, truck load availability, and spot rates can maintain YoY improvement.
• Whether LMI inventory, inventory cost, and inventory-to-sales ratios show that restocking is re-accelerating in retail and manufacturing.
• Whether U.S. manufacturing investment, nearshoring, and China Plus 1 or 2 supply-chain strategies translate into more domestic freight flows.