Short-term Los Angeles import trends diverge, while China-to-US cargo flows remain under pressure

Overview

This report is an update of Goldman Sachs' US Tariff Impact Tracker, focusing on how tariff uncertainty affects global supply chains, US imports, port throughput, ocean freight rates, rail intermodal, trucking, and air freight. The report notes that both fully loaded vessels and TEU from China to the US weakened sharply in the latest week, while imports at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to show a divergent pattern over the next two weeks, first rising and then declining. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that weekly data are noisy and should be interpreted alongside multi-week trends to assess how shipper restocking, an early peak season, and changes in effective tariff rates are affecting import decisions.

Core views

The core views include: first, trade policy uncertainty remains prominent, and the policy path after the expiration of Sec. 122 tariffs is unclear, which may affect medium- to long-term freight planning; second, countries with lower effective tariff rates may increase exports to the US, but such changes may appear in Mainland China freight data with a lag; third, short-term ocean freight, port, and air freight data will remain volatile, so conclusions should not be drawn from a single week of data alone; fourth, the medium- to long-term opportunity in transportation stocks still depends on a 2026 freight recovery, reshoring of manufacturing, nearshoring, supply chain reconfiguration, and support from a rate-cutting cycle.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of high-frequency weekly data and lagged monthly data, covering fully loaded vessels from China to the US, TEU, planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles, ocean freight rates, air freight weight and pricing, rail intermodal, truck spot rates and available loads, supply chain congestion indices, and monthly import data for the three major West Coast ports. The report also uses YoY changes in TEU and estimated cargo value per container to infer changes in import trade value, in order to assess the implications of cargo flows for the economy and transportation demand.

Methodology notes

• High-Frequency Logistics TrackingUS Tariff Impact Tracker

  Uses weekly and some daily logistics data to observe the immediate impact of tariff policy on supply chains and US freight flows.

  The report tracks indicators such as vessels and TEU from China to the US, planned imports at the Port of Los Angeles, ocean freight rates, rail intermodal, truck loads and rates, and air freight, while cautioning that weekly data are noisy and should be used together with multi-week trends.

• Trade Value EstimationTEU Cargo Value Estimation Method

  Infers YoY changes in monthly import value by multiplying YoY changes in TEU by estimated cargo value per container.

  Referring to BTS data, the report states that the average cargo value per loaded TEU across the top 25 US ports in 2022 was about $52,000, which is adjusted by roughly 3% inflation to about $57,000, and uses this to estimate that import value in May increased by about $4.8 billion YoY.

• Cycle AssessmentTransportation Cycle Recovery Framework

  Uses freight volume growth, profit troughs, and earnings revision cycles as key criteria for judging a recovery in transportation stocks.

  The report believes that whether transportation stocks can see a more complete recovery in 2026 will mainly depend on improvement in freight volumes, especially the recovery of higher-margin B2B, commercial, and manufacturing flows.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US transportation stocks

  Directly affected by global trade flows, US imports, and restocking cycles.

  Strengths

  If freight volumes, manufacturing flows, and commercial flows improve in 2026, a profit trough and earnings revision cycle may form.

  Weaknesses

  In 2025, uncertainty around tariffs, pull-forward shipping, and delayed shipper decisions still weigh on the sector, and confirmation of the trough remains incomplete.

  Comparison

  Compared with single-week data, transportation stocks should be assessed more through multi-week freight, rate, and inventory signals when judging cycle turning points.

  Risks

  Unclear tariff path, declining imports, reopened capacity, and an early peak season pulling demand forward.

• Trucking companies

  Affected by West Coast load availability, spot rates, and domestic US manufacturing/commercial flows.

  Strengths

  The report notes that trucking was previously upgraded, based on lower recession odds, stronger consumer resilience, and potentially more stable freight volumes and supply.

  Weaknesses

  The recent freight trough remains difficult to confirm, and if import and industrial flows do not persist, the recovery may be delayed.

  Comparison

  Compared with ocean freight pricing, the trucking sector depends more on domestic US freight volumes and supply-demand balance.

  Risks

  Load improvement that proves unsustainable, cost pressures, falling spot rates, and weakening macro demand.

• Freight forwarders EXPD and CHRW

  May benefit from trade volatility, supply chain adjustments, and rising demand for customs brokerage.

  Strengths

  Tariff changes and supply chain reconfiguration may increase customer demand for customs clearance, route adjustment, and freight coordination.

  Weaknesses

  YoY comparisons for ocean freight rates will become more challenging, and if the Red Sea reopens it may increase effective capacity and affect pricing.

  Comparison

  Compared with asset-heavy transportation companies, freight forwarders are more driven by volatility and complexity.

  Risks

  Rate normalization, capacity increases, slower trade activity, and a more conservative customer inventory strategy.

• UPS and FDX

  Parcel and fast-cycle logistics businesses may benefit from supply chain migration and global network demand.

  Strengths

  The report states that both UPS and FDX are rated Buy, with fast-cycle logistics, air freight capability, and large global networks that can help shippers adjust supply chains.

  Weaknesses

  In the short term, they are still affected by volatility in trade flows, air capacity, and fuel costs.

  Comparison

  Compared with ports and the ocean freight chain, parcel express better reflects rapid response capability and the value of global networks.

  Risks

  Air pricing volatility, weaker-than-expected demand, rising costs, and changes in global trade policy.

• US West Coast ports and rail intermodal

  Directly reflects Asia-to-US imports and inland distribution demand.

  Strengths

  Imports at the three major ports in May rose about 30% YoY, and rail intermodal remained positive YoY in the latest week.

  Weaknesses

  Planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles rises first and then falls over the next two weeks, while weekly data are highly volatile.

  Comparison

  Port data are closer to the front end of imports, while rail intermodal reflects inland transportation demand after goods enter the US.

  Risks

  Imports pulled forward too early, declining port throughput, slowing rail intermodal growth, and trade policy shocks.

Key data

• Fully Loaded Vessels from China to the US-19% WoW, -25.5% YoYFor the week ending July 16, 2026, weaker than the previous week's -10% YoY.
• China-to-US TEU-18.3% WoW, about -25.7% YoYAverage weekly TEU in week 28 was 389,719, below 476,766 in week 27.
• Planned TEU at the Port of Los Angeles+3.2% WoW for the week of July 24, -6.9% WoW for the week of July 31Two-week forward-looking Port Optimizer data; YoY figures are -6.6% and +0.3%, respectively.
• Ocean Container Freight Rates-6% WoW, +204% YoYChina/East Asia to North America West Coast rates, with weekly data through July 17, 2026.
• West Coast Rail Intermodal Volume+4% YoYIn the latest week, below +13% YoY in the previous week.
• West Coast Truck Spot Rates+69% YoYExcluding fuel; the report text also shows -6% WoW in the latest week.
• West Coast Available Truck Loads+25% WoW, +1% YoYTruckstop.com West Coast load availability index.
• May Imports at the Three Major West Coast Ports+29.6% YoY, +2.5% MoMIncludes the Port of Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach, and Port of Oakland; the monthly increase was below the 5-year average seasonal gain of +12.0%.
• Estimated May Import ValueAbout +$4.8 billion YoYBased on YoY changes in TEU and an estimated cargo value of about $57,000/TEU.
• LMI Inventory Cost Index84.1Higher than 74.7 in April, indicating faster expansion in inventory costs.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, short-term import data still reflect an unstable restocking pace under tariff and policy uncertainty, and ocean freight and port flows may continue to fluctuate; however, if lower interest rates, US manufacturing investment, reshoring/nearshoring, and China Plus 1 or 2 strategies drive more stable freight growth, the transportation sector could see a stronger cyclical recovery in 2026. The report remains constructive on the medium- to long-term opportunities in trucking, parcel express, air freight, and some freight forwarders, but also warns that a high YoY base for ocean freight rates and an increase in effective capacity from a potential reopening of the Red Sea route could suppress some price elasticity.

Risks

• The policy path after the expiration of Sec. 122 tariffs is unclear, which may affect shippers' medium- to long-term procurement and transportation plans.
• Weekly logistics data are highly volatile, and single-week changes may include timing noise and the impact of data revisions.
• If the early peak season already occurred in spring, subsequent peak-season demand may fall short of normal seasonality.
• If the Red Sea reopens, it may increase effective ocean freight capacity and put pressure on freight rates.
• Geopolitical events, constrained air capacity, and rising fuel prices may continue to disrupt air freight pricing.
• If US manufacturing investment, reshoring, and nearshoring progress fall short of expectations, the domestic freight recovery may be delayed.

What to watch

• Whether vessels and TEU from China to the US continue to decline in the following weeks of July, or whether a restocking recovery emerges.
• Whether the forward-looking planned TEU for the weeks of July 24 and July 31 at the Port of Los Angeles materialize as expected.
• Whether exports to the US from countries with lower effective tariff rates begin to show up in the data.
• The direction of ocean freight rate volatility amid a high YoY base, capacity shifts, and geopolitical events.
• Whether West Coast rail intermodal, available truck loads, and spot rates show sustained improvement.
• Whether US manufacturing investment, reshoring/nearshoring, and China Plus 1 or 2 strategies lead to more stable domestic freight flows.
• Whether LMI inventory, inventory costs, and the inventory-to-sales ratio indicate changes in corporate restocking or destocking pace.