Imports at the Port of Los Angeles to diverge over the next two weeks amid tariff disruption; transportation demand still awaits July restocking signals

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' U.S. tariff impact tracker, using high-frequency weekly data and some lagging monthly data to assess the effects of tariff-policy uncertainty on global supply chains, Asia-to-U.S. trade flows, U.S. West Coast transportation demand, and transportation stocks. The core conclusion is that short-term freight data remain highly volatile, with China-to-U.S. vessels and TEUs weakening in the latest week; however, import plans at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to decline initially and then rise over the next two weeks, while ground-transportation pricing and intermodal indicators remain firm. The impact of July restocking, an early peak season, and changes in effective tariffs on import decisions warrants continued monitoring.

Core views

The report argues that trade uncertainty remains an important variable for global freight. The policy path following the expiration of the Sec. 122 tariffs remains unclear and could affect medium- to long-term freight planning. At the same time, some countries facing lower effective tariffs may increase exports to the U.S., although this change will take time to appear in the data. For transportation stocks, Goldman Sachs remains constructive on the medium-term cyclical recovery thesis: if volumes bottom, B2B/commercial/manufacturing flows improve, the rate-cutting cycle continues, U.S. manufacturing investment increases, and supply-chain realignment advances, an earnings-upgrade cycle for the transportation industry could gradually take shape in 2026.

Analysis framework

The report combines high-frequency daily and weekly indicators—including vessels, TEUs, ports, ocean freight rates, air cargo, rail intermodal, truck rates, and load availability—with lagging indicators such as monthly port throughput, inventory levels, inventory costs, and the inventory-to-sales ratio to assess tariff-related trade flows and changes in U.S. freight demand. The report emphasizes that weekly data are noisy and should not be extrapolated from a single week; multi-week trends and cross-validation across multiple indicators should be prioritized.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency data trackingUS Tariff Impact Tracker

  Real-time tracking of tariffs' impact on trade and transportation flows

  Observes the impact of tariff uncertainty on supply chains and freight demand through China/Asia-to-U.S. vessels, TEUs, port planned volumes, freight rates, and rail and truck indicators.

• Transportation demand analysisPort Optimizer 6 Week Dashboard

  Planned future import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles

  Uses weekly planned TEU data from Port Optimizer to track recent realized imports and planned import trends over the next two weeks.

• Valuation and equity frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Profiles of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs compares stocks with the market and industry peers across dimensions including growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples; in this report, it is primarily used for disclosure and background rather than as the core analytical framework.

• Trade value estimationTEU implied trade value change

  Estimating changes in import trade value from year-over-year changes in TEUs

  The report uses an estimated value of approximately $52,000 per loaded TEU at the 25 largest U.S. ports in 2022, adjusted for approximately 3% inflation to about $57,000, and multiplies this by the year-over-year change in TEUs to estimate monthly changes in import value.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. transportation stocks

  Industry assets affected by tariffs, import flows, and the inventory-restocking cycle

  Strengths

  If freight volumes bottom and recover in 2026, combined with rate cuts, manufacturing investment, and supply-chain realignment, earnings-recovery potential could increase.

  Weaknesses

  Short-term data are highly volatile, freight planning is affected by policy uncertainty, and the demand inflection point remains unstable.

  Comparison

  Trucking, parcel delivery, and air cargo may benefit from rapid supply-chain adjustments; ocean shipping and freight forwarding may benefit from volatility but face difficult year-over-year comparisons.

  Risks

  Changes in tariff policy, weaker consumption, capacity recovery, and increased effective capacity following the reopening of the Red Sea.

• UPS and FDX

  Buy-rated parcel-delivery companies mentioned in the report

  Strengths

  Time-sensitive logistics, air-cargo capabilities, and global networks help customers adjust their supply chains.

  Weaknesses

  They remain exposed to overall parcel demand, costs, and macroeconomic trade volatility.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure ocean-shipping routes, parcel and air networks offer greater flexibility during supply-chain restructuring.

  Risks

  A weaker-than-expected volume recovery, fuel and air-capacity disruptions, and price competition.

• Freight forwarding and customs brokerage companies, such as EXPD and CHRW

  Potential beneficiaries of trade volatility and increased customs-clearance demand

  Strengths

  Changes in trade policy and supply-chain reconfiguration may increase demand for customs clearance, transshipment, and freight-forwarding services.

  Weaknesses

  High year-over-year ocean freight-rate comparisons may constrain subsequent growth comparisons.

  Comparison

  Compared with asset-heavy transportation companies, freight forwarders benefit more directly from complex trade arrangements and customers switching supply chains.

  Risks

  Falling freight rates, increased effective capacity following the reopening of the Red Sea, and lower-than-expected trade volumes.

• U.S. West Coast ports and inland transportation routes

  Direct observation window for tariff impacts and Asia import flows

  Strengths

  May imports at the Big Three ports increased 30% year over year, while West Coast intermodal volumes and truck rates remained firm.

  Weaknesses

  The latest China-to-U.S. vessel and TEU data weakened sequentially, and planned volumes at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to decline in the following week.

  Comparison

  Port-planning data are timelier than monthly port data but also noisier.

  Risks

  Imports being pulled forward, unsustained restocking, and revisions to planned port volumes.

Key data

• Loaded vessels from China to the U.S.-10% year over year and -11% week over week in the week ended 2026-07-09The prior week was -1% year over year, indicating a clear deceleration in the latest week.
• China-to-U.S. TEUs-9% year over year and -13% week over week in the week ended 2026-07-09The prior week was +2% year over year.
• Planned TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles+4% week over week in the latest week; expected -3% in the following week; expected +5% two weeks laterYear-over-year growth is expected to be approximately +0.5% before turning to -2%.
• Weekly throughput at major Chinese ports-5% week over week and +5% year over year in the week ended 2026-07-05The prior week was +5% week over week and +8% year over year.
• Ocean freight rates from China/East Asia to the U.S. West Coast+13% week over week and +219% year over year in the latest weekThe report notes that geopolitics, an early peak season, and capacity adjustments could cause subsequent volatility.
• U.S. West Coast rail intermodal+13% year over year in the latest weekThe prior week was +10% year over year.
• U.S. West Coast truck spot rates+3% week over week and +53% year over year excluding fuelThe truck load-availability index decreased 26% week over week and increased 44% year over year.
• Supply chain congestion indexHeld at 2; bottleneck index +8% week over weekOverall fluidity remained close to the pre-pandemic baseline.
• Monthly imports at the U.S. West Coast Big Three ports+30% year over year in May; +2.5% sequentially from April to MayThe sequential increase was below historical seasonality of approximately +12%.
• Estimated change in import trade valueApproximately +$4.8 billion year over year in MayThe estimated year-over-year change in April was approximately -$1.2 billion.
• LMI upstream inventory expansion54.2 in May versus 57.9 in AprilThe pace of B2B inventory expansion slowed.
• LMI downstream inventory expansion57.8 in May versus 53.3 in AprilRetail inventory expansion accelerated.
• LMI inventory cost index84.1 in May versus 74.7 in AprilThe pace of inventory-cost expansion accelerated.

Impact & implications

For the macroeconomy and transportation industry, the report shows that tariff policy continues to alter ordering, inventory restocking, and transportation arrangements. In the short term, China-to-U.S. export flows and planned volumes at the Port of Los Angeles may remain highly volatile; an improvement in July imports could indicate that shippers have begun restocking or that the peak season has arrived early. For transportation stocks, volume recovery remains key to an earnings trough and upgrade cycle. Potential beneficiaries include trucking, parcel delivery, air cargo, and freight forwarding and customs brokerage services, although high ocean freight-rate comparables and a potential return of capacity could create pressure.

Risks

• The tariff-policy path is unclear, and the treatment following the expiration of the Sec. 122 tariffs remains uncertain.
• Weekly high-frequency data are volatile and subject to revisions; single-week signals may mislead trend assessments.
• Year-over-year comparisons for Chinese imports may be more difficult because of pull-forward shipments following last year's Liberation Day.
• Geopolitical events, the reopening of the Red Sea, or capacity reallocation could materially change ocean freight rates and effective supply.
• If consumer or manufacturing demand is weaker than expected, the recovery in transportation-industry volumes could be delayed.
• Rising inventory costs could reduce companies' willingness to continue restocking.

What to watch

• Whether China-to-U.S. vessels and TEUs recover from the decline seen in the latest week in July.
• Whether the expected -3% and +5% sequential changes in planned Port of Los Angeles TEUs over the next two weeks materialize.
• Whether exports to the U.S. from countries with lower effective tariffs gradually increase.
• Whether West Coast rail intermodal volumes, truck spot rates, and load availability remain firm.
• Whether ocean freight rates continue to fluctuate at elevated levels amid an early peak season, geopolitics, and capacity adjustments.
• Whether U.S. manufacturing investment, nearshoring/reshoring, and China Plus 1/2 supply-chain strategies translate into domestic freight flows.
• Whether LMI inventory levels, inventory costs, and the inventory-to-sales ratio indicate sustained restocking.