US Import Data Remains Optimistic Through End of May; Freight Volumes Show Double-Digit Growth Amid Tariffs

Overview

This is Goldman Sachs' weekly US Tariff Impact Tracker. The core conclusion is that the US import outlook remains optimistic through the end of May. Data shows accelerating growth in freight volumes from China to the US, strong import expectations at the Port of Los Angeles, and benefits for the transportation sector. The report acknowledges ongoing tariff uncertainty but argues that lower short-term effective tax rates and restocking demand support freight volumes, maintaining a positive view on transportation stocks.

Core views

Strong Freight Volume Data: For the week ended May 21, fully loaded vessels from China to the US were down 3% MoM but up 23% YoY (previous week +11%); TEUs were up 26.5% YoY (previous week +4%). Port of Los Angeles import expectations are up 14% MoM for next week and up 63% YoY for two weeks out, primarily due to a low base effect from Liberation Day. Improvement in Rates and Logistics Metrics: Ocean container rates from China/East Asia to the US West Coast rose 13% MoM and 14% YoY, marking the first positive growth since June last year. West Coast truck spot rates (excluding fuel) are up 30% YoY, and the truck load availability index is up 41% YoY. Investment View on Transportation Stocks: Maintain upgrade on trucking stocks, noting reduced recession probability (Goldman economists lowered recession forecast to 30%). Parcel stocks (UPS, FDX) benefit from expedited logistics and global networks. Freight forwarders (EXPD, CHRW) may benefit from volatility and a surge in customs clearance demand, though YoY comparisons for ocean freight rates remain challenging.

Analysis framework

The report employs a high-frequency data tracking method, monitoring weekly trade volume, demand, and pricing data (such as vessel counts, TEUs, and freight rates) to identify tariff-related trends through YoY and MoM changes. The analytical framework combines macro events (e.g., Supreme Court rulings, new tariff announcements) with logistics data (port throughput, rail intermodal volumes) to distinguish freight rate drivers (capacity constraints vs. import demand). It also references inventory indicators (Logistics Managers' Index) and inventory-to-sales ratios to assess supply chain conditions.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Assess trade flows using freight volume (demand) and capacity (supply) data

  The report tracks demand indicators such as vessel counts and TEUs, while also monitoring geopolitical impacts on capacity, to determine how supply-demand balance affects freight rates.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Separate drivers of freight volume changes from those of freight rate changes

  The report distinguishes whether rate increases are driven by capacity constraints (e.g., Red Sea crisis) or import demand, avoiding confusion between different factors impacting transportation stocks.

• Cycle and Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Identify industry prosperity turning points using high-frequency data

  Utilizes weekly freight data (e.g., YoY TEU growth turning positive) to judge whether the transportation industry has bottomed out and entered a recovery cycle.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• UPS

  Beneficiary; expedited logistics and global network help shippers shift supply chains

  Strengths

  Expedited cycle logistics, air freight capacity, global footprint

  Comparison

  Belongs to the parcel stock beneficiary group along with FDX

• FDX

  Beneficiary; expedited logistics and global network help shippers shift supply chains

  Strengths

  Expedited cycle logistics, air freight capacity, global footprint

  Comparison

  Belongs to the parcel stock beneficiary group along with UPS

• EXPD

  Potential beneficiary; volatility and surge in customs clearance demand

  Weaknesses

  YoY comparison for ocean freight rates remains challenging

  Comparison

  Belongs to the freight forwarder beneficiary group along with CHRW

• CHRW

  Potential beneficiary; volatility and surge in customs clearance demand

  Weaknesses

  YoY comparison for ocean freight rates remains challenging

  Comparison

  Belongs to the freight forwarder beneficiary group along with EXPD

Key data

• China-to-US Fully Loaded Vessels YoY+23%Week of May 15-21; previous week +11%
• China-to-US TEUs YoY+26.5%Week of May 15-21; previous week +4%
• Port of Los Angeles Import Expectations (Next Week)+14% MoMWeek of May 29; YoY expectation +6%
• Port of Los Angeles Import Expectations (Two Weeks Out)+63% YoYWeek of June 5
• Ocean Container Rates YoY+14%China/East Asia to US West Coast; first positive growth since June last year
• Truck Spot Rates YoY (Excluding Fuel)+30%West Coast region
• Estimated April Import Value YoY Change-$1.2bnContinued decline following -$0.5bn in March

Impact & implications

The report argues that strong import data reflects restocking demand and short-term stimulus from lower effective tax rates, which is positive for transportation stocks. The cyclical recovery narrative remains valid, supported by factors including the Fed's rate cut cycle (expected two more cuts in 2026), the low base effect from Liberation Day, and increased US manufacturing investment by corporations (e.g., Apple, Nvidia). However, risks include volatility in the second half of 2025 and potential weakness in consumer demand.

Risks

• Ongoing geopolitical conflicts continue to push up energy costs, affecting global freight demand
• Weak consumer demand could lead to freight volumes falling short of expectations in the second half of 2025
• Reopening of the Red Sea could increase effective capacity, suppressing ocean freight rates
• Uncertainty in tariff policy affects medium-to-long-term freight planning

What to watch

• Changes in import levels in May-June to observe shippers' restocking decisions
• Impact of the Fed's rate cut pace on transportation stocks
• Changes in inventory-to-sales ratios to assess supply chain inventory pressure
• Subsequent impact of geopolitical events on air and ocean freight rates