Port of Los Angeles imports are expected to decline before Labor Day and rebound two weeks later, while the medium- to long-term transportation cycle recovery thesis remains intact

Overview

This report uses high-frequency and monthly data to track the effects of tariffs and trade uncertainty on freight flows from China and Asia to the United States, as well as on ports, ocean shipping, air freight, rail, and trucking. Its central view is that Port of Los Angeles import volumes will decline before rebounding in the near term, and that the short-term front-loading effect may continue to fade, but Goldman Sachs remains positive on a medium- to long-term transportation cycle recovery in 2026.

Core views

The latest weekly data present a pattern of “overall improvement in freight flows, a near-term decline followed by a rebound at the Port of Los Angeles, and continued divergence in inland transportation.” From August 21 to 27, the number of laden container vessels sailing from China to the United States increased 3% sequentially and 10% year over year, with year-over-year growth above the prior week’s 5%; China-to-US TEUs increased 8% year over year from August 21 to 28, versus a 1% decline in the prior week, and rose 7% sequentially. The report believes these data demonstrate continued resilience in trans-Pacific freight flows, but do not imply that the trade environment has stabilized, as uncertainty surrounding tariff policy and geopolitics remains significant. The tracker examines vessel, TEU, port, freight-rate, rail, trucking, air-freight, and inventory data together to assess how tariffs affect global supply chains and US freight transportation. Vessel and TEU data use a rolling 15-day window; laden vessels must report a draft exceeding 75% of maximum draft when departing for the United States. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that weekly data are affected by sailing schedules and measurement timing, contain considerable noise, and may be revised. Conclusions therefore should not be based on a single week’s changes; instead, multiweek trends should be used to assess the actual effects of restocking, peak season, and trade policy. Regarding the transportation-stock cycle, the report notes that tariff uncertainty previously prompted shippers to front-load freight while making it difficult for companies to determine production and inventory order volumes. This is viewed as an important reason for the transportation sector’s weak performance through most of 2025 and could also cause peak-season freight demand during the fourth-quarter reporting period to fall below normal seasonality. Although the cycle bottom had previously remained elusive, Goldman Sachs remains positive on a medium- to long-term recovery, believing that an earnings trough and subsequent earnings-upgrade cycle will ultimately depend on freight-volume growth, particularly in higher-margin B2B, commercial, and manufacturing freight. The report lists several factors that could drive a 2026 freight-volume inflection: Goldman Sachs economists expect one rate cut in December 2026 and another in March 2027, following three cuts in 2025, and rate-cutting cycles are generally favorable for transportation stocks; the market has passed the year-over-year anniversary of April 2, 2026, “Liberation Day,” potentially giving shippers a more stable basis for planning; companies such as Apple, Nvidia, IBM, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson have announced increased investment in US manufacturing, which could generate additional domestic freight flows; the tax code’s restoration of bonus depreciation could stimulate corporate capital investment; tariff-driven reshoring or nearshoring of manufacturing could also increase US domestic transportation demand; and companies adopting “China+1 or 2” sourcing strategies could create long-term opportunities from the restructuring of global trade and logistics. More granular high-frequency data support improving freight flows, although regional performance remains uneven. The average number of laden vessels from mainland China increased 7.5% year over year, while those from Asia excluding mainland China increased 9%; measured by TEUs, mainland China increased an average of 7% year over year and Asia excluding mainland China increased 12%. The Asian export proxy used here includes mainland China, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Japan. Through the week ended August 23, throughput at major Chinese ports increased 13% sequentially, versus a 1% decline in the prior week; it rose 3% year over year, versus an 8% decline in the prior week, indicating some recovery in upstream port activity. The Port of Los Angeles’ two-week forward data are the most prominent near-term signal in this edition. Planned TEUs totaled 134,002 in the week ended August 28, up 11.2% sequentially and down 1.5% year over year; they are expected to fall to 113,366 in the week of September 4, down 15.4% sequentially and 5.6% year over year; and then rebound to 145,227 in the week of September 11, up 28.1% sequentially and 54.2% year over year. Accordingly, the report views the decline around Labor Day as a change in short-term timing rather than direct evidence of sustained demand deterioration. Actual August and September freight volumes will help determine whether shippers have begun restocking, whether the traditional peak season has started, and whether peak-season front-loading already occurred in the spring. Downstream transportation indicators continue to show structural divergence. Ocean container rates from China and East Asia to the North American West Coast increased 2% sequentially and were 4.4 times the prior-year level; Goldman Sachs expects geopolitical events, surcharges, shifts in global capacity, and this year’s earlier peak season to continue driving volatility. Asia-Pacific-to-North America air-freight weight and rates declined 4% and 1%, respectively, based on the latest two weeks versus the preceding two weeks, while reduced air capacity in Gulf countries and higher jet-fuel prices could still affect global and regional rates. US West Coast rail intermodal volume increased 8% year over year, versus 4% in the prior week. In trucking, West Coast spot rates excluding fuel declined 3% sequentially and increased 13% year over year, while the load availability index increased 6% sequentially and declined 21% year over year. This is consistent with a marked overall weakening in trucking activity during July and August and may indicate that the May and June front-loading effect is fading. However, if year-over-year import growth at the Port of Los Angeles and positive rail intermodal growth persist, together with a recovery in order activity, the report believes trucking rates and load availability could improve again before year-end. The supply-chain congestion tracker remained at 2, and the bottleneck index increased 5% sequentially, but overall fluidity remained near pre-pandemic levels. Monthly data provide a more cautious backdrop for near-term strength. Combined July freight volume at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland declined 5.2% year over year and increased 5.1% from June, with the latter close to the five-year average sequential increase of 6.2%. Long Beach declined 0.1% year over year and increased 20.8% sequentially, Los Angeles declined 8.1% year over year and 5.8% sequentially, and Oakland declined 14.0% year over year and increased 1.7% sequentially. Shanghai-to-Los Angeles air-freight rates declined 21% sequentially in July after increasing 15% in June; the report believes geopolitics, the utilization of air capacity, and fuel prices could cause rates to change again in August, but the outcome remains unconfirmed. The report also converts changes in TEUs into trade value to measure the economic scale of freight-volume fluctuations. Its baseline uses US Bureau of Transportation Statistics data: approximately $2.3 trillion of ocean trade in 2022 and 44 million laden TEUs handled by the 25 largest US ports, resulting in approximately $52,000 per TEU. After adjusting for roughly 3% inflation over the past three years, the estimated value is approximately $57,000 per TEU. By multiplying year-over-year TEU changes by this unit value, Goldman Sachs estimates that July imports may have declined by approximately $1.82 billion year over year, compared with an estimated increase of approximately $1.55 billion in June. Inventory data do not yet indicate broad-based restocking. The upstream B2B inventory index was 59 in July, slightly below June’s 59.1 but still in expansion territory; the downstream retail inventory index fell from 66 in June to 46.3, moving into contraction; and the inventory cost index rose from 75.9 to 77, indicating faster cost expansion. In June, inventory-to-sales ratios for retailers, manufacturers, and wholesalers were 1.08, 1.48, and 1.19, respectively, compared with 1.08, 1.47, and 1.15 in May. Based on this, the report believes current inventory-to-sales ratios have not shown the pronounced increase seen during the previous Trump administration, and whether shippers genuinely resume restocking remains a key validation point for the subsequent freight cycle. At the individual-stock and subsector level, Goldman Sachs states that it upgraded its view on trucking stocks during the prior year because recession risk had declined and consumers remained relatively resilient. Freight forwarders such as EXPD and CHRW could benefit from trade volatility and surging customs-brokerage demand, but year-over-year comparisons for ocean freight rates will become more challenging, and reopening of the Red Sea would increase effective capacity. UPS and FDX are both rated Buy, and the report believes their expedited logistics, air-freight capabilities, and global networks can help shippers adjust their supply chains. Overall, short-term data will remain volatile, but the report’s medium- to long-term thesis is that stabilizing freight volumes, renewed restocking, domestic manufacturing investment, and supply-chain restructuring will jointly drive a transportation cycle recovery.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs first uses daily and weekly vessel data, rolling 15-day TEU data, and forward-looking port data to identify changes in trade flows, and then examines ocean and air-freight rates, rail intermodal, truck load availability, and spot rates to determine how freight flows propagate through the transportation chain. The report subsequently tests high-frequency signals against monthly West Coast port volumes, inventory levels, inventory costs, and inventory-to-sales ratios, and estimates changes in import value by multiplying TEUs by an estimated per-container unit value. Finally, it links freight volumes, capacity, pricing, restocking, and policy catalysts to the cycle and earnings outlook of transportation companies, while explicitly requiring judgments to be based on multiweek trends rather than single-week fluctuations.

Methodology notes

• Cycle and Business Conditions FrameworkBusiness-Cycle Inflection Analysis

  Assessing multiweek trends in high-frequency freight data

  The report uses weekly vessel, TEU, port, rail, and trucking data to identify signals that freight volumes are bottoming or strengthening, but emphasizes that single-week data are noisy and trends should be confirmed over a multiweek window.

• Industry/Value-Chain Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Value-Chain Transmission

  Transmission from Asian exports and port imports to rail, trucking, air freight, and inventories

  The report first examines export freight flows from China and Asia and then tracks changes in US ports, rail intermodal, trucking, and inventories to determine how tariffs and restocking decisions propagate through the supply chain.

• Industry/Value-Chain Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Interaction among freight volumes, effective capacity, and transportation rates

  The report jointly analyzes import demand, changes in global ocean and air capacity, the potential increase in capacity from a reopening of the Red Sea, and fuel costs alongside ocean, air, and trucking rates.

• Industry/Value-Chain Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Separately tracking transportation volumes and prices

  Vessels, TEUs, railcar volumes, and truck load availability reflect transportation volume, while ocean, air, and truck spot rates reflect pricing; divergence between the two is used to assess demand strength and capacity constraints.

• (Method Outside the Vocabulary)

  Estimating changes in import trade value using per-TEU value

  The report divides approximately $2.3 trillion of ocean trade in 2022 by 44 million laden TEUs to derive approximately $52,000 per TEU, adjusts this to approximately $57,000 based on roughly 3% inflation over three years, and multiplies it by year-over-year TEU changes to estimate monthly changes in import value.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US trucking stocks

  The report maintains a positive view on a transportation cycle recovery and believes stabilizing freight volumes in 2026 could drive an earnings trough and subsequent upgrade cycle.

  Strengths

  Recession risk has declined, consumers remain relatively resilient, and manufacturing investment, reshoring, and higher-margin freight could increase domestic transportation demand.

  Weaknesses

  The West Coast truck load availability index remains down 21% year over year, and weaker activity in July and August may indicate that the May and June front-loading effect is fading.

  Comparison

  In the latest week, load availability increased 6% sequentially, while spot rates excluding fuel increased 13% year over year but declined 3% sequentially.

  Risks

  Tariff uncertainty, delayed orders by shippers, and peak-season demand below normal seasonality.

• EXPD

  The report believes trade-flow volatility and surging customs-brokerage demand could benefit this freight forwarder.

  Strengths

  It can capture supply-chain adjustment and customs-brokerage demand.

  Weaknesses

  Ocean freight rates face more challenging year-over-year comparisons.

  Comparison

  Together with CHRW, it is identified as a freight forwarder that could benefit from volatility and customs-brokerage demand.

  Risks

  A reopening of the Red Sea could increase effective capacity and affect the freight-rate environment.

• CHRW

  The report believes trade-flow volatility and surging customs-brokerage demand could benefit this freight forwarder.

  Strengths

  It can capture supply-chain adjustment and customs-brokerage demand.

  Weaknesses

  Ocean freight rates face more challenging year-over-year comparisons.

  Comparison

  Together with EXPD, it is identified as a freight forwarder that could benefit from volatility and customs-brokerage demand.

  Risks

  A reopening of the Red Sea could increase effective capacity and affect the freight-rate environment.

• FedEx Corp. (FDX)

  The report identifies FDX as a potential beneficiary of supply-chain adjustments, notes that it is rated Buy, and discloses a price of $331.41.

  Strengths

  Expedited logistics, air-freight capabilities, and a large global network can help shippers adjust their supply chains.

  Comparison

  Both FDX and UPS are rated Buy and are jointly identified as potential beneficiaries in parcel delivery.

• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

  The report identifies UPS as a potential beneficiary of supply-chain adjustments, notes that it is rated Buy, and discloses a price of $105.68.

  Strengths

  Expedited logistics, air-freight capabilities, and a large global network can help shippers adjust their supply chains.

  Comparison

  Both UPS and FDX are rated Buy and are jointly identified as potential beneficiaries in parcel delivery.

Key data

• Laden container vessels from China to the United StatesSequentially +3%, year over year +10%August 21 to 27; the prior week was +5% year over year and +1% sequentially.
• China-to-US TEUsSequentially +7%, year over year +8%August 21 to 28; the prior week was -1% year over year.
• Vessel growth in mainland China and Asia excluding mainland ChinaYear over year +7.5% / +9%Asia excluding mainland China includes Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and Japan.
• TEU growth in mainland China and Asia excluding mainland ChinaYear over year +7% / +12%Calculated using the report’s Asian export proxy.
• Throughput at major Chinese portsSequentially +13%, year over year +3%Week ended August 23; the prior week was -1% and -8%, respectively.
• Planned TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles134,002Week of August 28: +11.2% sequentially and -1.5% year over year.
• Planned TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles for the week of September 4113,366Expected to be -15.4% sequentially and -5.6% year over year.
• Planned TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles for the week of September 11145,227Expected to be +28.1% sequentially and +54.2% year over year.
• Ocean freight rates from China and East Asia to the North American West CoastSequentially +2%, 4.4 times year-over-yearWeek ended August 28.
• Asia-Pacific-to-North America air freightWeight -4%, rates -1%As of August 20, change in the latest two weeks relative to the preceding two weeks.
• US West Coast rail intermodal volumeYear over year +8%The prior week was +4% year over year.
• West Coast truck spot ratesSequentially -3%, year over year +13%Excluding fuel, for the week ended August 24.
• West Coast truck load availability indexSequentially +6%, year over year -21%Indicates a short-term sequential recovery but remains significantly below the prior-year level.
• Supply-chain congestion tracker2The index was unchanged, the bottleneck index increased 5% sequentially, and overall fluidity was near pre-pandemic levels.
• Combined July freight volume at the three major West Coast portsYear over year -5.2%, sequentially +5.1%The five-year average sequential increase was 6.2%.
• Shanghai-to-Los Angeles air-freight ratesJuly sequentially -21%They increased 15% sequentially in June.
• Estimated year-over-year change in import trade valueApproximately -$1.82bn in JulyJune was estimated at approximately +$1.55bn.
• Logistics Managers Index inventory levelsUpstream 59, downstream 46.3June readings were 59.1 and 66, respectively; upstream remained in expansion while downstream moved into contraction.
• Inventory cost index77It was 75.9 in June, indicating faster expansion in inventory costs.
• Inventory-to-sales ratios1.08 / 1.48 / 1.19June data for retailers, manufacturers, and wholesalers; May readings were 1.08, 1.47, and 1.15, respectively.

Impact & implications

The report believes the forward data showing a rapid rebound following a near-term decline in Port of Los Angeles imports are more likely to reflect sailing schedules, Labor Day, and timing changes caused by earlier front-loading, rather than independently proving sustained demand deterioration. If year-over-year import growth, positive rail intermodal growth, and order recovery persist, West Coast truck load availability and rates could stabilize and recover before year-end. A genuine medium- to long-term transportation cycle recovery will still depend on improving freight volumes and higher-margin B2B, commercial, and manufacturing freight; potential supporting factors include rate cuts, US manufacturing investment, bonus depreciation, reshoring and nearshoring of manufacturing, and “China+1 or 2” supply-chain adjustments. Freight forwarders could benefit from customs-brokerage demand and trade volatility, while UPS and FDX could use their air-freight capabilities, expedited logistics, and global networks to help shippers restructure their supply chains.

Risks

• Weekly vessel, TEU, and freight-rate data are affected by measurement timing, contain substantial volatility and noise, and may be revised.
• Tariff policy and geopolitics remain highly uncertain and could continue disrupting shippers’ production, ordering, inventory, and transportation arrangements.
• The May and June front-loading effect may be fading, and fourth-quarter peak-season freight demand could fall below normal seasonality.
• Shifts in global capacity, potential surcharges, and an early start to peak season could keep ocean freight rates highly volatile.
• A reopening of the Red Sea could increase effective ocean-shipping capacity, while year-over-year comparisons for ocean freight rates will become more challenging.
• Reduced air capacity in Gulf countries, higher jet-fuel prices, and limited visibility into weekly rates could continue causing volatility in air-freight pricing assessments.

What to watch

• Track August and September import volumes to determine whether shippers have begun restocking, whether peak season has started, and whether front-loading already occurred in the spring.
• Check whether actual Port of Los Angeles TEUs in the weeks of September 4 and September 11 match the planned 15.4% decline followed by a 28.1% rebound.
• Monitor whether West Coast truck load availability, spot rates, and order activity can continue improving before year-end.
• Continue tracking Asia-Pacific-to-North America air-freight weight and rates, as well as the effects of Gulf-region air capacity and fuel prices.
• Monitor whether freight volumes reach a favorable inflection in 2026, particularly whether B2B, commercial, and manufacturing freight can accelerate.
• Track inventory levels, inventory costs, and inventory-to-sales ratios to confirm whether the retail segment shifts from contraction to genuine restocking.