LA imports are set to rebound next week before weakening two weeks out, while Goldman Sachs remains positive on a 2026 transport-cycle recovery

Overview

Goldman Sachs' weekly tariff-impact tracker assesses how trade-policy uncertainty is shaping China-to-US freight flows, port activity, logistics pricing and transport demand. The report sees a volatile near-term import path but maintains a constructive medium- to longer-term view of a volume-led recovery in US transportation.

Core views

The latest high-frequency data show improving China-to-US shipping activity. Laden vessels rose 1% week-on-week and 23% year-on-year for August 28 to September 3, accelerating from 12% year-on-year in the preceding week. China-to-US TEUs increased 4% sequentially and 21% year-on-year, compared with 11% year-on-year previously. Mainland China led the acceleration: laden vessels were up 24.5% year-on-year and TEUs up 22%, while Asia excluding Mainland China recorded vessel growth of 10% but a 2% year-on-year decline in TEUs. Chinese major-port throughput, however, fell 10% week-on-week and 4% year-on-year in the latest available week, illustrating the volatility of the underlying trade data. Port Optimizer data indicate an uneven near-term path for Los Angeles imports. Planned TEUs fell 17% sequentially in the latest week after increases of 3% and 11% in the prior two weeks. Goldman Sachs expects a 35% week-on-week rebound for September 11, followed by a 16% decline two weeks out. The year-on-year comparison is projected to turn sharply positive at 60% next week and remain positive at 3% two weeks later. The report says September import patterns should help show whether shippers are restocking, whether peak shipping began early in the spring, and how lower effective tariff rates may be affecting import decisions amid geopolitical uncertainty. Freight indicators give a mixed but not uniformly weak picture. West Coast rail intermodal traffic grew 7% year-on-year, slightly below the prior week's 8%. West Coast truck-load availability increased 16% sequentially but was down 13% year-on-year; ex-fuel truckload spot rates were up 17% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs notes that trucking activity declined materially in July and August, potentially indicating that pull-forward activity in May and June is tapering. Still, positive year-on-year LA import indications and positive intermodal volumes could allow West Coast trucking to stabilize, with rates and loads potentially improving through year-end if orders pick up. Ocean freight conditions remain elevated but choppy. China/East Asia-to-US West Coast container rates declined 1% week-on-week after a 2% increase in the previous week, yet were 3.5 times higher year-on-year. Goldman Sachs expects continued volatility as geopolitical events may shift global capacity, potentially trigger surcharges and coincide with an earlier peak season. Air-cargo data were also soft: Asia Pacific-to-North America weight was down 4% on a two-week-over-two-week basis and rates were unchanged. Separately, Shanghai-to-Los Angeles air rates rose 9.5% month-on-month in August after falling 21% in July; the report says constrained Gulf-region air capacity and higher jet fuel prices could lift rates further, depending on geopolitical developments. Monthly data provide a broader view of freight and inventory conditions. July volumes at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland were down 5% year-on-year but rose 5% sequentially, close to the historical July seasonal average of 6%. Goldman Sachs observes a strong relationship between Big Three port-volume growth and China/Asia-to-US TEU growth. It estimates imported goods were broadly unchanged year-on-year in August after an estimated approximately $1.82 billion year-on-year decline in July, following an average approximately $3.16 billion year-on-year increase in May and June. The estimate applies an implied value per TEU of about $57,000, derived from 2022 trade and container data adjusted by roughly 3% annual inflation over three years. Inventory signals were divergent in August. The Logistics Managers Index showed upstream B2B inventories contracting at 49, down from 59 in July, while downstream retail inventories expanded at 61.9 after 46.3. The inventory-cost index rose to 78.6 from 77, indicating faster cost expansion. Goldman Sachs also notes that June inventory-to-sales ratios for retailers, manufacturers and wholesalers were 1.08, 1.48 and 1.19, respectively, and have not shown the rise seen in the earlier tariff period. Looking beyond weekly volatility, Goldman Sachs remains positive on the transport-cycle recovery despite an elusive earnings bottom. It argues that volume growth, particularly higher-margin business-to-business, commercial and manufacturing freight, is necessary for a profit and earnings-upgrade cycle. Potential supports include anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, a more consistent planning environment after the April 2, 2026 tariff milestone, increased US manufacturing investment, revived bonus depreciation, reshoring or nearshoring, and China Plus 1 or 2 supply-chain strategies. The report says tariff uncertainty and prior pull-forward demand have contributed to broad transport underperformance and could create a subseasonal fourth-quarter peak, but it sees several catalysts for a more favorable volume inflection into 2026.

Analysis framework

The tracker combines weekly and daily freight-flow, port, pricing, trucking, rail and air-cargo indicators with monthly port and inventory data to assess tariff-related changes in trade and domestic logistics. Goldman Sachs emphasizes collective and multi-week interpretation because individual weekly readings can be noisy and subject to revision, then links volume trends to potential transport-sector earnings recovery.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  High-frequency tracking of shipping volumes, freight capacity, load availability and freight rates.

  The report uses changes in freight demand and available capacity to interpret movements in ocean, trucking, rail and air-logistics pricing.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Linking imports and inventory behavior to port, intermodal, trucking and parcel freight activity.

  Goldman Sachs follows how tariff-related shipper ordering and inventory choices can flow through ports and transport modes into sector volumes and earnings conditions.

• Other

  Implied import-value calculation based on year-on-year TEU changes and estimated value per container.

  The report estimates the trade-value change by multiplying the change in loaded TEUs by an approximately $57,000 implied value per TEU, derived from 2022 data and inflation-adjusted.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. (CHRW)

  Freight forwarder that could benefit from volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential exposure to higher customs-brokerage demand.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside Expeditors as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons may be challenging.

• Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)

  Freight forwarder that could benefit from volatility and increased customs-brokerage demand.

  Strengths

  Potential exposure to higher customs-brokerage demand.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside C.H. Robinson as a freight-forwarding beneficiary.

  Risks

  Year-on-year ocean-rate comparisons may be challenging.

• United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS)

  Parcel operator identified as a potential beneficiary of fast-cycle logistics and a global footprint that can help shippers shift supply chains.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics and broad global footprint.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside FedEx as a Buy-rated parcel beneficiary.

• FedEx Corp. (FDX)

  Parcel operator identified as a potential beneficiary of fast-cycle logistics and a global footprint that can help shippers shift supply chains.

  Strengths

  Fast-cycle logistics and broad global footprint.

  Comparison

  Discussed alongside UPS as a Buy-rated parcel beneficiary.

Key data

• China-to-US laden vessels+1% WoW; +23% YoYWeek ending September 3; year-on-year growth accelerated from +12% in the prior week.
• China-to-US TEUs+4% sequentially; +21% YoYFor August 28 to September 3; prior-week year-on-year growth was +11%.
• Planned Port of Los Angeles TEUs-17% WoW, then +35% next week and -16% two weeks outYear-on-year growth is projected at +60% next week and +3% two weeks out.
• West Coast intermodal volumes+7% YoYCompared with +8% year-on-year in the previous week.
• Ocean container rates to the US West Coast-1% WoW; 3.5x YoYChina/East Asia-to-US West Coast route.
• West Coast truck-load availability+16% WoW; -13% YoYEx-fuel truckload spot rates were +17% year-on-year.
• Big Three West Coast port volumes-5% YoY; +5% sequentiallyJuly volumes for Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland; the sequential increase was near the historical +6% seasonal average.
• LMI inventoriesUpstream 49; downstream 61.9August readings versus 59 and 46.3, respectively, in July.

Impact & implications

The report interprets the data as evidence of volatile tariff-related trade flows rather than a clear, uninterrupted demand recovery. Positive import and intermodal readings could support stabilization in West Coast trucking if orders improve, while the longer-term transport case depends on a sustained recovery in higher-margin commercial and manufacturing volumes.

Risks

• Trade-policy and geopolitical uncertainty may continue to disrupt shipper ordering, inventory decisions and freight flows.
• Global capacity shifts, potential surcharges and a possible Red Sea reopening could make ocean-rate comparisons difficult.
• Weekly freight data are volatile, noisy and subject to revision, so the report cautions against drawing conclusions from a single week.

What to watch

• September LA import patterns for evidence of restocking, peak-season timing and the effect of lower effective tariff rates.
• Whether West Coast trucking loads and rates stabilize or improve as import and order activity develops.
• Ocean and air-freight capacity and pricing effects from geopolitical developments and jet-fuel costs.
• Whether higher-margin commercial and manufacturing freight volumes produce the anticipated 2026 inflection.