U.S. supply chain congestion Report Interpretation

Overview

This weekly tracker assesses the fluidity of the US transport-logistics network. Goldman Sachs reports a stable, low-congestion reading of 2, close to pre-Covid conditions, although several monthly indicators point to somewhat tighter underlying capacity and slower delivery conditions.

Core views

Goldman Sachs’ weekly bottleneck scale stayed at 2 in the week of August 10, while its high-frequency congestion index fell 0.7% week on week. The institution characterizes overall bottlenecks as far below the prior peak, when the scale reached 10, and broadly in line with pre-Covid fluidity. Its July average weekly score was also 2, and the combined weekly-and-monthly scale averaged 110 in June, which corresponds to a bottleneck score of 2 but is close to 1 when all indicators are considered. Port congestion remained contained. The number of container ships waiting on the West Coast was unchanged at 1, while the East Coast backlog remained 5. June inbound loaded containers at the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland increased 12% year on year, indicating higher throughput without a corresponding return to severe port backlogs. At San Pedro Bay, container weighted-average dwell rose to about 2.9 days in June from about 2.6 days in May, while rail-container dwell rose to 5.4 days from 5.2 days; however, rail dwell remained far below the roughly 16-day peak reached in 2022. Rail data were mixed but generally showed continuing freight movement. Average West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal traffic growth accelerated to 6% year on year from 5% the prior week. BNSF growth improved to 5.7% year on year from 1.2%, while Union Pacific growth slowed to 5.5% from 8.2%. Terminal dwell edged higher for both carriers: Union Pacific to 19.9 hours from 19.8 hours and BNSF to 22.7 hours from 22.3 hours. Intermodal speed data improved: BNSF was down 1.3% year on year versus down 6.0% previously, and Union Pacific was up 2.3% versus 1.0%. Chassis indicators improved in the latest available week, though Goldman Sachs held assumed dwell times unchanged for the following weeks while awaiting data from Pool of Pools. Street dwell for 20-foot chassis fell to 4.3 days from 5.1 days, and 40/45-foot chassis dwell fell to 5.9 days from 6.5 days. Terminal dwell for 20-foot and 40/45-foot chassis fell to 10.3 and 4.7 days, respectively, from 11.1 and 5.3 days. The report notes chassis dwell is substantially below peak-congestion levels. Ocean freight pricing remained elevated on a year-on-year basis despite a modest weekly retreat. China/East Asia-to-US West Coast container rates were about $6.13k per FEU in the prior week, down about 1% from about $6.21k, but up 162% year on year. Separately, China-to-US door-to-door transit time was 47 days in October, largely unchanged from 46 days in September and much closer to pre-pandemic norms than the 80-plus-day congestion peak; the report assumed unchanged transit times from November through April because of limited provider updates. Lagged monthly data for June were weaker than May in several measures. LMI transportation capacity fell to 30.8 from 31.7, implying faster contraction; warehouse capacity fell to 47.5, indicating less available capacity; and warehouse utilization rose to 69.4 from 62.9, indicating faster expansion in utilization. The manufacturing supplier-delivery-time index was 42.6, where a reading below 50 indicates longer delivery times, and was up 14.5% year on year. Truck transportation employment was 4.4% below pre-Covid highs in June, with average year-on-year growth of negative 1.5% over the prior six months. Goldman Sachs constructs its scale by aggregating weekly and monthly logistics indicators relative to a February 3, 2020 pre-pandemic benchmark. It gives greater weight to metrics it considers closest to bottlenecks, including ships anchored near Los Angeles and Long Beach, container and chassis dwell, and China-to-US door-to-door transit time. The weekly index is intended as a leading indicator for the roughly one-month-lagged composite; Goldman Sachs says their similar R-squared values support its predictive value. The central forward question is how tariffs and geopolitical conflicts affect freight demand, freight-flow timing and normalization of global trade. If pressures continue to ease, the institution considers it conceivable that the index could remain more consistently in 1 territory during 2026.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines high-frequency weekly metrics with lagged monthly data to measure logistics fluidity against a pre-pandemic baseline. It monitors ship queues, rail volumes, speeds and dwell, chassis and container dwell, ocean rates, port throughput, transit time, trucking employment, logistics-capacity indices and supplier delivery times; the weekly composite provides a leading signal before the broader monthly composite confirms the direction.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Supply-chain congestion composite based on transport capacity, freight movement, dwell times and delivery conditions.

  The report treats port queues, rail throughput, available transport and warehouse capacity, and delivery times as linked measures of whether logistics supply can accommodate freight demand.

• Other

  GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale.

  Goldman Sachs aggregates changes in weekly and monthly indicators versus a February 3, 2020 baseline, overweighting selected bottleneck-sensitive metrics, to place conditions on a 1-to-10 fluidity scale.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Union Pacific (UNP)

  West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal indicator within the congestion tracker.

  Strengths

  Intermodal traffic grew 5.5% year on year and intermodal train speed increased 2.3% year on year.

  Weaknesses

  Traffic growth slowed from 8.2% year on year in the prior week; terminal dwell increased to 19.9 hours.

  Comparison

  BNSF traffic growth improved more sharply to 5.7% year on year, while Union Pacific's growth decelerated.

• BNSF

  West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal indicator within the congestion tracker.

  Strengths

  Intermodal traffic growth improved to 5.7% year on year from 1.2%; speed contraction narrowed to 1.3% from 6.0%.

  Weaknesses

  Terminal dwell increased to 22.7 hours from 22.3 hours; speed remained down year on year.

  Comparison

  BNSF outpaced Union Pacific's 5.5% year-on-year intermodal traffic growth in the latest week.

Key data

• Weekly congestion index-0.7% w/wThe index declined in the most recent week; the bottleneck scale remained 2.
• West Coast/East Coast ship backlogs1 / 5 shipsBoth were unchanged in the most recent week.
• West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal growth+6% YoYUp from +5% YoY in the prior week.
• Ocean container shipping rate~$6.13k per FEUDown ~1% week on week but up +162% year on year for China/East Asia to the US West Coast.
• June combined congestion scale110Equivalent to a bottleneck score of 2 and close to 1 based on combined weekly and monthly indicators.
• June warehouse utilization index69.4Up from 62.9 in May, indicating faster utilization expansion.

Impact & implications

The report views supply-chain conditions as broadly normal relative to pandemic-era disruption, which is relevant to retailers, consumer-goods companies and inflationary pricing. Nonetheless, tighter transport and warehouse capacity measures, slower supplier deliveries and elevated ocean rates show that selected pressure points remain.

Risks

• Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts could alter freight demand, the timing of freight flows and the ability of global trade to normalize.
• Several index inputs were assumed unchanged because of delayed updates from data providers, including chassis dwell and certain transit-time data.

What to watch

• Whether supply-chain pressures continue to ease enough for the scale to move more consistently into 1 territory during 2026.
• Changes in tariffs and geopolitical conflicts that could affect freight flows and trade normalization.
• Confirmation from lagged monthly data of the direction signaled by the weekly composite.