Goldman Sachs Supply Chain Congestion Index Falls Week-on-Week; Liquidity Has Returned to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Overview

This report is a high-frequency data tracking study by Goldman Sachs on U.S. supply chain congestion. The core conclusion is that as of June 15, 2026, the U.S. supply chain bottleneck rating remained at '2,' and the comprehensive congestion index fell by 4% week-on-week. Overall, current supply chain bottleneck levels are significantly lower than the peaks seen from late 2021 to early 2022, and have largely returned to pre-COVID normal liquidity levels.

Core views

Congestion at ports and in ocean shipping continues to ease. The number of container ships waiting to dock at West Coast (Los Angeles/Long Beach) remained at 1 vessel, and at East Coast at 5 vessels, showing no worsening. Meanwhile, ocean freight rates for containers from East Asia to West Coast fell to around $4,840 per FEU, down 12% year-on-year, reversing the previous upward trend and reflecting further easing of supply-demand balance in ocean shipping capacity. Inland rail and trucking performance shows divergence but remains generally smooth. Multimodal freight volumes on the West Coast's Class I railroads (Union Pacific UNP and Burlington Northern Santa Fe BNSF) accelerated to a year-on-year growth rate of 16%, indicating strong inland port-clearance capabilities. Although train speeds slowed slightly year-on-year, terminal dwell times were shortened across the board. In addition, dwell times for 20-foot and 40/45-foot container chassis at terminals improved, and street dwell times remained stable, well below historical congestion peaks. Monthly lagging indicators confirm the normalization of the supply chain. April data showed that the weighted average dwell time for containers in San Pedro Bay remained at 2.6 days, and door-to-door transit times from China to the U.S. stabilized at 47 days, close to pre-pandemic averages. However, the Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) shows continued contraction in transportation and warehousing capacity, rising warehouse utilization, and the PMI Supplier Delivery Time Index indicates longer delivery cycles. This suggests that despite overall smoothness, structural imbalances still persist in certain segments.

Analysis framework

The institution quantifies the fluidity of the logistics network by constructing the 'Goldman Sachs Supply Chain Congestion Index.' The index uses February 2020 (pre-pandemic) as the baseline, setting 'fully open' at 1 and 'fully congested' at 10. In its analytical approach, the institution assigns higher weights to core indicators directly reflecting bottlenecks, such as the number of ships anchored at ports, chassis dwell times, and door-to-door transit days, and cross-validates them with weekly high-frequency data and monthly lagging data. By tracking marginal changes in the weekly index, the institution can proactively forecast the direction of the monthly composite index. This 'high-frequency leading, low-frequency confirming' analytical framework enables investors to capture turning points in supply chain pressures earlier, providing leading signals for assessing macro inflationary pressures and retailer inventory cycles.

Methodology notes

• Industry/sector analysis framework

  Composite index construction and high-frequency leading indicator forecasting

  The institution standardizes logistics data from multiple dimensions—including ports, railways, and ocean shipping—and constructs a comprehensive congestion index based on pre-pandemic norms. Weekly high-frequency data serve as leading indicators to forecast the direction of the monthly composite index, which incorporates more dimensions. This method is commonly used to track marginal turning points in macroeconomic or industry cyclical trends.

Key data

• Supply Chain Bottleneck Rating2Steady week-on-week, far below the pandemic peak of 10
• Comprehensive Congestion Index-4%Down week-on-week, absolute congestion levels moderately eased
• Anchored Vessels at West/East Coasts1 vessel / 5 vesselsSteady week-on-week, port queue conditions remain stable
• West Coast Rail Multimodal Volume+16%Year-on-year growth accelerated further from last week's +10%
• East Asia to West Coast Ocean Freight Ratesabout $4,840 per FEUDown 12% year-on-year, reversing previous upward trend
• Door-to-Door Transit Time from China to U.S.47 daysClose to pre-pandemic averages, well below the peak of over 80 days

Impact & implications

The report believes that the recovery of supply chain liquidity has a direct impact on retailers, consumer goods companies, and inflation pricing. The ongoing decline in the congestion index means that input-driven inflation pressure caused by supply chain bottlenecks has significantly subsided. If supply chain pressures continue to ease in the future, the index could stabilize more firmly in the '1' range, representing 'fully open,' by 2026, providing a favorable macro environment for businesses to reduce logistics costs and optimize inventory management.

Risks

• Tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts could introduce unknown shocks to freight demand and the temporal distribution of global trade flows

What to watch

• Whether the weekly congestion index can continue to move toward the fully open '1' range
• The actual impact of tariff policies on global supply chains and freight flows