Goldman Sachs U.S. supply chain congestion scale remains at 2, weekly index edges lower

Overview

This is Goldman Sachs' weekly tracking report on U.S. supply chain congestion. As of the week of April 13, 2026, GS's weekly supply chain bottleneck scale remained at 2, while the congestion composite index edged down about 5.9% to 6% w/w. Overall congestion is well below the peak reached in December 2021 to January 2022 and is close to the pre-pandemic supply chain liquidity benchmark.

Core views

The key view is that overall U.S. supply chain congestion remains mild; vessel backlogs at ports have declined and the weekly index has improved slightly, but underlying indicators are not improving uniformly. Rail service, chassis dwell, ocean freight rates, warehouse capacity, and supplier delivery times all show mixed trends. The report emphasizes that the key variables ahead are the effects of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight demand, shipment pacing, and the ability of global trade to normalize.

Analysis framework

The report uses Goldman Sachs' supply chain congestion scale framework, aggregating variables such as the number of vessels waiting at ports, rail intermodal volume and speed, rail and chassis dwell time, ocean freight rates, port import container volumes, PMI supplier delivery times, LMI transportation and warehousing indicators, and China-to-U.S. door-to-door transit time to form a weekly high-frequency congestion scale and a traditional congestion scale that incorporates monthly data.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency supply chain trackingGS Weekly Supply Chain Congestion Scale

  Weekly supply chain congestion scale

  This framework uses higher-frequency weekly variables to gauge the direction of supply chain bottlenecks, with the goal of anticipating the monthly composite indicator by roughly one month.

• Supply chain composite indexGS Legacy Supply Chain Congestion Scale

  Traditional supply chain congestion scale

  This framework combines monthly and weekly data, normalizes each indicator's growth or decline relative to the pre-pandemic benchmark, and assigns higher weight to variables more directly tied to bottlenecks.

• Benchmark settingPre-pandemic benchmark

  Pre-pandemic liquidity benchmark

  The report uses February 3, 2020 as the pre-pandemic benchmark to measure whether the current transportation and logistics network is closer to being fully congested or fully open.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. transportation and logistics industry

  Report tracking subject

  Strengths

  Overall congestion is close to pre-pandemic liquidity, vessel backlogs at ports have declined, and some dwell times have improved.

  Weaknesses

  Rail intermodal volume is still down YoY, and some chassis dwell, transportation capacity, and delivery-time indicators remain weak.

  Comparison

  The current bottleneck scale is far below the peak near 10 in December 2021 to January 2022.

  Risks

  Tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, changes in trade flow timing, and demand volatility could push congestion back up.

• Ocean shipping and port chain

  Key source of indicators

  Strengths

  West Coast inbound vessels fell to 0, East Coast backlog declined to 4 vessels, and San Pedro Bay dwell time improved.

  Weaknesses

  China-to-U.S. West Coast ocean freight rates shifted from nearly flat to +7.7% YoY.

  Comparison

  Door-to-door transit time of 47 days is well below the 80+ days seen at the congestion peak.

  Risks

  Import pull-forward or delay, tariff disruptions, and localized port backlogs may affect near-term readings.

• Rail intermodal and trucking

  Inland transportation monitoring subject within the supply chain

  Strengths

  UNP and BNSF terminal dwell times edged down slightly.

  Weaknesses

  Average West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal volume is -3% YoY, BNSF and UNP speed metrics show mixed performance, and trucking employment remains below the pre-pandemic high.

  Comparison

  Rail container dwell of 5.1 days is far below the roughly 16-day peak in 2022.

  Risks

  A transportation capacity index of 41.0 could create new inland transportation bottlenecks if demand recovers.

Key data

• Weekly bottleneck scale2Remained at 2 this week, indicating congestion is still relatively mild.
• Weekly composite index change-5.9% w/wExhibit 1 shows the composite index declined w/w over the latest week.
• West Coast inbound container ships0 vesselsDown from 1 vessel the prior week to 0 vessels.
• East Coast inbound container ships4 vesselsDown from 5 vessels the prior week to 4 vessels.
• West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal volume-3% YoYThe average YoY decline was roughly flat versus last week.
• BNSF intermodal volume+2.6% YoYLast week was +1.9% YoY.
• UNP intermodal volume-9.0% YoYLast week was -8.7% YoY.
• UNP terminal dwell time20.1 hoursEdged down from 20.3 hours to 20.1 hours.
• BNSF terminal dwell time22.5 hoursEdged down from 22.6 hours to 22.5 hours.
• 20-foot chassis street dwell4.9 daysIn week 14 of 2026, below 5.3 days in week 13.
• 40/45-foot chassis street dwell6.9 daysAbove 6.5 days in week 13.
• China to U.S. West Coast ocean freight rate~$2.42k, +7.7% YoYThe prior week was about $2.18k, -0.1% YoY.
• San Pedro Bay container weighted-average dwell2.6 daysFebruary was below January's 2.8 days.
• Rail container dwell5.1 daysFebruary was below January's 6.1 days and well below the roughly 16-day peak in 2022.
• Heavy import containers at the three major West Coast ports+0.6% YoYLA, Long Beach, and Oakland combined saw a slight YoY increase in February.
• China-to-U.S. door-to-door transit time47 daysOctober data, close to the pre-pandemic average transit time and well below the 80+ days seen at the congestion peak.
• LMI transportation capacity index41.0February was below January's 47.1, indicating a deeper contraction in transportation capacity.
• LMI warehousing capacity index50.0Flat versus January, showing warehouse capacity neither expanded nor contracted.
• LMI warehousing utilization index60.3February was above January's 54.4, showing faster expansion in warehouse utilization.
• PMI supplier delivery times45.4Below 50 indicates longer delivery times, i.e. slower delivery; +4.6% YoY in February.

Impact & implications

For transportation, retail, consumer goods, and inflation pricing, continued improvement in supply chain liquidity should help reduce supply-side bottlenecks and logistics cost pressure; however, shrinking transportation capacity, rising warehouse utilization, supplier delivery times below 50, and ocean freight rates turning positive YoY show that the improvement is uneven. If tariffs or geopolitical conflicts change the import pace, freight demand and congestion indicators could be disturbed again.

Risks

• Tariff policy may change freight demand and shipment timing.
• Geopolitical conflicts may disrupt the normalization of global trade.
• Shrinking transportation capacity and rising warehouse utilization may weaken supply chain buffers.
• Ocean freight rates turning positive YoY may indicate a re-emergence of cost pressure or supply-demand mismatches.
• Supplier delivery times below 50 indicate that delivery times are still lengthening.

What to watch

• Whether the weekly bottleneck scale moves further from 2 and stabilizes in the 1 range.
• Whether the number of inbound container ships on the East and West Coasts continues to decline or rebounds.
• Whether BNSF and UNP intermodal volume, terminal dwell time, and train speed improve.
• Whether China-to-U.S. West Coast ocean freight rates continue to rise.
• Whether LMI transportation capacity, warehousing capacity, warehousing utilization, and PMI supplier delivery times deteriorate in sync.
• The impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight demand, import timing, and global trade normalization.