U.S. supply chain congestion remains low, with divergent performance across transportation segments

Overview

The report tracks the Goldman Sachs supply chain congestion scale and its weekly and monthly sub-indicators. The core conclusion is that U.S. supply chain congestion remains mild, with the current bottleneck scale at 2, significantly below the peak in December 2021 to January 2022 and broadly close to pre-pandemic liquidity levels. However, the latest weekly composite index rose sequentially, and indicators such as port backlogs, rail service, chassis dwell, ocean freight rates, warehouse capacity, and supplier delivery times do not move entirely in the same direction.

Core views

First, the overall supply chain has not re-entered a severe bottleneck state, and a scale reading of 2 indicates that system liquidity remains relatively good. Second, short-term indicators are divergent: the number of waiting vessels has increased slightly, rail intermodal volumes have improved, but rail service indicators, chassis dwell, and warehousing indicators show localized pressure. Third, tariffs and geopolitical conflicts remain important variables affecting freight demand, the timing of goods flows, and the normalization of global trade. Fourth, if supply chain pressures continue to ease, the 2026 congestion scale may fall more steadily into the 1 range.

Analysis framework

The report evaluates supply chain liquidity using both weekly high-frequency indicators and lagged monthly indicators. Weekly indicators include ships waiting at ports, rail intermodal volume, rail speed and dwell time, chassis dwell time, and ocean freight rates; monthly indicators include port import container volumes, door-to-door transit time, trucking employment, LMI transportation capacity, warehouse capacity, warehouse utilization, and PMI supplier delivery times. Goldman Sachs compares these indicators against pre-pandemic baselines and assigns higher weights to indicators more directly related to bottlenecks.

Methodology notes

• Supply chain indicator frameworkGS Supply Chain Congestion Scale

  A 1 to 10 supply chain congestion scale

  This scale seeks to quantify the state of the transportation and logistics network from "fully bottlenecked" to "fully uncongested," using the pre-pandemic level around February 3, 2020 as the baseline. A higher score indicates more severe congestion.

• High-frequency forecasting frameworkGS Weekly Bottleneck Index

  Weekly composite congestion index

  The weekly index uses leading high-frequency data updates and is intended to forecast the direction of the monthly composite scale released with about a one-month lag. The report notes that the weekly composite index has good predictive power for the direction of the monthly composite indicator.

• Transportation and logistics sub-indicator monitoringCombined port, rail, chassis, ocean freight, and warehousing indicators

  Cross-validating supply chain liquidity with multiple indicators

  The report synthesizes variables including ships waiting to berth, rail intermodal volume, rail speed, rail dwell, chassis dwell, ocean freight rates, port import box volumes, door-to-door transit days, trucking employment, LMI capacity, and PMI delivery times to avoid relying on a single indicator to judge congestion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Transportation and logistics companies

  Directly related

  Strengths

  A smoother supply chain helps improve network efficiency, shorten delivery cycles, and reduce the cost of extreme congestion.

  Weaknesses

  If congestion eases alongside falling freight rates, revenue elasticity for some carriers and ocean shipping-related companies may decline.

  Comparison

  Current congestion is far below the peak of December 2021 to January 2022 and is closer to pre-pandemic levels.

  Risks

  Tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, rising port backlogs, or capacity contraction could alter the pace of goods flows.

• Retail and consumer goods companies

  Indirectly positively related

  Strengths

  Lower congestion helps improve replenishment, reduce delivery uncertainty, and ease supply chain-driven cost pressures.

  Weaknesses

  If front-loaded demand or trade policy changes cause freight volatility, inventory planning may still face pressure.

  Comparison

  Door-to-door transit time is already well below the peak of more than 80 days and closer to the pre-pandemic norm.

  Risks

  A supplier delivery times index below 50 and shrinking warehouse capacity may indicate that localized supply chain resilience is still insufficient.

• Rail intermodal and port-related assets

  Highly related

  Strengths

  Year-over-year improvement in BNSF and UNP intermodal volumes shows that more goods are moving through the system.

  Weaknesses

  Rail dwell time and speed indicators are mixed, indicating that service quality has not improved comprehensively in sync.

  Comparison

  Port and rail dwell indicators have eased significantly compared with the 2022 congestion peak.

  Risks

  Deterioration in the number of ships waiting to berth, terminal dwell time, or rail speed would affect short-term liquidity assessments.

Key data

• Weekly supply chain congestion scale2Held at 2 in the latest week, well below the peak of 10 in December 2021 to January 2022.
• Weekly composite index+10% w/wRose sequentially in the latest week after -2% in the prior week.
• U.S. West Coast / East Coast vessel backlog1 / 5The West Coast rose from 0 to 1, and the East Coast rose from 4 to 5.
• West Coast Class 1 rail intermodal growth+9% YoYClearly accelerated from about +3% to +3.5% in the prior week.
• BNSF / UNP intermodal volume+9.7% YoY / +8.4% YoYBNSF improved from +7.8% in the prior week, while UNP turned from -0.8% to +8.4%.
• UNP / BNSF terminal dwell time19.9 hours / 23 hoursUNP declined slightly, while BNSF increased from 22.3 hours to 23 hours.
• 20-foot / 40-foot chassis terminal dwell time11.5 days / 6.3 daysVersus 10.2 days / 6.2 days in the prior week.
• China to U.S. West Coast ocean freight rateabout $2.81k, +14% YoYAbout $2.83k and +18% YoY in the prior week, indicating a slowdown in YoY growth.
• San Pedro Bay container weighted average dwell timeabout 2.6 daysBasically flat in March versus February.
• Rail container dwell time4.4 daysMarch was below February's 5.1 days and far below the peak of about 16 days in 2022.
• Import laden containers at the three major West Coast ports-2.0% YoYThe combined March total for Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland declined year over year.
• China to U.S. door-to-door transit time47 daysThe October average was 47 days, close to pre-pandemic levels and well below the peak of more than 80 days.
• LMI transportation capacity index39.2March was below February's 41.0, indicating deeper contraction in transportation capacity.
• LMI warehouse capacity index46.0March was below February, indicating reduced available warehouse capacity.
• LMI warehouse utilization index59.8Still in expansion territory, but below February's 60.3, indicating slower expansion.
• PMI supplier delivery times index44.5Below 50 indicates longer delivery times; March YoY was +6.3%.

Impact & implications

Supply chain liquidity has a direct impact on retailers, consumer goods companies, transportation companies, and inflation pricing. The current low congestion reading means supply chain shocks are generally exerting less pressure on costs and delivery cycles, which is supportive of inventory turnover and stable goods supply; however, localized contraction in transportation capacity, warehouse capacity, and supplier delivery times suggests that shifts in demand timing, tariff disruptions, or geopolitical conflicts could still re-amplify logistics bottlenecks.

Risks

• Changes in tariff policy may affect import demand and the timing of goods flows.
• Geopolitical conflicts may disrupt global trade and shipping routes.
• Contraction in transportation capacity and warehouse capacity may lead to a re-emergence of localized bottlenecks.
• Longer supplier delivery times may indicate that manufacturing supply chains still face frictions.
• Some monthly indicators are lagged, so short-term judgments require continued validation with weekly high-frequency data.

What to watch

• Whether the GS supply chain congestion scale falls further from 2 to 1 and remains stable.
• Whether the number of ships waiting to berth on the U.S. West Coast and East Coast continues to rise.
• Whether BNSF and UNP rail intermodal volume, speed, and terminal dwell time improve consistently in the same direction.
• Whether ocean freight rates from China to the U.S. West Coast continue to slow.
• Whether LMI transportation capacity, warehouse capacity, and warehouse utilization show easing capacity pressure.
• Whether the PMI supplier delivery times index can return above 50.
• The impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on freight demand and transport timing.