U.S. supply chain congestion remains at “2,” but the weekly index rises 5% w/w and localized transportation pressures persist

Overview

The report uses high-frequency weekly indicators and lagged monthly indicators to track the fluidity of the U.S. supply chain. For the week ended August 24, 2026, the congestion index rose moderately w/w, but the congestion rating remained at “2,” far below the peak from December 2021 to January 2022 and close to the pre-pandemic baseline. Localized pressure was primarily evident in East Coast vessel backlogs, ocean freight rates, rail dwell times, and June transportation and warehousing capacity indicators.

Core views

First, the report's overall conclusion is that the U.S. supply chain remains relatively fluid, although the latest week saw a modest reversal. For the week ended August 24, Goldman Sachs' weekly composite congestion index rose 5% w/w, while the congestion rating remained at “2”; the August month-to-date average weekly congestion rating was also “2.” This level is significantly below the “10” recorded at the congestion peak from December 2021 to January 2022 and broadly close to the pre-pandemic baseline of February 2020. The composite index incorporating both weekly and monthly variables averaged “110” in June, corresponding to a congestion rating of “2” but already approaching “1.” If supply chain pressures continue to ease broadly, the report believes the index could settle more consistently within the “1” range during 2026. Port conditions diverged between the West and East Coasts. The number of container vessels awaiting berth and unloading on the U.S. West Coast remained at 1, unchanged from the prior week; the vessel backlog on the East and Gulf Coasts increased from 2 to 3. The West Coast measure includes vessels anchored within 40 miles of the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach as well as vessels slow-steaming while waiting farther offshore. Based on satellite data, the East Coast measure includes container vessels located within 140 miles of U.S. ports, remaining there for at least 3 days, and positioned east of 100 degrees west longitude. These data indicate that overall port queues remain limited, but the latest incremental pressure is concentrated on the East Coast. Intermodal rail volumes continued to grow YoY, but operating efficiency indicators diverged. Average intermodal volume growth for the West Coast Class I railroads BNSF and UNP edged down from 5% in the prior week to 4% YoY, with August average growth of approximately 5%. BNSF's intermodal volume growth slowed from 2.3% to 0.5% YoY, while UNP's accelerated from 7.2% to 8.0%. Terminal dwell times increased for both: UNP's rose from 20.0 hours to 20.2 hours, and BNSF's from 22.2 hours to 22.6 hours. In terms of train speeds, BNSF's YoY growth slowed from 0.7% to 0.3%, while UNP continued to decline 0.7% YoY. Thus, freight volumes remain resilient, but dwell times and speeds have not improved consistently. Container chassis turnover remains significantly better than at the congestion peak. In the latest week, street dwell time for 20-foot container chassis was 4.0 days, unchanged from the prior week; dwell time for 40/45-foot chassis was 5.9 days, also unchanged. The report emphasizes that August chassis dwell times are substantially below the most congested period in the supply chain, indicating that landside equipment turnover has not become a broad bottleneck. Beginning in week 32, following the dissolution of the former Pool of Pools arrangement, the report switched to weekly chassis dwell-time data provided by the Port of Los Angeles. Ocean freight rates are the clearest pressure point in the latest weekly data. Container freight rates from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast were approximately $7,420/FEU, up approximately 9% from around $6,830 in the prior week, while YoY growth expanded from 222% in the prior week to 283%. Although the physical congestion rating remains low, the significant YoY increase in freight rates indicates that transportation costs and port queues are not entirely synchronized. It also makes the supply chain cost signal facing retailers, consumer goods companies, and inflation-related pricing worth monitoring separately. Lagged monthly indicators show broader pressure in June than in May. Weighted average container dwell time in San Pedro Bay increased from approximately 2.6 days to approximately 2.9 days; rail container dwell time rose from 5.2 days to 5.4 days but remained far below the 2022 peak of approximately 16 days. Loaded import container volumes at the three major West Coast ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland increased 12% YoY in June, indicating that despite higher freight volumes, overall dwell levels remain far from returning to extreme congestion. Ground transportation and warehousing capacity indicators were tighter. The LMI Transportation Capacity Index fell from 31.7 in May to 30.8 in June, indicating that transportation capacity contracted at a faster pace; the Warehousing Capacity Index was 47.5, in contraction territory and lower than in May. The Warehousing Utilization Index rose from 62.9 to 69.4, indicating faster utilization growth. The Manufacturing Supplier Deliveries PMI was 42.6; a reading below 50 indicates that delivery times lengthened m/m, while the indicator rose 14.5% YoY. Together, these indicators suggest that although the overall congestion rating is low, available capacity in some transportation and warehousing resources is tightening. Road freight employment also indicates that the capacity base remains weaker than before the pandemic. Truck transportation employment in June was 4.4% below its pre-pandemic peak, and YoY growth averaged negative 1.5% over the past six months; employment declined 0.1% m/m in May. The latest available reading for China-to-U.S. door-to-door transportation time was 47 days in October, broadly stable versus 46 days in September and significantly below the more than 80 days recorded during peak congestion. Due to limited updates from the data provider, the report assumes unchanged transportation times from November through April of the following year when updating the index, so this indicator reflects the latest changes with a lag. The report believes the key variables ahead are how tariffs and geopolitical conflicts will affect freight demand, shipment timing, and the ability of global trade to normalize. The weekly index generally leads the monthly composite index, which lags by approximately one month, and the report expects subsequent monthly updates to validate recent weekly trends. If pressures continue to ease, the rating could move into “1,” but current freight rates, capacity, and certain dwell-time data suggest that the downward trajectory may not be entirely smooth.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs first uses weekly high-frequency data, including vessel backlogs, intermodal rail volumes and speeds, terminal and chassis dwell times, and ocean freight rates, to assess the latest direction, and then uses monthly data, including port dwell times, import container volumes, door-to-door transit times, road freight employment, LMI capacity and utilization, and PMI supplier delivery times, for broader confirmation. Changes in each indicator are calculated relative to the pre-pandemic baseline of February 3, 2020, with greater weights assigned to indicators most directly related to bottlenecks, and the results are ultimately mapped to a congestion rating of 1 to 10. The weekly version is updated every week and serves as a directional indicator leading by approximately one month; the combined weekly and monthly version is updated monthly.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis Framework

  GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale

  The report calculates a weighted aggregate of changes in indicators such as port queues, transportation times, various dwell times, rail volumes, and rail speeds relative to the February 3, 2020 baseline, and maps the result to a congestion rating of 1 to 10; the higher the rating, the more severe the supply chain bottlenecks.

• Cycle and Business Conditions FrameworkBusiness Cycle Inflection Analysis

  Weekly high-frequency indicators lead the monthly composite indicator

  The report uses a high-frequency composite index updated weekly to identify directional changes in the supply chain, which are then confirmed by a more comprehensive monthly composite index that lags by approximately one month.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Industry Chain Transmission

  Port—rail—chassis—warehousing—final delivery chain

  The report simultaneously tracks ocean vessel arrivals, port dwell times, intermodal rail, chassis turnover, warehousing capacity, and supplier delivery times to assess how localized bottlenecks propagate through the transportation and logistics network to retailers, consumer goods companies, and pricing pressures.

Key data

• Weekly Congestion Index+5% w/wRose moderately w/w for the week ended August 24, 2026
• Weekly Congestion Rating2Unchanged from the prior week and far below the historical peak of 10
• June Combined Weekly and Monthly Index110Corresponds to congestion rating 2 but is close to rating 1
• West Coast Container Vessels Awaiting Berth1 vesselUnchanged w/w
• East and Gulf Coast Container Vessels Awaiting Berth3 vessels2 vessels in the prior week
• Average Intermodal Volume Growth for West Coast Class I Railroads+4% YoY+5% in the prior week; August average approximately +5%
• BNSF and UNP Intermodal Volume Growth+0.5% YoY / +8.0% YoY+2.3% and +7.2%, respectively, in the prior week
• UNP and BNSF Terminal Dwell Times20.2 hours / 22.6 hours20.0 hours and 22.2 hours, respectively, in the prior week
• 20-Foot and 40/45-Foot Chassis Street Dwell Times4.0 days / 5.9 daysBoth unchanged from the prior week and significantly below the congestion peak
• East Asia-to-U.S. West Coast Freight RateApproximately $7,420/FEUApproximately +9% w/w and +283% YoY; approximately $6,830 and +222% YoY in the prior week
• San Pedro Bay Weighted Average Container Dwell TimeApproximately 2.9 daysJune data, versus approximately 2.6 days in May
• Rail Container Dwell Time5.4 days5.2 days in May, still far below the 2022 peak of approximately 16 days
• Loaded Import Container Volume at Three Major West Coast Ports+12% YoYCombined June total for the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland
• LMI Transportation Capacity Index30.8Below 31.7 in May, indicating a faster contraction in capacity
• LMI Warehousing Capacity and Utilization Indices47.5 / 69.4Warehousing capacity contracted in June, while utilization rose from 62.9 in May to 69.4
• Manufacturing Supplier Deliveries PMI42.6Below 50 in June, indicating longer delivery times; +14.5% YoY
• Truck Transportation Employment4.4% below the pre-pandemic peakYoY growth averaged -1.5% over the past six months; -0.1% m/m in May
• China-to-U.S. Door-to-Door Transportation Time47 daysOctober data, versus 46 days in September and significantly below the more than 80 days recorded at the congestion peak

Impact & implications

The report believes that overall supply chain fluidity means broad bottlenecks have not re-emerged, but rising ocean freight rates, contracting transportation and warehousing capacity, and increases in certain dwell times may continue to affect retailers, consumer goods companies, and inflation-related pricing. The rise in weekly indicators requires confirmation from subsequent monthly data, and localized pressure in transportation links should not be overlooked solely because the overall congestion rating remains low.

Risks

• Changes in tariffs may alter freight demand and shipment timing, affecting the path toward supply chain normalization.
• Geopolitical conflicts may disrupt global trade and transportation flows, causing supply chain pressures to rise again.

What to watch

• Monitor whether the weekly congestion index can move more consistently from the “2” range into the “1” range.
• Watch whether subsequent monthly composite indices confirm the direction of recent weekly indicators.
• Track changes in vessels awaiting berth on the East and West Coasts, ocean freight rates, rail dwell times, and rail speeds.
• Monitor LMI transportation and warehousing capacity, warehouse utilization, and PMI supplier delivery times.
• Continue assessing the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight demand, shipment timing, and the normalization of global trade.