US Supply Chain Congestion Index Remains Low, Monitor Transportation Sub-segments
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US Supply Chain Congestion Index Remains Low, Monitor Transportation Sub-segments
Goldman Sachs' Supply Chain Congestion Index held at '2' this week, near pre-pandemic levels; backlog of vessels on the East and West Coasts diverged, while freight rates year-over-year growth accelerated slightly to 18%.
- Congestion index remains at '2', declining for two consecutive weeks (-2% w/w)
- West Coast vessel backlog decreased from 1 to 0, East Coast increased from 2 to 4
- China to US West Coast ocean freight rates up +18% YoY, accelerating from last week's +17%
- Rail intermodal traffic growth slowed (+3% YoY vs +4%)
- Chassis dwell time remained generally stable, near pre-pandemic levels
Report interpretation
Overview
This is Goldman Sachs' weekly supply chain congestion tracking report. The core conclusion is that US supply chain congestion remains at low levels. The GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale (1-10) held at '2' this week, close to the pre-pandemic baseline, significantly lower than the late 2021 peak of '10'. By tracking high-frequency indicators such as vessel backlogs, rail intermodal volume, chassis dwell times, and ocean freight rates, the report assesses that overall supply chain pressure has eased, though attention should be paid to potential impacts of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight demand.
Core views
Congestion Index and Component Indicators: The comprehensive congestion index declined 2% week-over-week, marking its second consecutive decline; the scale score remained at '2', indicating overall supply chain fluidity. Divergence in vessel backlogs between coasts: Waiting container ships at the West Coast fell from 1 to 0, while those at the East Coast rose from 2 to 4, though absolute levels remain low. Transportation Data: Year-over-year growth in intermodal traffic for primary Western Class I railroads (BNSF and UNP) slowed to +3% (from +4% last week), with BNSF at +7.8% and UNP at -0.8%; railroad terminal dwell times remained largely stable. Chassis dwell times (20ft/40ft) were 4.2 days and 5.7 days respectively, a significant decrease from pandemic peaks. Freight Rates and Lead Times: Ocean freight rates from China to US West Coast are approximately $2,830 per TEU, up 18% YoY (from 17% last week), showing slight acceleration in growth rate; March PMI Supplier Delivery Time Index was 44.5 (below 50 indicates shortened delivery times), up 6.3% YoY.
Analysis framework
Goldman Sachs constructs the Supply Chain Congestion Scale using a weighted multi-indicator approach: selecting variables that directly reflect bottlenecks, such as the number of anchored vessels, dwell times for containers/chassis, and door-to-door transit days, assigning them higher weights, and comparing them against the February 2020 pre-pandemic baseline. High-frequency indicators (e.g., vessel backlog, freight rates) are updated weekly, while composite indicators (e.g., PMI, LMI capacity utilization) are updated monthly to forecast monthly trends based on weekly data. The report emphasizes the reference value of this scale for retailers, consumer goods companies, and inflation pricing.
Methodology notes
Supply chain congestion is essentially a supply-demand balance issue within logistics networks
The research note tracks waiting times and capacity utilization across transport segments like vessels, railways, and chassis to determine if the supply chain is in a 'bottleneck' state (Demand > Supply) or a 'fluid' state (Supply ≥ Demand). A scale of 1 represents full fluidity, while 10 represents a complete bottleneck.
High-frequency data used to capture marginal changes in supply chain momentum
The weekly report uses week-over-week changes in weekly indicators (such as vessel backlog and freight rates) to anticipate the direction of monthly composite indices ahead of time, helping investors identify tipping points where supply chains begin to ease or deteriorate.
Logistics efficiency affects downstream retail and consumer goods costs
The report notes that supply chain fluidity directly impacts retailer inventory, pricing power for consumer goods companies, and inflation pressures; thus, the congestion index serves as one tool for observing leading signals of inflation.
Key data
- GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale Score21-10 scale; '2' indicates proximity to pre-pandemic fluid levels, with a peak previously reaching '10'
- Comprehensive Congestion Index Week-over-Week Change-2%Declined for the second consecutive week; last week was -3%
- West Coast Vessel Backlog0 vesselsDecreased from 1 vessel to 0
- East Coast Vessel Backlog4 vesselsIncreased from 2 vessels to 4
- Ocean Freight Rates China to US West Coast~$2,830 per boxUp 18% YoY, up 17% last week
- Rail Intermodal Traffic Growth Rate+3% YoYLast week was +4%, BNSF +7.8%, UNP -0.8%
- PMI Supplier Delivery Time Index44.5Below 50 indicates shortened delivery times, up 6.3% YoY
Impact & implications
The research note posits that easing supply chain congestion helps reduce logistics costs, improves retailer inventory turnover, and supports downward pressure on inflation. If pressure continues to ease, the congestion index may spend more time in the '1' range throughout 2026. However, tariffs and geopolitical conflicts remain uncertain factors on the demand side that could affect the pace of freight flows and the normalization of global trade.
Risks
- Impacts of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight demand and timing
- Supply chain pressure easing slower than expected
- Short-term fluctuations in the index due to volatility in high-frequency data
What to watch
- Whether the congestion index falls further into the '1' range
- Trends in vessel backlogs on both coasts
- Whether the year-over-year growth rate of ocean freight rates continues to accelerate
- Monthly data on the PMI delivery time index and LMI capacity utilization