U.S. supply chain congestion remains low, with the weekly index down 0.7%

Overview

The report tracks congestion in the U.S. transportation and logistics network through high-frequency weekly indicators and lagging monthly indicators. As of August 10, the weekly composite index declined 0.7% week over week, and the supply chain bottleneck level remained at "2" for another week. This level is far below the peak level of "10", indicating that major logistics links such as ports, railways and container chassis remain generally smooth and close to pre-pandemic benchmarks. However, indicators remain divergent: the number of vessels waiting at ports is stable, rail intermodal volume growth has improved, rail dwell time has risen slightly, and ocean freight rates have retreated week over week but remain elevated year over year.

Core views

The U.S. supply chain has largely moved past the systemic congestion seen during the pandemic, with the main issue shifting from broad logistics bottlenecks to localized fluctuations in pricing and operating indicators. West Coast port backlogs remain extremely low, rail intermodal volumes continue to show year-over-year growth, and container chassis street dwell times are also significantly below peak levels. At the same time, some lagging indicators weakened in June, including higher container dwell times in port areas, contraction in transportation and warehousing capacity, and longer supplier delivery times. If supply chain pressure continues to ease, the congestion level could more steadily enter the "1" range in 2026; however, tariff policy, geopolitical conflicts and shifts in the timing of cargo flows could still interrupt the improvement trend.

Analysis framework

Using the pre-pandemic state on February 3, 2020 as the benchmark, the report aggregates indicators such as vessels waiting at ports, rail intermodal volumes and speeds, rail and chassis dwell times, ocean freight rates, port throughput, supplier delivery times, and China-U.S. door-to-door transportation times into a composite index. The weekly version uses only high-frequency indicators to improve timeliness, while the traditional monthly version incorporates broader lagging variables for directional confirmation; indicators more directly related to supply chain bottlenecks receive higher weights.

Methodology notes

• Supply Chain High-Frequency MonitoringGS Weekly Supply Chain Congestion Scale

  Measures the state of the U.S. supply chain from fully fluid to fully congested on a scale of 1 to 10.

  The weekly index aggregates high-frequency indicators such as vessels waiting at ports, rail intermodal volumes and speeds, rail and chassis dwell times, and ocean freight rates, and calculates changes relative to the pre-pandemic benchmark; a level of "1" represents the most fluid conditions, while "10" represents the most congested.

• Composite Indicator AnalysisGS Legacy Supply Chain Congestion Scale

  Uses weekly and monthly variables to comprehensively confirm the direction of supply chain congestion.

  The legacy composite scale incorporates monthly indicators such as port-area container dwell, port throughput, LMI capacity and utilization, PMI supplier delivery times, and China-U.S. door-to-door transportation days, and assigns higher weights to variables directly related to bottlenecks.

• Leading and Confirmation IndicatorsWeekly leading, monthly confirmation framework

  Uses high-frequency weekly data to forecast the direction of monthly composite indicators with a lag of about one month.

  The weekly scale is typically released on Monday evening or Tuesday morning and is intended to provide a leading signal; the broader monthly scale is then used to confirm congestion trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. rail and intermodal companies

  Rail intermodal volumes continue to grow year over year, and improved supply chain fluidity supports cargo turnover.

  Strengths

  Both BNSF and UNP recorded positive year-over-year growth in intermodal volumes, with West Coast intermodal volume averaging about 7% growth in July.

  Weaknesses

  Terminal dwell time rose slightly, and operating indicators have not improved fully in sync.

  Comparison

  BNSF's intermodal volume growth accelerated this week, while UNP's growth slowed from the prior week; train speed performance improved for both.

  Risks

  Slower trade flows, tariff shocks, shifts in port cargo volumes and declining terminal efficiency.

• Ocean shipping and container transportation companies

  Freight rates from China and East Asia to the U.S. West Coast remain significantly above the same period last year.

  Strengths

  The roughly 162% year-over-year increase in freight rates can support revenue and profitability on related routes.

  Weaknesses

  Freight rates have shown consecutive week-over-week declines, while port congestion is low.

  Comparison

  The latest freight rate is about $6.13k/FEU, below about $6.21k/FEU in the prior week, but the year-over-year increase remains as high as 162%.

  Risks

  Capacity release, demand decline, further supply chain normalization and changes in trade policy could put downward pressure on freight rates.

• U.S. retail and consumer goods companies

  Low congestion helps improve inventory replenishment efficiency and reduce transportation delays.

  Strengths

  Port backlogs are low, chassis dwell times are falling, and China-U.S. transportation times are close to pre-pandemic levels.

  Weaknesses

  Ocean freight rates remain elevated, and rising warehousing utilization may limit improvement in logistics costs.

  Comparison

  Physical transportation efficiency is much better than at the 2021-2022 peak, but cost indicators have not fully returned to normal.

  Risks

  Tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, early peak-season inventory build and shifts in cargo flow timing could push costs higher again.

• U.S. inflation-sensitive assets

  Smooth supply chains generally help reduce pressure on goods prices and delivery cycles.

  Strengths

  The overall congestion level is close to the fully fluid range, and the risk of systemic supply shocks is relatively low.

  Weaknesses

  Ocean freight rates remain high year over year, and PMI supplier delivery times still indicate longer deliveries.

  Comparison

  Compared with the pandemic period, the inflationary impulse from logistics bottlenecks has weakened significantly, but it has not fully disappeared.

  Risks

  Trade barriers, energy prices, wars and route disruptions could recreate imported inflation.

Key data

• Weekly congestion level2Unchanged this week and well below the peak level of 10.
• Weekly composite index change-0.7% week over weekThe index declined slightly, indicating that congestion continued to ease.
• Container ships waiting off the West Coast1 vesselUnchanged over the past week.
• Container ships waiting off the East and Gulf Coasts5 vesselsEstimated based on satellite data and unchanged over the past week.
• West Coast Class I rail intermodal volumeAbout +6% year over yearThe average growth rate for BNSF and UNP accelerated from about +5% in the prior week.
• BNSF intermodal volume+5.7% year over yearCompared with +1.2% in the prior week.
• UNP intermodal volume+5.5% year over yearCompared with +8.2% in the prior week.
• Rail terminal dwell timeUNP 19.9 hours; BNSF 22.7 hoursSlightly up from 19.8 hours and 22.3 hours, respectively.
• China-U.S. West Coast ocean freight rateAbout $6.13k/FEUDown about 1% week over week and up 162% year over year.
• 20-foot chassis street dwell time4.3 daysDown from 5.1 days in the prior week in week 26 of 2026.
• 40/45-foot chassis street dwell time5.9 daysDown from 6.5 days in the prior week in week 26 of 2026.
• San Pedro Bay container weighted average dwell timeAbout 2.9 daysHigher in June than about 2.6 days in May.
• San Pedro Bay rail container dwell time5.4 daysHigher in June than 5.2 days in May, but far below the peak of about 16 days in 2022.
• Loaded import containers at the three major West Coast ports+12% year over yearJune combined data for LA, Long Beach and Oakland.
• China-to-U.S. door-to-door transportation time47 daysSignificantly below the more than 80 days seen at the congestion peak and close to the pre-pandemic average.
• LMI transportation capacity index30.8Lower than 31.7 in May, indicating an accelerated contraction in transportation capacity.
• LMI warehousing utilization index69.4Higher than 62.9 in May, indicating accelerated expansion in warehousing utilization.
• PMI manufacturing supplier delivery time index42.6Below 50 in June, indicating longer delivery times; the year-over-year change was +14.5%.

Impact & implications

A low-congestion environment is beneficial for retailers and consumer goods companies by improving replenishment reliability, reducing stockout risk, and helping ease goods inflation pressure caused by transportation delays. For railroads, ports and logistics companies, freight volume growth can still support business activity, but as the logistics network returns to smooth operation, the persistence of congestion surcharges and unusually high prices may decline. The sharp year-over-year increase in ocean freight rates indicates that logistics costs have not fully normalized, and corporate margin improvement still depends on freight rates, tariffs and geopolitical conditions. The localized deterioration in monthly indicators also means that low weekly congestion levels alone should not be used to conclude that all supply chain links have improved in sync.

Risks

• Tariff policy may alter import demand, transportation routes and inventory build timing.
• Geopolitical conflicts may lead to route disruptions, higher freight rates or renewed supply chain congestion.
• Although ocean freight rates declined week over week, they remain up as much as 162% year over year, and cost pressure has not yet dissipated.
• Both port-area container and rail container dwell times rose in June versus May.
• Transportation and warehousing capacity indexes indicate capacity contraction, which could create new bottlenecks when peak-season demand rises.
• Some chassis dwell and door-to-door transportation data use flat assumptions due to limited updates from data providers, which may reduce the timeliness of the index.
• The number of vessels waiting off the East Coast and Gulf Coast is estimated from satellite data and is subject to measurement error.

What to watch

• Whether the weekly congestion level can decline further and stabilize from "2" to "1".
• Whether ocean freight rates from China and East Asia to the U.S. West Coast continue to decline week over week.
• Whether the number of container ships waiting off the U.S. East and West Coasts rebounds during the peak season.
• Whether BNSF and UNP intermodal volumes, train speeds and terminal dwell times can improve in sync.
• Whether updated chassis dwell data continue to support the current low-congestion assessment.
• Subsequent changes in LMI transportation capacity, warehousing capacity and warehousing utilization.
• Whether PMI manufacturing supplier delivery times rise back above 50.
• The impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight demand, early inventory build and normalization of global trade.