Goldman Sachs' U.S. supply chain congestion weekly index declines; bottleneck score remains at a low '2'
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Goldman Sachs' U.S. supply chain congestion weekly index declines; bottleneck score remains at a low '2'
This week, Goldman Sachs' U.S. supply chain congestion composite index fell 6% w/w. West Coast and East Coast vessel backlogs remained low, and overall congestion stayed far below the 2021/2022 peak and close to pre-pandemic fluidity.
- The weekly bottleneck score remained at '2', and the June average weekly score was about 2.0, well below the congestion peaks in December 2021/January 2022.
- The number of container ships waiting to berth on the West Coast remained at 1, while East Coast and Gulf Coast backlogs fell from 5 to 3 vessels.
- West Coast Class 1 intermodal rail volume growth slowed from about 16% last week to about 11%, reflecting mixed rail service indicators.
- Freight rates from China/East Asia to the U.S. West Coast were about $4.84k per FEU, flat w/w, but the y/y decline widened to about 19%.
- If supply chain pressure continues to ease, Goldman Sachs believes the 2026 index could settle more steadily in the '1' range.
Report interpretation
Overview
Goldman Sachs updates its weekly tracking of U.S. supply chain congestion in this report. The report uses indicators such as vessel backlogs, intermodal rail, chassis dwell time, freight rates, port dwell time, truck employment, the LMI, and PMI to measure the liquidity of the U.S. logistics network. The latest results show the weekly composite congestion index fell 6% w/w, while the bottleneck score remained at '2', indicating congestion remains low and conditions are broadly close to pre-pandemic fluidity.
Core views
The key takeaway is that U.S. supply chain congestion remains modest, with current bottleneck levels far below the 2021/2022 peak. Most weekly data improved or stayed low, including lower East Coast vessel backlogs, shorter street dwell times for typical 20-foot chassis, and stable w/w freight rates. Negative or watch items include slower intermodal rail growth, some rail speed indicators still down y/y, a contraction in transportation and warehousing capacity in April, and potential disruptions from tariffs and geopolitical conflicts to freight demand and timing.
Analysis framework
The report combines high-frequency weekly indicators with lagging monthly indicators to track multiple parts of the U.S. supply chain, from ports and ocean freight to rail, trucking, and warehousing. The weekly index emphasizes leading signals, while the monthly composite index is used to confirm the trend. The scoring system compares current congestion with the pre-pandemic baseline of February 3, 2020, and assigns greater weight to indicators more directly tied to bottlenecks.
Methodology notes
Weekly bottleneck score
This framework uses only weekly indicators to observe the direction of supply chain congestion at higher frequency, including waiting vessels, intermodal rail volume and speed, rail dwell time, chassis dwell time, and ocean freight rates.
Weekly and monthly composite score
This framework combines weekly and monthly variables, aggregating each indicator's change relative to pre-pandemic levels into a composite scale used to judge where the supply chain sits between 'fully blocked' and 'fully open'.
Congestion change relative to the February 3, 2020 baseline
The report compares current vessel backlogs, dwell times, transit times, and freight rates with the pre-pandemic baseline to estimate whether the logistics network has returned to normal flow.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Ocean freight and container shippingDirectly related
- Strengths
- Vessel backlogs are low, freight rates are stable w/w, and overall congestion has eased materially from the peak.
- Weaknesses
- The y/y decline in freight rates shows weak pricing momentum, and demand or capacity balance remains under pressure.
- Comparison
- Current freight rates from China/East Asia to the U.S. West Coast are about $4.84k/FEU, far below the pressure levels seen at the congestion peak.
- Risks
- Tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and global trade disruptions could change freight timing and route demand.
- Intermodal railDirectly related
- Strengths
- BNSF and UNP intermodal volumes are still growing y/y.
- Weaknesses
- Growth slowed from last week, and rail speed and dwell metrics are mixed.
- Comparison
- West Coast Class 1 intermodal rail growth slowed from about 16% to about 11% y/y.
- Risks
- If rail speeds worsen or dwell times rise, the port de-bottlenecking effect could weaken.
- Ports and chassis equipmentDirectly related
- Strengths
- 20-foot chassis street dwell time declined, and chassis dwell remains far better than at the congestion peak.
- Weaknesses
- 40/45-foot chassis street dwell time edged higher, and some terminal dwell still warrants monitoring.
- Comparison
- 20-foot chassis street dwell time fell from 4.7 days to 4.4 days.
- Risks
- Port throughput swings or changes in import cadence could lengthen dwell times again.
- Trucking and warehousingRelated to macro costs and inventory turnover
- Strengths
- Door-to-door transit time is close to pre-pandemic levels, indicating the overall chain is more fluid.
- Weaknesses
- Truck employment remains below pre-pandemic highs, and LMI transportation and warehousing capacity readings are below 50.
- Comparison
- April LMI transportation capacity was 28.4, down further from 39.2 in March; warehousing utilization rose to 64.4.
- Risks
- Capacity contraction combined with demand recovery could recreate localized bottlenecks.
- Retail and consumer goods companiesRelated to macro costs and inventory turnover
- Strengths
- Improving supply chain fluidity can help reduce shipping delays, safety stock needs, and cost pressure.
- Weaknesses
- Demand timing and trade-policy uncertainty may still affect replenishment and import plans.
- Comparison
- The current bottleneck score is '2', clearly better than the peak '10' period.
- Risks
- If tariffs or geopolitical tensions disrupt order timing and transport schedules, the improvement could reverse.
Key data
- Weekly composite index change-6% w/wThe latest weekly Goldman Sachs composite congestion index declined w/w.
- Weekly bottleneck score'2'The score was unchanged, indicating bottlenecks remain low.
- June average weekly score2.0Well below the congestion peaks in December 2021/January 2022 and close to the pre-pandemic baseline.
- West Coast waiting container ships1 vesselUnchanged from the prior week.
- East Coast and Gulf Coast container ship backlog3 vesselsDown from 5 vessels previously.
- West Coast Class 1 intermodal rail growth+11% YoYDown from about +16% YoY last week.
- BNSF / UNP intermodal volumesBNSF +12% YoY; UNP +10% YoYBoth still grew y/y, but both slowed from last week.
- 20-foot chassis street dwell time4.4 daysDown from 4.7 days the prior week.
- 40/45-foot chassis street dwell time6.3 daysSlightly above 6.2 days the prior week.
- Freight rates from China/East Asia to the U.S. West Coastabout $4.84k/FEU; -19% YoYEssentially flat w/w, while the y/y decline widened.
- San Pedro's Bay weighted average container dwell timeabout 2.6 daysBroadly unchanged between April and March.
- Rail container dwell time5.1 daysAbove March's 4.4 days, but far below the roughly 16-day peak in 2022.
- Big Three West Coast port inbound laden containers-1.0% YoYCombined volume for Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland declined y/y in April.
- China-to-U.S. door-to-door transit time47 daysClose to the pre-pandemic average and well below the congestion peak of more than 80 days.
- LMI transportation capacity28.4The April reading was below March's 39.2, indicating a deeper contraction in transportation capacity.
- LMI warehousing capacity45.5The April reading was below 50, indicating a contraction in warehousing capacity.
- LMI warehousing utilization64.4The April reading was above March's 59.8, indicating expansion in warehousing utilization.
- PMI manufacturing supplier delivery times42.4; +10.7% YoYA reading below 50 indicates delivery times lengthened w/w.
Impact & implications
For investors, persistently low supply chain congestion supports easing cost and inventory-turnover pressure for retail, consumer goods, manufacturing, and logistics-related industries, and may also reduce inflationary pricing pressure. However, transportation capacity contraction, higher warehousing utilization, mixed rail service, and tariff and geopolitical risks mean supply chain normalization is not one-way or certain, and high-frequency indicators should continue to be monitored to confirm the trend.
Risks
- Tariff policy could alter import demand, front-loading, and replenishment timing.
- Geopolitical conflicts could affect global trade normalization and transport routes.
- Transportation and warehousing capacity contraction could recreate localized bottlenecks if demand rebounds.
- Divergence in intermodal rail speed and dwell metrics could drag on inland logistics efficiency.
- Some monthly indicators lag, so weekly improvement still needs confirmation from subsequent monthly data.
What to watch
- Whether the weekly bottleneck score moves further from '2' into the '1' range and stays there.
- Container ship waiting counts on the West Coast, East Coast, and Gulf Coast.
- BNSF and UNP intermodal volumes, speeds, and terminal dwell times.
- Street and terminal dwell times for 20-foot and 40/45-foot chassis.
- Freight rates from China/East Asia to the U.S. West Coast and their y/y changes.
- Monthly data for container dwell at San Pedro's Bay and rail container dwell.
- LMI transportation capacity, warehousing capacity, warehousing utilization, and PMI supplier delivery times.
- The impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on freight timing and global trade.