GS supply chain congestion gauge remains at 2, overall close to pre-pandemic fluidity

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' weekly tracking of U.S. supply chain congestion conditions. The core conclusion is that supply chain bottlenecks remain relatively moderate: the GS weekly congestion gauge stayed at 2, overall close to pre-pandemic fluidity levels and far below the peak congestion state seen in late 2021 to early 2022 when the gauge reached 10. However, the latest weekly composite index rose 7% sequentially, and some divergence appeared across ports, rail, chassis dwell, ocean freight rates, warehousing, and PMI supplier delivery time indicators.

Core views

Goldman Sachs' core view is that the current U.S. supply chain has not re-entered a state of broad-based congestion, but marginal indicators are not improving in a one-way fashion. Vessel backlogs remain low overall, with the West Coast steady at 1 ship and the East Coast rising from 4 to 5 ships; rail intermodal volumes have weakened significantly, and service indicators are mixed; chassis dwell times are sharply lower than peak levels but have edged up recently; ocean freight rate year-over-year growth has accelerated slightly. If supply chain pressures continue to ease, the 2026 congestion index may fall more stably into the 1 range; however, tariffs and geopolitical conflicts could change freight demand and shipping timing.

Analysis framework

The report observes supply chain fluidity through both weekly high-frequency indicators and lagged monthly indicators. The high-frequency portion includes container ships waiting to berth, rail intermodal volume, rail speed, rail terminal dwell, chassis dwell, and ocean freight rates; the monthly portion includes laden import containers at ports, door-to-door transit time, trucking employment, LMI transportation and warehousing indicators, and PMI supplier delivery times. Goldman Sachs standardizes and weights these indicators relative to a pre-pandemic baseline to form the GS supply chain congestion gauge.

Methodology notes

• Supply Chain Congestion Quantification FrameworkGS Supply Chain Congestion Gauge

  Uses a 1-to-10 scale to characterize the supply chain from fully open to severely bottlenecked

  This gauge aggregates variables such as vessel backlogs, delivery days, chassis and container dwell, rail intermodal volume, and speed, and compares them with the pre-pandemic baseline around February 3, 2020, to measure the overall fluidity of the transportation and logistics network.

• Weekly High-Frequency IndicatorsGS Weekly Supply Chain Congestion Gauge

  Uses more timely data to anticipate the direction of the monthly composite index

  Goldman Sachs publishes the weekly gauge on Monday night or Tuesday morning each week to reflect leading marginal changes; the report states that the weekly composite indicator usually predicts the direction of the more comprehensive but lagged monthly composite index reasonably well.

• Monthly Composite IndicatorGS Traditional Supply Chain Congestion Gauge

  Combines weekly and monthly variables to confirm congestion trends

  The traditional gauge includes both monthly and weekly variables, offering broader coverage, but the data lag by about one month and are used to confirm the direction of supply chain congestion.

• Indicator InterpretationPMI Supplier Delivery Times

  Below 50 indicates longer delivery times and a slower supply chain

  The report explains that a PMI supplier delivery time index reading of 50 means no change from the previous month, above 50 means faster deliveries, and below 50 means slower deliveries.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. transportation and logistics equities

  Directly related

  Strengths

  Supply chain congestion remains low, helping improve transportation network fluidity and reduce systemic bottleneck risk.

  Weaknesses

  Rail intermodal volumes turned negative year over year, and some service indicators diverged, suggesting demand or operating efficiency remains unstable.

  Comparison

  Current congestion is significantly below the peak in late 2021 to early 2022 and is closer to the pre-pandemic baseline.

  Risks

  If tariffs, geopolitics, or demand mismatches drive a concentrated release of freight flows, the transportation network could come under renewed pressure.

• Rail intermodal chain

  Highly correlated

  Strengths

  Some terminal dwell indicators remain below historical congestion peaks, and BNSF terminal dwell improved slightly.

  Weaknesses

  West Coast Class I rail intermodal volume slowed from +14% YoY to -2% YoY, and growth at both BNSF and UNP weakened significantly.

  Comparison

  Current service conditions have improved versus the peak congestion period, but short-term momentum is weaker than the previous week.

  Risks

  Declining intermodal volume, weaker train speeds, or rising terminal dwell could affect rail operating efficiency and freight flows.

• Ocean shipping and port chain

  Highly correlated

  Strengths

  Vessel backlog remains low, with only 1 ship on the West Coast, and overall port congestion is far below peak levels.

  Weaknesses

  East Coast backlog rose from 4 ships to 5 ships, and year-over-year growth in ocean freight rates edged up slightly.

  Comparison

  Door-to-door transit time is 47 days, far below the peak above 80 days.

  Risks

  Route disruptions, demand pull-forward, or localized port congestion could push up freight rates and delivery cycles.

• Retail and consumer goods companies

  Indirectly related

  Strengths

  Improved supply chain fluidity helps reduce pressure on inventory turnover and logistics costs.

  Weaknesses

  If warehousing capacity contracts and warehousing utilization rises, some companies may still face constraints in replenishment and inventory management.

  Comparison

  The overall environment is clearly more relaxed than during pandemic-era supply chain disruptions.

  Risks

  Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts could alter procurement timing, pull shipments forward, or delay orders.

• Inflation- and freight-rate-sensitive assets

  Macro-related

  Strengths

  Low congestion helps ease goods transportation cost-driven inflation pressure.

  Weaknesses

  China-to-U.S. West Coast ocean freight rates are up 16% YoY, indicating some marginal upward pressure in cost indicators remains.

  Comparison

  Both freight rates and delivery times are far below pandemic peaks, but they are not completely free of volatility.

  Risks

  A continued rise in ocean freight rates could feed back into import costs and end prices.

Key data

• GS Supply Chain Congestion Gauge2The gauge remained at 2 this week, overall close to pre-pandemic fluidity levels.
• Weekly Composite Index+7% w/wIt was -5% the previous week; the week-over-week increase did not change the low-congestion assessment.
• Average Bottleneck Score in Mayabout 2.0Significantly below the peak in December 2021 to January 2022.
• West Coast Container Ship Backlog1 shipUnchanged over the past week.
• East Coast Container Ship Backlog5 shipsRose from 4 ships to 5 ships.
• West Coast Class I Rail Intermodal Volume-2% YoYIt was +14% YoY last week, indicating a clear slowdown in growth.
• BNSF/UNP Intermodal VolumeBNSF +3.3% YoY；UNP -7% YoYBoth were below the previous week's +18.7% and +8.4%, respectively.
• UNP and BNSF Terminal DwellUNP 19.8 hours；BNSF 22.6 hoursUNP edged up slightly, while BNSF fell from 22.8 hours to 22.6 hours.
• Street Chassis Dwell Time20-foot 4.7 days；40/45-foot 5.8 days40/45-foot increased from 5.5 days the previous week.
• Terminal Chassis Dwell Time20/40-foot at 12.4/5.5 daysThe previous week was 12.0/5.5 days.
• China to U.S. West Coast Ocean Freight Rateabout $3.2k, +16% YoYThe previous week was about $3.18k, +14% YoY.
• San Pedro Bay Container Weighted Average Dwellabout 2.6 daysBasically flat in April versus March.
• Rail Container Dwell5.1 daysHigher in April than March's 4.4 days, but far below the roughly 16-day peak in 2022.
• Laden Import Containers at the Three Major West Coast Ports-1.0% YoYIn April, laden import containers at Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland combined declined year over year.
• China to U.S. Door-to-Door Transit Time47 daysThe October average was 47 days, close to the pre-pandemic average and far below the peak above 80 days.
• Trucking Employment4.2% below the pre-pandemic peakThe average year-over-year change over the past six months was -1.7%, with +0.3% month over month in March.
• LMI Transportation Capacity Index28.4Below March's 39.2 in April, indicating a more pronounced contraction in transportation capacity.
• LMI Warehousing Capacity Index45.5Below March in April, indicating a contraction in available warehousing capacity.
• LMI Warehousing Utilization Index64.4Above March's 59.8 in April, indicating faster expansion in utilization.
• PMI Supplier Delivery Times42.4Below 50 means delivery times are lengthening; +10.7% year over year in April.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report implies that transportation and logistics pressure is overall manageable, which is favorable for retailers, consumer goods companies, and easing inflation pressures, but the back-and-forth in some high-frequency indicators shows that supply chains may still be disrupted by tariffs, geopolitics, capacity changes, and demand timing. A low-congestion environment usually lowers supply chain costs and inventory risk, but marginal changes in ocean freight rates and port and rail efficiency can still affect margins and restocking cadence for transportation, rail, port, retail, and consumer goods companies.

Risks

• Changes in tariff policy could alter freight demand, shipping timing, and trade flows.
• Geopolitical conflicts could disrupt the normalization of global trade.
• Marginal increases in East Coast vessel backlog, ocean freight rates, and chassis dwell time may signal localized pressure.
• Weakening rail intermodal volume and speed could affect inland freight transportation efficiency.
• Contracting warehousing capacity and rising warehousing utilization could create inventory and replenishment bottlenecks.
• Some monthly indicators are lagged, so current readings may not fully reflect the latest changes.

What to watch

• Whether the GS weekly congestion gauge can stably enter the 1 range.
• Changes in the number of container ships waiting to berth on the West Coast and East Coast.
• BNSF and UNP intermodal volume, terminal dwell, and train speed.
• China-to-U.S. West Coast ocean freight rates and their year-over-year growth.
• Whether street and terminal chassis dwell times continue to rise.
• The direction of LMI transportation capacity, warehousing capacity, and warehousing utilization.
• Whether PMI supplier delivery times return above 50.
• The impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on freight timing.