China new energy vehicle market: China NEV weekly orders fell 22% week on week, while September penetration rose to about 70% in retail and 75% in wholesale.

Overview

This weekly chartbook tracks China’s new-energy-vehicle market through OEM order trends, retail and wholesale volumes, NEV and ICE dealer discounts, and upstream battery pricing. Goldman Sachs highlights a post-launch weekly order pullback alongside rising NEV penetration and mixed company-level order momentum.

Core views

Goldman Sachs reports that combined weekly orders for key NEV OEMs fell 22% week on week in 2026 Week 38, following the initial demand pulse from Xiaomi’s new launches in the preceding week. Orders were down 46% year on year, although the report calculates the decline at 25% year on year after excluding the effect of Nio’s ES8 launch in Week 38 of 2025. The report identifies Li Auto, XPeng and Leapmotor as the strongest weekly performers, with order growth of 123%, 50% and 15%, respectively, driven mainly by new-model launches including Li Auto’s i9 EV and XPeng’s G9L EV/EREV. On a year-to-date basis, HIMA, Nio and XPeng showed comparatively defensive order trends at +10%, +9% and -3% year on year. Industry data from CPCA show that passenger-vehicle retail volume totaled 515k units during September 1-13, down 23% year on year but up 4% month on month. Passenger-vehicle wholesale volume was 550k units, down 22% year on year and up 22% month on month. Within this market, NEV retail volume reached 362k units, down 10% year on year and up 16% month on month, while NEV wholesale volume reached 411k units, up 1% year on year and up 26% month on month. As a result, NEV retail and wholesale penetration rose to 70.3% and 74.7%, respectively, compared with 65.3% and 63.4% in August. The report also tracks retail pricing conditions. Average NEV dealer discount versus MSRP was 7.85% as of September 19, compared with 7.80% a week earlier and 7.96% on September 29, 2025. BYD’s average discount was unchanged week on week at 4.06%, versus 5.76% a year earlier. ICE dealer discounts also widened week on week, reaching 20.21% versus 19.98% on September 12 and 21.66% a year earlier. The brand-level discount measures are based on best-selling models. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to Rmb135.5k per ton, a 5.6% week-on-week decline. In contrast, prismatic LFP-cell and NCM-cell prices were stable week on week. The report therefore presents a near-term market picture of softer aggregate weekly orders after a launch-related comparison effect, continued gains in NEV market penetration, wider retail discounting, and lower lithium-carbonate prices.

Analysis framework

The report compiles weekly OEM order indicators, CPCA passenger-vehicle retail and wholesale data, dealer-discount measures against MSRP, and upstream battery-material and cell-price data. It compares current readings with week-on-week, year-on-year and month-on-month benchmarks, while attributing notable brand-order changes to specific new-model launches.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Weekly tracking of vehicle orders and volumes alongside dealer discounts and upstream battery prices.

  The report separates demand and volume indicators from retail pricing and input-cost indicators to describe current China NEV market conditions.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Li Auto

  Weekly orders rose 123% week on week, mainly supported by the i9 EV launch.

  Strengths

  Strongest weekly order growth among the brands highlighted.

  Comparison

  Outpaced XPeng at +50% and Leapmotor at +15% week on week.

• XPeng

  Weekly orders rose 50% week on week, mainly supported by G9L EV/EREV launches.

  Strengths

  Strong weekly order growth; year-to-date orders were relatively defensive at -3% year on year.

  Comparison

  Weekly growth trailed Li Auto but exceeded Leapmotor.

• Leapmotor

  Weekly orders rose 15% week on week.

  Strengths

  Recorded positive weekly order growth.

  Comparison

  Weekly growth was below that of Li Auto and XPeng.

• HIMA

  Tracked as a key NEV OEM.

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders rose 10% year on year, described as relatively defensive growth.

  Comparison

  Reported alongside Nio at +9% and XPeng at -3% year on year.

• Nio

  Tracked as a key NEV OEM and as a prior-year comparison factor.

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders rose 9% year on year, described as relatively defensive growth.

  Weaknesses

  The 2025 Week 38 ES8 launch affected the aggregate year-on-year order comparison.

  Comparison

  Reported alongside HIMA at +10% and XPeng at -3% year on year.

Key data

• Key NEV OEM weekly orders-22% wow; -46% yoyThe year-on-year change is -25% excluding the comparison effect from Nio’s ES8 launch in Week 38, 2025.
• Li Auto / XPeng / Leapmotor weekly orders+123% / +50% / +15% wowGoldman Sachs attributes the gains mainly to new-model launches.
• NEV retail / wholesale penetration70.3% / 74.7%September 1-13, versus 65.3% / 63.4% in August.
• NEV retail / wholesale volume362k / 411k unitsRetail was -10% yoy/+16% mom; wholesale was +1% yoy/+26% mom.
• Average dealer discount versus MSRPNEV 7.85%; ICE 20.21%As of September 19; both NEV and ICE discounts widened week on week.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonateRmb135.5k/ton-5.6% week on week; LFP and NCM prismatic-cell prices were stable week on week.

Impact & implications

The report indicates that the aggregate weekly order decline followed a prior launch-driven spike rather than uniformly weak brand momentum, as selected OEMs benefited from new products. Rising NEV penetration occurred alongside wider dealer discounts and declining lithium-carbonate prices, which are relevant indicators for the competitive and cost environment.

What to watch

• Li Auto’s planned September pre-sales for the new i6.
• NEV OEM monthly volume releases on October 1 and November 1.
• CPCA’s October 10-11 release of industry and model-level passenger-vehicle and NEV wholesale and retail data.
• BYD’s planned October unveiling of the Denza D9L.
• XPeng’s planned October unveiling of the Mona L05.