Week 21 NEV Orders Up 16% Sequentially, XPeng New Car Sparks Growth

Overview

This is the weekly data tracking report released by Goldman Sachs for Week 21 of 2026 in China, summarizing order situations for major NEV brands, industry sales data, terminal price discount changes, and upstream battery raw material price dynamics during the week. The core conclusion is: NEV orders rebounded in Week 21, driven mainly by new model launches, with XPeng GX being the standout.

Core views

Orders: In Week 21 of 2026 (May 18-24), combined orders of major NEV OEMs grew 16% sequentially and 19% year-over-year, showing a significant rebound. By brand, XPeng, Xiaomi, and Geely had the highest sequential growth rates at +433%, +92%, and +77%, respectively, benefiting mainly from new model launches. Specifically, within 12 hours of the XPeng GX launch, nearly 25,000 non-refundable orders were received, with BEV versions accounting for approximately 62% of total orders. Year-to-date orders: Nio/Harmony Intelligent Alliance/Tesla performance remained relatively stable, growing 43%/15%/-1% year-over-year respectively. Sales: Retail sales of passenger cars from May 1-17 reached 680,000 units (-23% YoY/+23% Seq), wholesale sales reached 660,000 units (-18% YoY/+2% Seq). NEV retail sales reached 400,000 units (-12% YoY/+18% Seq), wholesale sales reached 396,000 units (-9% YoY/+12% Seq), with NEV penetration rates at 58.9%/59.9%, varying from April's 62.8%/57.3%. Prices: Both NEV and ICE dealer discounts expanded sequentially. As of May 23, the average NEV dealer discount rate was 7.79% (July 16 was 7.61%), BYD was 5.14%; Average ICE discount rate was 19.67% (July 16 was 19.50%). Upstream Battery Prices: Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped to 181,000 CNY/ton, down 5.2% sequentially; prismatic LFP cells and prismatic NCM cells prices remained stable sequentially.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a high-frequency weekly data tracking method, analyzing from four dimensions: (1) Weekly order volume of major NEV brands, reflecting demand-side heat; (2) Key event calendar, indicating subsequent catalysts; (3) NEV/ICE dealer price discount tracking, observing competition landscape and price war trends; (4) Upstream battery and raw material price dynamics, tracking cost-side changes. This top-down combined framework tracking across various links of the industrial chain helps investors grasp industry prosperity changes and individual stock catalyst timing.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Chain Transmission

  Upstream-Midstream-Downstream Chain Transmission

  The report tracks downstream orders/sales, midstream terminal price discounts, and upstream battery raw material prices simultaneously. Through data linkage across all industry chain links, it judges industry prosperity and cost pressure transmission status.

• Cycle and Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Prosperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Judge whether the demand side shows rebound signals through weekly order sequential changes (+16%), and analyze prosperity drivers in conjunction with the new model launch schedule.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XPeng (XPeng)

  Beneficiary: GX new car launch drove substantial order growth

  Strengths

  Strong new car product power, secured 25k non-refundable orders in 12 hours

  Comparison

  Order growth rate +433% sequentially, highest this week

• Xiaomi (Xiaomi)

  Beneficiary: Orders up 92% sequentially

  Strengths

  Strong order growth

  Comparison

  Growth rate second only to XPeng

• Geely (Geely)

  Beneficiary: Orders up 77% sequentially

  Strengths

  Growth driven by new model launch

  Comparison

  Ranked third in growth rate

• Nio (NIO)

  Steady: Year-to-date orders up 43% YoY

  Strengths

  Year-to-date performance relatively steady

  Comparison

  YTD growth outperforms Tesla

• Tesla (Tesla)

  Under Pressure: Year-to-date orders -1% YoY

  Weaknesses

  YTD orders declined YoY

  Comparison

  YTD performance weaker than Nio and Harmony Intelligence

Key data

• Week 21 NEV Orders Sequential Change+16%Combined orders of major NEV OEMs
• Week 21 NEV Orders Year-over-Year Change+19%Combined orders of major NEV OEMs
• XPeng Orders Sequential Growth Rate+433%Driven by GX new car launch
• XPeng GX Non-refundable OrdersNearly 25kWithin 12 hours after launch
• BEV Share of GX OrdersApproximately 62%According to ThinkerCar data
• NEV Penetration Rate May 1-1758.9%/59.9%Retail/Wholesale Penetration Rate
• Lithium Carbonate Price181,000 CNY/tonBattery-grade, -5.2% Seq
• NEV Dealer Discount Rate7.79%As of May 23
• ICE Dealer Discount Rate19.67%As of May 23

Impact & implications

The report believes that new model launches were the main driver for the weekly order rebound, and XPeng GX's strong performance shows that product power significantly drives demand. Upstream lithium carbonate price decline helps alleviate battery cost pressure, but LFP and NCM cell prices remain stable, indicating that cost transmission takes time. Expanded dealer discounts reflect intense terminal competition; investors need to monitor the impact of price wars on profit margins.

Risks

• Expanded dealer discounts may compress automaker profit margins
• Fluctuation in lithium carbonate prices affects battery costs
• Sustainability of orders after new model launch remains to be observed

What to watch

• May 27: Nio ES9 Officially Launched; Seres M9 Facelift Launch
• May 28: Li Auto, XPeng Announce Q1 2026 Earnings
• June 1: NEV OEM Monthly Sales Release
• June 10-11: CPCA Releases Passenger Car/NEV Industry Wholesale/Retail Data