NEV Weekly Orders Up 49% WoW; HIMA’s New Model Launch Drives Growth

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ Week 17, 2026 China New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market Weekly Report. Its core conclusion is that NEV order volumes rebounded significantly—up 49% week-on-week and 17% year-on-year—driven by high-profile new model launches from emerging brands such as HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance). Concurrently, the intensity of price competition eased, with terminal dealer discounts narrowing for both NEVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. On the upstream side, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices remained stable, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cell prices edged higher.

Core views

Demand Side: New vehicle cycles driving strong order rebound. During Week 17, 2026 (April 20–26), aggregate orders from key NEV OEMs reached 156,900 units, up 49% week-on-week and 17% year-on-year. HIMA delivered the strongest performance, with orders surging 568% week-on-week—largely attributable to the密集 launch of new models including the Seres M6 (BEV and extended-range variants) and SAIC Z7T/Z7. NIO orders rose 20% week-on-week, while Tesla orders dipped 1% week-on-week. Year-to-date (YTD), NIO orders are up 29% year-on-year, reflecting relatively resilient growth, whereas Tesla and HIMA orders are down 9% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. Pricing Side: Terminal discounts narrowed, signaling marginal improvement in competitive dynamics. As of April 26, the industry-wide average NEV dealer discount rate stood at 7.20%, down from 7.31% the prior week; BYD’s average discount rate was 4.36%, slightly above the prior week’s 4.32%. For ICE vehicles, the average discount rate was 19.68%, also down from 19.84% the prior week. This broad-based narrowing suggests OEM pricing strategies are becoming more rational—or reflect restored pricing power amid improving demand. Supply & Cost Side: Upstream battery prices stabilized and edged higher. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices held steady at RMB 170,500/ton, unchanged week-on-week. However, LFP prismatic cell prices rose 4.5% week-on-week to RMB 0.35/Wh, while nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) cell prices remained flat at RMB 0.47/Wh. Rising cell prices may signal increased downstream production planning or the onset of cost pass-through mechanisms.

Analysis framework

The report employs a high-frequency data tracking methodology, cross-validating industry health across three dimensions: weekly order volume, terminal dealer discount rates, and upstream raw material prices. First, third-party data sources (e.g., ThinkerCar) are used to track weekly order changes for key brands, identifying short-term demand fluctuations and their drivers (e.g., new model launches). Second, actual transaction-level dealer discounts are monitored via Autohome data to assess the intensity of price competition. Third, battery material and cell pricing data from ICC Sino are tracked to evaluate cost pressures and profit distribution across the supply chain. This three-dimensional ‘demand–price–cost’ framework enables early detection of micro-level inflection points ahead of official monthly macroeconomic data releases.

Methodology notes

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Volume-price decomposition

  The report decomposes industry performance into two dimensions: 'volume' (order volume) and 'price' (discount rate). By analyzing whether volume growth coincides with price stabilization, it assesses the quality of growth. For example, this week’s 'volume up, price stable' (i.e., narrowing discounts) is generally viewed as a healthier recovery signal than 'price cuts driving volume'.

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkUpstream–midstream–downstream transmission along the value chain

  Upstream–midstream–downstream transmission along the value chain

  The report simultaneously tracks downstream vehicle orders, midstream battery/cell prices, and upstream lithium carbonate prices. This end-to-end perspective helps determine whether cost pressures are being transmitted and whether downstream demand recovery is propagating upstream (e.g., rising LFP cell prices may reflect increased production planning).

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  New model launches (e.g., Seres M6) generated substantial order growth—up 568% week-on-week

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date orders remain down 15% year-on-year

  Comparison

  Growth far exceeds that of NIO and Tesla

  Risks

  Order sustainability post-new model hype

• NIO (Nio)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Orders up 20% week-on-week; up 29% year-to-date—demonstrating stability

  Comparison

  Shows comparatively strong defensive growth among major NEV startups

• Tesla (Tesla)

  Neutral

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders down only 9%—relatively stable

  Weaknesses

  Orders down 1% week-on-week in Week 17

  Comparison

  Growth lags behind HIMA and NIO

  Risks

  Lack of new model catalysts, resulting in sluggish growth

• BYD (BYD)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Dealer discount rate at just 4.36%, well below industry average—indicating strong brand pricing power

  Comparison

  Maintains the most stable pricing structure

Key data

• Week 17 Aggregate NEV Order Growth (WoW)+49%Driven by new vehicle launches; marked rebound
• Week 17 Aggregate NEV Order Growth (YoY)+17%Low base in same period last year
• HIMA Order Growth (WoW)+568%Driven by new model launches including Seres M6
• Industry-wide Average NEV Dealer Discount Rate7.20%Down from 7.31% the prior week
• Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate PriceRMB 170,500/tonUnchanged week-on-week
• Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Cell Price Change (WoW)+4.5%Rising to RMB 0.35/Wh

Impact & implications

The report attributes the robust Week 17 order rebound primarily to new product cycles—especially the ramp-up of HIMA-branded models—reflecting strong consumer interest in intelligent new vehicles. The concurrent narrowing of terminal discounts is a positive signal, suggesting the most intense phase of price warfare may be ending and OEM profitability could improve marginally. The rise in LFP cell prices warrants monitoring for persistence; sustained increases could squeeze battery makers’ margins or feed through to downstream OEMs. Overall, near-term industry sentiment has improved due to the new model effect, but follow-up weeks’ order trends will be critical to confirm whether this represents a structural turnaround.

What to watch

• Market reaction to BYD’s Tai 7 EV launch on April 28 and NIO’s ONVO L80 pre-orders opening
• Monthly sales data releases from major NEV OEMs on May 1
• Post-launch order performance following the mid-May release of the Li Auto L9 facelift and NIO’s ONVO L80
• Complete April wholesale/retail data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on May 10–11