XPeng Mona L03 drove a notable rebound in NEV orders in week 29
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XPeng Mona L03 drove a notable rebound in NEV orders in week 29
Goldman Sachs' weekly charts show that in week 29 of 2026, orders for key NEV makers rose 31% week over week and 5% year over year, with XPeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi showing the strongest sequential performance, while passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales remained negative year over year.
- Aggregate weekly orders for key NEV makers rose 31% week over week and 5% year over year, mainly driven by launches of new and refreshed models.
- XPeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi rose 737%, 131%, and 32% week over week, respectively. After the XPeng Mona L03 launch, week 29 recorded 59.2k non-refundable orders, 70% of which came from the BEV version.
- From July 1 to 12, passenger vehicle retail sales were 443k units, down 15% year over year and 1% month over month, with the year-over-year decline narrowing versus 20% in 1H26.
- NEV retail sales were 280k units, down 8% year over year and 3% month over month; NEV penetration in retail and wholesale was 63.1% and 69.1%, respectively.
- As of July 18, the average dealer discount for NEVs was 6.94%, narrowing from 7.29% the prior week; battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were stable at Rmb153k/ton.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Goldman Sachs' weekly chartbook on China's NEV market, covering week 29 of 2026 orders, passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales, dealer discounts, upstream battery material prices, and key events in the coming weeks. The core conclusion is that new model launches drove a short-term improvement in NEV orders, but overall passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales were still down year over year, so the strength of the industry's recovery still needs to be verified through subsequent weekly orders and monthly sales.
Core views
The improvement in NEV orders in week 29 mainly came from the launch of XPeng Mona L03 and the refreshed Li Auto L6; XPeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi led in week-over-week growth. At the industry level, the year-over-year decline in passenger vehicle retail sales in early July narrowed from the first half, while NEV penetration remained high. On pricing, average dealer discounts for both NEVs and ICE vehicles narrowed week over week, indicating marginal easing in end-market pricing pressure; upstream prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate, prismatic LFP cells, and prismatic NCM cells were stable week over week.
Analysis framework
The report uses a combination of weekly order tracking, CPCA retail and wholesale data, dealer discount tracking, upstream battery material price monitoring, and an event calendar to assess short-term changes in China's NEV demand, pricing competition, and supply chain costs.
Methodology notes
Use weekly orders of key automakers and passenger vehicle retail and wholesale data to observe marginal changes in demand.
The report compares automaker orders in week 29 on both a week-over-week and year-over-year basis, and combines this with CPCA passenger vehicle and NEV retail and wholesale data from July 1 to 12 to evaluate industry demand trends.
Use changes in dealer discounts relative to MSRP to measure the intensity of end-market price competition.
The report separately tracks average dealer discounts for NEVs and ICE vehicles, and lists discount changes for brands such as BYD to assess whether price war pressure is easing at the margin.
Track battery-grade lithium carbonate and prismatic cell prices to observe changes in upstream costs.
The report shows battery-grade lithium carbonate prices holding at Rmb153k/ton, while prices of prismatic LFP and NCM cells were stable week over week.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- XPengCore beneficiary brand
- Strengths
- Orders increased significantly after the Mona L03 launch, rising 737% week over week in week 29, with 59.2k non-refundable orders recorded.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide validation on conversion from orders to deliveries and earnings.
- Comparison
- Week 29 week-over-week growth was higher than Li Auto and Xiaomi.
- Risks
- The sustainability of new model momentum, delivery pace, and pricing competition still need to be monitored.
- Li AutoBenefiting from refreshed model launch
- Strengths
- The refreshed Li Auto L6 launched on July 16, driving a 131% week-over-week increase in orders in week 29.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not disclose the specific order mix or margin impact.
- Comparison
- Week-over-week growth was lower than XPeng but higher than Xiaomi.
- Risks
- Demand sustainability for the refreshed model and intensifying competition in the segment.
- XiaomiBrand with relatively fast order growth
- Strengths
- Orders rose 32% week over week in week 29, ranking among the top-growing key brands.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide detailed constraints on orders and deliveries.
- Comparison
- Week-over-week growth lagged XPeng and Li Auto, but still clearly outperformed most brands.
- Risks
- Capacity, deliveries, and the pace of new products may affect follow-through.
- BYDIndustry leader and discount tracking target
- Strengths
- The report separately tracks BYD dealer discounts, with the average discount at 3.95% as of July 18, narrowing from 4.10% the previous week.
- Weaknesses
- MTD orders in July were -17% year over year, and 2026YTD orders were -37% year over year.
- Comparison
- Its discount rate was below the NEV industry average of 6.94%.
- Risks
- Sales growth pressure and pricing competition may still weigh on profitability.
- NioBrand with relatively strong YTD order defensiveness
- Strengths
- 2026YTD orders grew 96% year over year, showing relatively defensive performance among the brands listed in the report.
- Weaknesses
- Its week 29 performance lacked the sequential elasticity seen in XPeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi.
- Comparison
- YTD year-over-year growth was higher than HIMA and XPeng.
- Risks
- Order sustainability after a high base and end-market competition.
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate and prismatic cellsSupply chain cost variables for NEVs
- Strengths
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate held at Rmb153k/ton, while prices of LFP and NCM prismatic cells were stable week over week.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not provide future price forecasts.
- Comparison
- Upstream price changes this week were smaller than fluctuations in vehicle orders.
- Risks
- A renewed rise in raw material prices could compress profits for automakers and battery makers.
Key data
- Aggregate orders of key NEV makers in week 29+31% wow / +5% yoyMainly driven by the launch of XPeng Mona L03 and the refreshed Li Auto L6.
- XPeng orders in week 29, week over week+737% wowAfter the Mona L03 launch, week 29 recorded 59.2k non-refundable orders, of which 70% came from the BEV version.
- Li Auto orders in week 29, week over week+131% wowDriven by the July 16 launch of the refreshed Li Auto L6.
- Xiaomi orders in week 29, week over week+32% wowAmong the leading brands, it was one of the top performers in week-over-week growth.
- Passenger vehicle retail sales from July 1 to 12443k units, -15% yoy / -1% momThe year-over-year decline narrowed from -20% in 1H26.
- Passenger vehicle wholesale sales from July 1 to 12379k units, -26% yoy / -17% momWholesale remained under pressure both year over year and month over month.
- NEV retail sales from July 1 to 12280k units, -8% yoy / -3% momNEV retail outperformed the broader passenger vehicle market, but was still down year over year.
- NEV penetration rateRetail 63.1%, wholesale 69.1%Above June's 62.8% and 63.4%.
- Average dealer discount for NEVs6.94%As of July 18, 2026, below 7.29% on July 11 and 8.13% on July 28, 2025.
- Average dealer discount for ICE vehicles19.55%As of July 18, 2026, below 20.11% on July 11 and 21.37% on July 28, 2025.
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb153k/吨，+0.0% wowPrices of prismatic LFP and NCM cells were likewise stable week over week.
Impact & implications
In the short term, new model launches are clearly boosting NEV orders, which could benefit automakers with strong new product cycles and hit models; meanwhile, narrowing dealer discounts and stable battery material prices help ease margin pressure. However, passenger vehicle retail sales, wholesale sales, and NEV sales are still negative year over year, indicating that industry demand has not fully recovered, and investment views still need to track whether follow-up order conversion, monthly deliveries, and pricing competition worsen again.
Risks
- Passenger vehicle retail and wholesale sales remain negative year over year, and the demand recovery may be fragile.
- The surge in new model orders may partly reflect concentrated initial release after launch, and its sustainability needs verification.
- Order growth does not equal delivery growth or margin improvement; conversion rate, capacity, and delivery pace still need to be tracked.
- If pricing competition intensifies again, it may offset the earnings elasticity brought by improving orders.
- Battery material prices are currently stable, but upstream price volatility may still affect costs and gross margins.
What to watch
- 2026-07-21: Weekly orders for newly launched models.
- 2026-07-23: Lynk 07 GT launch.
- 2026-07-28: Launch of the five-seat Zeekr 9X.
- 2026-07-30: Xiaomi SkyNomad technology event.
- 2026-08-01: Monthly sales releases by NEV makers.
- 2026-08-08: Avatr 07 L launch.
- 2026-08-10 to 11: CPCA releases passenger vehicle and NEV industry and model-level wholesale and retail data.