China NEV orders in Week 26 were disrupted by a high base, while penetration rose to about 64%

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' weekly chartbook on China's NEV market, covering order changes in Week 26 of 2026, CPCA passenger vehicle and NEV retail/wholesale trends, upcoming industry events, dealer-end discounts, and upstream battery material prices. The report's core purpose is not to provide stock investment ratings, but to use high-frequency data to characterize China's NEV demand, price competition, and battery cost environment.

Core views

Industry data in Week 26 showed divergence: the sharp apparent YoY decline in orders was mainly due to the extremely high base created by Xiaomi's YU7 launch last year, and excluding Xiaomi, orders for key NEV makers still grew 31% YoY. However, the industry pulled back 17% WoW from the initial boost following major new model launches in Week 25. On the demand side, NEV penetration remained high, reaching 63.8% at retail and 67.3% at wholesale. On pricing, dealer discounts for both NEVs and fuel vehicles narrowed slightly from the previous week, indicating marginal easing in end-market pricing pressure. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell 9.6% WoW, while LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency tracking framework that places weekly orders of key NEV makers, monthly and year-to-date orders, CPCA retail/wholesale data, dealer discounts, and battery material prices into a single chartbook for comparison. The analysis focuses on YoY, WoW, and MoM changes, penetration rates, relative brand performance, and the impact of new model launches on order surges.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency order trackingWeekly orders of key NEV makers

  Use weekly orders to measure short-term demand momentum

  The report compares YoY and WoW changes in orders for key NEV makers in Week 26 of 2026, and separately notes that Xiaomi's high base caused by the YU7 launch on June 26, 2025 leads to a large difference between YoY conclusions including and excluding Xiaomi.

• Industry sales trackingCPCA retail and wholesale data

  Use passenger vehicle and NEV retail/wholesale data to measure industry demand and penetration

  The report cites CPCA data for June 1 to 21, disclosing retail volume, wholesale volume, YoY, MoM, and NEV retail/wholesale penetration rates for passenger vehicles and NEVs.

• Price trackingDealer discounts relative to MSRP

  Use end-market discounts to observe pricing competition intensity

  The report tracks changes in dealer discounts relative to manufacturers' suggested retail prices for NEVs, BYD, and fuel vehicles, and notes that brand-level discounts are based on best-selling models.

• Cost trackingBattery and battery material prices

  Use battery-grade lithium carbonate, LFP, and NCM prismatic cell prices to observe the upstream cost environment

  The report tracks weekly changes in battery-grade lithium carbonate and prismatic cell prices. As of June 29, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell 9.6% WoW, while LFP and NCM cell prices were flat WoW.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China NEV OEMs

  Core coverage objects of the report, with demand measured using orders of key brands and industry penetration rates

  Strengths

  NEV retail and wholesale penetration remained high; weekly orders rose 31% YoY excluding Xiaomi.

  Weaknesses

  Including Xiaomi, overall YoY fell 69%, and Week 26 retreated 17% from the post-launch surge in Week 25.

  Comparison

  Relative to fuel vehicles, NEV penetration continues to rise; however, end-market discounts still indicate ongoing industry competition.

  Risks

  High base effects, order volatility, slower-than-expected ramp-up of new models, and renewed intensification of price competition.

• Li Auto

  One of the key NEV brands

  Strengths

  Week 26 orders rose 67% WoW, driven by factors such as the L8 facelift.

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date order growth remains negative; the report table shows 2026 YTD at -25%.

  Comparison

  Week 26 WoW performance was better than that of most tracked brands.

  Risks

  The boost from facelifted models may be a one-off surge; sustainability of subsequent new models such as the L6 facelift still needs to be observed.

• Geely (Galaxy & Zeekr)

  One of the key NEV brands

  Strengths

  Week 26 orders rose 17% WoW, ranking near the top among tracked brands.

  Weaknesses

  The historical YoY series disclosed in the report is incomplete, so cross-period comparisons require caution.

  Comparison

  WoW growth was lower than Li Auto but higher than Leapmotor.

  Risks

  New model popularity, brand mix changes, and market competition may affect follow-through in future orders.

• Leapmotor

  One of the key NEV brands

  Strengths

  Week 26 orders rose 6% WoW, supported by factors such as the D99 launch.

  Weaknesses

  WoW growth was lower than Li Auto and Geely.

  Comparison

  It was still among the brands with WoW order growth in Week 26.

  Risks

  Contributions from new models and delivery execution still need to be validated by subsequent sales data.

• Nio, HIMA, Tesla

  A group of brands that the report says have relatively defensive year-to-date order performance

  Strengths

  Year-to-date order growth rates were Nio +98%, HIMA +31%, and Tesla +2%, respectively.

  Weaknesses

  Single-week orders may still be affected by model cadence and industry volatility.

  Comparison

  They outperform some brands with negative YoY growth on a year-to-date basis.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, changes in product cycles, and risks to monthly sales conversion.

• Power batteries and battery materials

  Objects for observing upstream cost and pricing conditions

  Strengths

  LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices were stable WoW, and the decline in battery-grade lithium carbonate may ease cost pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Lithium carbonate prices are highly volatile on a weekly basis, which may affect profit distribution across the value chain.

  Comparison

  Material-side prices are changing faster than cell-side prices, with cell quotes stable this week.

  Risks

  Raw material price rebounds, inventory cycle changes, and downstream demand fluctuations.

Key data

• Week 26 orders of key NEV makersYoY -69%; YoY +31% excluding Xiaomi; WoW -17%Xiaomi's YU7 launch on June 26, 2025 created a high base, significantly affecting the overall YoY comparison.
• Leading brands in WoW performanceLi Auto +67%; Geely +17%; Leapmotor +6%Growth was mainly driven by launches of new and facelifted models, such as the facelifted Li Auto L8 and Leapmotor D99.
• Relatively defensive brands in year-to-date ordersNio +98%; HIMA +31%; Tesla +2%The report states that these brands showed relatively more defensive year-to-date order performance.
• Passenger vehicle retail sales from June 1 to 21913k units, YoY -23%, MoM +7%Data from CPCA weekly trends.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale sales from June 1 to 21999k units, YoY -14%, MoM +9%Data from CPCA weekly trends.
• NEV retail sales from June 1 to 21583k units, YoY -10%, MoM +11%NEV retail penetration was 63.8%.
• NEV wholesale sales from June 1 to 21673k units, YoY +8%, MoM +17%NEV wholesale penetration was 67.3%.
• NEV penetration rateRetail 63.8%; wholesale 67.3%The corresponding May levels were 63.0% and 61.1%.
• NEV dealer discount7.43%As of June 27, 2026, this narrowed versus 7.48% on June 20 and 7.95% on July 7, 2025.
• BYD dealer discount4.10%As of June 27, 2026, this narrowed versus 4.27% on June 20 and 5.56% on July 7, 2025.
• Fuel vehicle dealer discount19.61%As of June 27, 2026, this was broadly flat versus 19.62% on June 20 and below 22.12% on July 7, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb151.5k/ton, WoW -9.6%As of June 29, 2026.
• Prismatic cell pricesLFP Rmb0.35/Wh; NCM Rmb0.47/WhPrices of both types of prismatic cells were flat WoW.

Impact & implications

The report shows that short-term demand in China's NEV industry remains significantly affected by the timing of new model launches and last year's high base, so single-week YoY data need to be interpreted after excluding special brand events. High penetration indicates that NEVs still hold strong structural share in both retail and wholesale channels, but the WoW pullback suggests that order surges driven by new model launches may be short-lived. Narrowing end-market discounts helps ease market concerns about further deterioration in the price war; the decline in battery-grade lithium carbonate may improve the cost environment for batteries and vehicle makers, but it also reflects continued volatility in upstream material prices.

Risks

• Week 26 YoY data were significantly distorted by the high base from Xiaomi's 2025 YU7 launch, resulting in a large gap between conclusions including and excluding Xiaomi.
• The order surge following major new model launches in Week 25 pulled back in Week 26, so short-term orders may not represent a stable trend.
• CPCA data cover only the partial period from June 1 to 21, and full-month figures still need to await subsequent release.
• Dealer discounts are tracked based on best-selling models and may not fully represent each brand's full model mix.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell sharply on a weekly basis, and upstream material price volatility may affect judgments on cost and profit.
• The report does not provide stock ratings, target prices, or earnings forecasts, and therefore should not be directly regarded as stock investment advice.

What to watch

• July 1, 2026: Monthly sales releases from NEV OEMs.
• July 2, 2026: XPeng launches MONA L03.
• July 2, 2026: BYD launches Seal 08.
• July 10-11, 2026: CPCA releases passenger vehicle/NEV industry and model-level wholesale and retail data.
• July 2026: WAIC to be held in Shanghai.
• July 2026: Li Auto launches the L6 facelift.
• August 1, 2026: Monthly sales releases from NEV OEMs.