China NEV weekly orders rose 16% week on week on model launches, while August retail and wholesale penetration reached about 66% and 64%.

Overview

This weekly chartbook tracks China’s passenger-vehicle and NEV demand, brand order trends, dealer discounts and battery-material pricing. Goldman Sachs highlights a Week 36 order recovery driven by recent model launches, alongside high August NEV penetration and lower lithium carbonate prices.

Core views

Goldman Sachs reports that combined weekly orders for key NEV OEMs rose 16% week on week in 2026 Week 36 (August 31 to September 6), although they were still down 26% year on year. The institution attributes the weekly improvement mainly to new and facelift model launches. Li Auto, BYD and Nio posted the strongest order gains, at 136%, 27% and 10% week on week, respectively. The cited catalysts were Li Auto’s MEGA facelift and BYD’s Sealion 08 EV/DM launch, both on September 2. On a year-to-date basis, Nio, HIMA and XPeng showed comparatively defensive order trends, at 34%, 16% and -3% year on year, respectively. August industry data from CPCA showed weaker overall passenger-vehicle volumes year on year but stronger NEV wholesale performance. Passenger-vehicle retail volume was 1.626 million units, down 19% year on year and up 11% month on month, while wholesale volume was 2.369 million units, down 5% year on year and up 5% month on month. NEV retail volume was 1.069 million units, down 4% year on year and up 12% month on month; NEV wholesale volume was 1.506 million units, up 16% year on year and up 4% month on month. NEV retail penetration reached 65.7% and wholesale penetration 63.6%, compared with 64.4% and 65.3% in July, respectively. Pricing data indicated that both NEV and internal-combustion-engine dealer discounts widened week on week. Average NEV dealer discount versus MSRP was 7.73% as of September 5, versus 7.72% on August 29 and 8.16% on September 1, 2025. BYD’s average discount was unchanged week on week at 3.95%, compared with 6.21% a year earlier. Average ICE dealer discount was 19.75%, versus 19.69% a week earlier and 21.32% a year earlier. The brand-level discount measure is based on best-selling models. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to Rmb151.0k per ton, down 4.1% week on week. In contrast, LFP and NCM prismatic-cell prices were stable week on week. The report’s upcoming-event calendar focuses on product launches by Xiaomi, Geely, Li Auto and XPeng, followed by OEM monthly volume releases and CPCA industry and model-level wholesale and retail data.

Analysis framework

The chartbook combines weekly brand-order tracking with CPCA passenger-vehicle retail and wholesale data, dealer-discount comparisons against MSRP, and upstream battery-material price monitoring. It links short-term changes in brand orders to identified model launches and lists upcoming releases and data publications as near-term industry catalysts.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Weekly order, retail, wholesale, penetration, dealer-discount and battery-price tracking

  The report monitors demand through orders and sales volumes, competitive pricing through dealer discounts, and upstream conditions through lithium and cell prices to describe current NEV industry conditions.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Linking upstream battery-material prices with NEV market tracking

  Lithium carbonate and battery-cell pricing are tracked alongside vehicle demand and retail pricing as relevant upstream indicators for the NEV value chain.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Li Auto

  Reported among the strongest Week 36 order growers, supported by the MEGA facelift launch.

  Strengths

  +136% week-on-week order growth.

  Comparison

  Its weekly order growth exceeded the reported gains for BYD and Nio.

• BYD

  Reported among the strongest Week 36 order growers, linked to the Sealion 08 EV/DM launch.

  Strengths

  +27% week-on-week order growth; average dealer discount was 3.95% as of September 5.

  Comparison

  Its weekly order growth was below Li Auto’s but above Nio’s reported growth.

• Nio

  Reported as a strong Week 36 order grower and relatively defensive in year-to-date orders.

  Strengths

  +10% week-on-week order growth and +34% year-to-date order growth year on year.

  Comparison

  Nio’s year-to-date growth exceeded HIMA’s +16% and XPeng’s -3%.

Key data

• Combined key-NEV-OEM weekly orders+16% wow, -26% yoy2026 Week 36; Goldman Sachs attributes the week-on-week increase to new and facelift model launches.
• Li Auto / BYD / Nio weekly order growth+136% / +27% / +10% wowThe strongest reported weekly gains among key brands.
• August PV retail volume1,626k units-19% yoy and +11% mom, per CPCA.
• August PV wholesale volume2,369k units-5% yoy and +5% mom, per CPCA.
• August NEV retail volume1,069k units-4% yoy and +12% mom; penetration was 65.7%.
• August NEV wholesale volume1,506k units+16% yoy and +4% mom; penetration was 63.6%.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonateRmb151.0k/ton-4.1% wow; LFP and NCM prismatic-cell prices were stable week on week.

Impact & implications

The report identifies model launches as the immediate driver of the Week 36 order rebound, while August data show NEV wholesale growth and persistently high NEV penetration despite year-on-year declines in broader passenger-vehicle retail and wholesale volumes. It also records slightly wider dealer discounts and lower lithium carbonate prices as relevant pricing and cost developments.

What to watch

• Xiaomi’s N70/N90 launch on September 7 and Geely’s Galaxy TT launch on September 10.
• CPCA’s passenger-vehicle and NEV wholesale and retail data release on September 10-11.
• Li Auto’s i9 launch in mid-September and i6 facelift pre-sales at end-September.
• XPeng’s G9L launch in September.
• NEV OEM monthly volume releases on October 1 and CPCA industry and model data on October 10-11.