China NEV orders fell 10% in Week 16, with lack of new models weighing on demand

Overview

This report tracks weekly orders in China's passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle markets, CPCA retail and wholesale data, key events, dealer end-market discounts, and upstream battery material prices. The core conclusion is that NEV orders were weak in Week 16 of 2026, declining both week over week and year over year, mainly due to the lack of new models; meanwhile, pricing trends diverged, with NEV discounts narrowing week over week while fuel vehicle discounts widened.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes that in Week 16, NEV demand lacked support from new models, putting pressure on aggregate orders for major automakers, though resilience varied meaningfully across brands. Nio, Li Auto, and BYD were the most defensive on a week-over-week basis; looking at orders year to date, Nio, Tesla, and XPeng have shown relatively better resilience. On end-market pricing, narrowing NEV discounts help ease price competition pressure, while widening fuel vehicle discounts show that traditional ICE vehicles still face stronger promotional pressure. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose 9.6% week over week, but cell prices remained stable, indicating that raw material volatility has not yet fully passed through to the battery cell segment.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency tracking framework, combining ThinkerCar order data, CPCA retail/wholesale data, Autohome dealer discount data, and ICC Sino battery material price data to assess short-term conditions in China's NEV industry across five dimensions: brand orders, industry sales, event catalysts, end-market discounts, and upstream costs.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingWeekly order tracking

  Weekly orders for major new energy vehicle brands

  By tracking order changes for major brands such as BYD, HIMA, Li Auto, Nio, Tesla, Xiaomi, and XPeng, the report observes short-term demand momentum, relative brand resilience, and the impact of new model cycles.

• Industry sales trackingCPCA data

  Retail, wholesale, and NEV penetration

  CPCA passenger vehicle and NEV retail/wholesale data are used to assess overall industry demand, channel shipments, and changes in NEV penetration.

• Price competition analysisDealer discount tracking

  End-market discounts relative to MSRP

  Changes in dealer discounts for NEVs and fuel vehicles are used to gauge the intensity of end-market price competition; narrowing discounts usually imply easing price pressure, while widening discounts usually imply stronger promotional efforts.

• Cost chain trackingBattery and raw material price tracking

  Lithium carbonate and battery cell prices

  The report tracks prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate, LFP prismatic cells, and NCM prismatic cells to assess upstream cost fluctuations and their transmission to the battery segment.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China NEV OEM equities

  Directly related

  Strengths

  NEV penetration has rebounded, and some brands such as Nio, Li Auto, and BYD have shown relatively defensive order performance; new model launches and the Beijing Auto Show may provide further catalysts.

  Weaknesses

  Aggregate orders for major automakers in Week 16 declined both week over week and year over year, showing that demand is sensitive to the new model cycle.

  Comparison

  Nio, Li Auto, and BYD performed better than other major brands on a week-over-week basis; year to date, Nio, Tesla, and XPeng have been relatively more defensive.

  Risks

  Insufficient new models, renewed intensification of price competition, and slower-than-expected order recovery.

• Fuel vehicles and traditional auto brands

  Competitive and substitution relationship

  Strengths

  Fuel vehicle discounts have narrowed versus the same period last year, still providing some support for end-market sales.

  Weaknesses

  Discounts widened month over month to 19.84%, indicating promotional pressure remains higher than for NEVs.

  Comparison

  The average NEV discount is 7.31%, significantly lower than the 19.84% for fuel vehicles.

  Risks

  Further increases in NEV penetration could pressure demand and pricing power for fuel vehicles.

• Battery materials and lithium value chain

  Upstream cost-related

  Strengths

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose 9.6% week over week, which may improve momentum in upstream material pricing.

  Weaknesses

  Cell prices were flat week over week, indicating that material price increases may not be fully passed through downstream.

  Comparison

  Lithium carbonate price volatility is significantly greater than that of LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices.

  Risks

  Raw material price volatility, weak downstream demand, and blocked cost pass-through.

Key data

• Total orders for major NEV automakers in Week 16-10% wow / -43% yoyThe report attributes this to a lack of new models.
• Week 16 order changes for Nio/Li Auto/BYD-3% / -6% / -7% wowThe report describes these three as the most defensive brands.
• Passenger vehicle retail sales from April 1 to 12377k units, -20% yoy / -12% momSource: CPCA.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale sales from April 1 to 12374k units, -29% yoy / -21% momSource: CPCA.
• NEV retail sales from April 1 to 12224k units, -11% yoy / +7% momNEV retail performance was better than the overall passenger vehicle market on a month-over-month basis.
• NEV wholesale sales from April 1 to 12199k units, -29% yoy / -15% momNEV wholesale sales declined both year over year and month over month.
• NEV retail/wholesale penetration59.5% / 53.2%From April 1 to 12, rebounding from 47.3% / 48.6% in March.
• Average dealer discount for NEVs7.31% as of Apr 19Compared with 7.52% on April 11 and 7.11% on April 21, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for BYD4.32% as of Apr 19Compared with 4.32% on April 11 and 3.03% on April 21, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for fuel vehicles19.84% as of Apr 19Compared with 19.61% on April 11 and 22.27% on April 21, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb170.5k/吨, +9.6% wowAs of April 20; source: ICC Sino.
• LFP/NCM prismatic cell pricesRmb0.34/Wh / Rmb0.47/Wh, 0.0% wowCell prices remained stable week over week.

Impact & implications

In the short term, the decline in weekly orders indicates that China's NEV demand still depends on new model cycles and event catalysts, with the Beijing Auto Show and new model launches from late April to May likely to be key points to watch for order recovery. On pricing, narrower NEV discounts are supportive for margin expectations, but wider fuel vehicle discounts show that competition in the traditional auto market remains intense. Upstream lithium carbonate price increases may add pressure to battery costs, but stable cell prices suggest that cost pass-through still needs to be monitored.

Risks

• The lack of new models may keep weekly orders under pressure.
• NEV price competition may intensify again, affecting automaker margins.
• Widening fuel vehicle discounts may weigh on the profitability of traditional automakers.
• If rising lithium carbonate prices are passed through to battery cells and vehicles, cost pressure may increase.
• The impact of the Beijing Auto Show and subsequent new model launches may fall short of expectations.
• High-frequency order data and table recognition contain noise and need to be validated against subsequent official sales data.

What to watch

• 2026 Week 17: BYD Sealion 05 EV, Sealion 05 DM launches, Nio ONVO L90 facelift, Li Auto L9 Livis, and the 2026 Beijing Auto Show.
• 2026 Week 18: Nio ONVO L80 launch and the release of monthly sales data by NEV automakers on May 1.
• 2026 Week 19: CPCA will release passenger vehicle/NEV industry and model-level wholesale and retail data.
• 2026 Week 20-22: Nio ES9 is expected to launch by the end of May.
• Whether NEV dealer discounts continue to narrow and whether fuel vehicle discounts continue to widen.
• Whether the rise in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices is passed through to LFP and NCM cell prices.