China new energy vehicle orders rose 31% week over week in Week 29, with XPeng Mona L03 demand as the main driver

Overview

This report tracks China’s new energy vehicle and passenger car market performance in Week 29 of 2026, focusing on weekly brand orders, upcoming events, dealer discounts at the retail end, and upstream battery prices. The key conclusion is that new energy vehicle orders improved meaningfully week over week, mainly driven by the launch of the XPeng Mona L03 and the facelifted Li Auto L6; passenger vehicle retail sales remained negative year over year, but the decline narrowed.

Core views

Total orders for major new energy vehicle makers rose 31% week over week and 5% year over year in Week 29, indicating that the new model cycle can still drive orders significantly in the short term. XPeng saw the clearest boost from the Mona L03 launch, with weekly non-refundable orders reaching 59.2k units; Li Auto, supported by the July 16 launch of the facelifted L6, saw orders rise 131% week over week; Xiaomi orders increased 32% week over week. At the industry level, passenger vehicle retail sales from July 1 to 12 fell 15% year over year, and new energy vehicle retail sales fell 8% year over year, but NEV penetration remained at a high level. On pricing, dealer discounts for both new energy vehicles and ICE vehicles narrowed week over week, while battery materials and cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly chartbook format, combining automaker orders, CPCA passenger vehicle retail and wholesale data, dealer discounts, and battery material prices to assess short-term demand, end-market price competition, and the upstream cost environment.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingWeekly order tracking

  Use weekly orders of key brands to observe new model launches and demand changes.

  The report compares order performance in Week 29 of 2026 versus the prior week and the same period last year, and further presents monthly, year-to-date, and brand-level order changes.

• Channel pricing trackingDealer discount tracking

  Use dealer discounts relative to MSRP to measure end-market pricing pressure.

  The report separately tracks average dealer discounts for new energy vehicles and ICE vehicles, and compares them with the previous week and the same period last year.

• Industry chain cost trackingBattery and battery material price monitoring

  Use lithium carbonate and battery cell prices to assess upstream cost changes.

  The report tracks weekly changes in prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate, prismatic LFP cells, and prismatic NCM cells.

• Goldman Sachs disclosure methodologyGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock characteristics from the perspectives of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

  The disclosure section states that GS Factor Profile calculates percentiles using metrics such as forward sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation multiples, but the main body of this weekly chartbook does not provide full factor scores for any single company.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• XPeng

  Benefiting from short-term order elasticity driven by the launch of the Mona L03.

  Strengths

  Week 29 orders rose 737% week over week, and non-refundable orders reached 59.2k units after launch, with the BEV version accounting for 70%.

  Weaknesses

  Year-to-date orders are only around -2% to +2% year over year, so a sustained recovery still needs validation through continued orders and deliveries.

  Comparison

  Week 29 week-over-week growth was significantly higher than Li Auto and Xiaomi.

  Risks

  New model orders may reflect concentrated early-release demand after launch, and the durability of subsequent conversion and deliveries needs to be monitored.

• Li Auto

  Benefiting from the July 16 launch of the facelifted L6.

  Strengths

  Week 29 orders rose 131% week over week, with the new facelifted model driving demand.

  Weaknesses

  Orders fluctuated significantly in some prior weeks, so brand growth still needs continued validation.

  Comparison

  Week-over-week growth was lower than XPeng but significantly stronger than most major automakers.

  Risks

  Demand momentum may be affected by the popularity of the facelifted model, competing launches, and changes in dealer discounts.

• Xiaomi

  As one of the major new energy vehicle brands, its orders improved in Week 29.

  Strengths

  Week 29 orders rose 32% week over week, and its July 30 SkyNomad technology event is also worth watching.

  Weaknesses

  The table in the report still shows a large year-to-date decline, and historical base effects and supply-demand timing may cause volatility.

  Comparison

  Week-over-week growth was lower than XPeng and Li Auto, but it still ranked among the stronger-growth major brands.

  Risks

  There is uncertainty over how effectively the technology event will translate into orders and deliveries.

• Nio

  Relatively defensive in year-to-date order performance.

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders rose about 96% year over year, making it one of the relatively defensive growth brands mentioned in the report.

  Weaknesses

  Week 29 order momentum was weaker than XPeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi.

  Comparison

  YTD year-over-year performance was stronger than most listed brands.

  Risks

  Whether high growth can be sustained will depend on the model cycle and end-market demand.

• HIMA

  A tracked target in major new energy vehicle order monitoring.

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders rose about 27% year over year, which the report describes as relatively defensive.

  Weaknesses

  July MTD was negative year over year, suggesting short-term order pressure.

  Comparison

  YTD performance was better than the industry total but weaker than Nio.

  Risks

  Changes in brand and model mix, as well as intensifying competition, may affect order momentum.

• BYD

  A leading new energy vehicle company and a tracked target for dealer discounts.

  Strengths

  July MTD order volume remains high, and the average dealer discount narrowed from 4.10% to 3.95%.

  Weaknesses

  The report table shows 2026YTD order growth at -37% year over year, so short-term year-over-year pressure remains.

  Comparison

  Its discount rate is significantly below the new energy vehicle industry average of 6.94%.

  Risks

  If industry demand weakens or price competition intensifies again, sales and margins may come under pressure.

• Tesla

  A tracked target in major new energy vehicle order monitoring.

  Strengths

  2026YTD orders are about +3% year over year, more resilient than the industry total decline.

  Weaknesses

  July MTD is -38% year over year, indicating weak short-term orders.

  Comparison

  YTD year-over-year performance is better than the industry total, but short-term July performance is weak.

  Risks

  The model cycle, pricing strategy, and competition from local brands may affect orders.

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate and battery cells

  Upstream cost variables in the new energy vehicle supply chain.

  Strengths

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate remains at Rmb153k/ton, while prismatic LFP and NCM cell prices are stable, helping stabilize cost expectations.

  Weaknesses

  Stable prices do not necessarily mean improving downstream profitability and still need to be assessed together with dealer discounts and sales volume.

  Comparison

  Neither raw material nor cell prices showed meaningful week-over-week increases this week.

  Risks

  If improving demand pushes up raw material prices, vehicle margins could come under pressure again.

Key data

• Total orders for major new energy vehicle makers in Week 29+31% wow / +5% yoyMainly driven by the launch of the XPeng Mona L03 and the facelifted Li Auto L6.
• XPeng non-refundable orders in Week 2959.2k unitsRecorded after the Mona L03 launch, with 70% coming from the BEV version.
• Week-over-week orders for XPeng / Li Auto / Xiaomi+737% / +131% / +32%The strongest-growing key brands in Week 29.
• Passenger vehicle retail sales from July 1 to 12443k units, -15% yoy / -1% momCPCA data; the year-over-year decline narrowed from about -20% in 1H2026.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale sales from July 1 to 12379k units, -26% yoy / -17% momCPCA data.
• New energy vehicle retail sales from July 1 to 12280k units, -8% yoy / -3% momNEV retail penetration was 63.1%.
• New energy vehicle wholesale sales from July 1 to 12262k units, -9% yoy / -15% momNEV wholesale penetration was 69.1%.
• Average dealer discount for new energy vehicles6.94%As of July 18, 2026, below 7.29% on July 11 and 8.13% on July 28, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for BYD3.95%As of July 18, 2026, below 4.10% on July 11 and 5.45% on July 28, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for ICE vehicles19.55%As of July 18, 2026, below 20.11% on July 11 and 21.37% on July 28, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb153k/ton, +0.0% wowPrice was flat week over week.
• Prices of prismatic LFP and prismatic NCM cellsStable week over weekThe report states that prices of both types of prismatic cells were stable week over week.

Impact & implications

In the short term, new model launches remain the key source of elasticity for new energy vehicle orders, especially with the XPeng Mona L03 and the facelifted Li Auto L6 clearly boosting demand. Industry volume is still in year-over-year decline, but the narrowing drop in passenger vehicle retail sales and the persistently high NEV penetration rate suggest that structural NEV demand remains resilient. Narrower discounts and stable upstream costs help ease pressure from price wars and margins, but year-over-year sales and wholesale trends remain weak, meaning the industry recovery still requires validation from subsequent data.

Risks

• Year-over-year passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle retail and wholesale sales remain negative, and recovery in total industry volume is not yet solid.
• Part of the strong order growth in Week 29 came from the early effect of new model launches, so there is uncertainty over follow-through in order conversion and delivery sustainability.
• Although end-market price competition has eased temporarily, discounts remain at relatively high levels, especially for ICE vehicles where discounts are close to 20%.
• Upstream battery material prices are currently stable, but costs could become volatile again if demand recovers or supply is disrupted.
• This is a weekly high-frequency chartbook with a short data window, so single-week changes should not be directly extrapolated into long-term trends.

What to watch

• Weekly orders for newly launched models on July 21.
• Launch of the Lynk 07 GT on July 23.
• Launch of the five-seat Zeekr 9X on July 28.
• Xiaomi SkyNomad technology event on July 30.
• Monthly sales releases from new energy vehicle makers on August 1.
• Launch of the Avatr 07 L on August 8.
• CPCA releases passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle industry and model-level wholesale and retail data on August 10-11.
• Whether dealer discounts for new energy vehicles and ICE vehicles continue to narrow.
• Whether battery-grade lithium carbonate and LFP and NCM cell prices remain stable.