Goldman Sachs: China NEV orders in Week 26 rose 31% YoY excluding Xiaomi, with retail penetration at about 64%

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs weekly chartbook on China's NEV market, mainly covering major NEV maker orders in Week 26 of 2026, passenger vehicle retail and wholesale trends in early to mid-June, end-market dealer discounts, and upstream battery and battery material prices. The report's core conclusion is that NEV penetration remains high, some brands improved sequentially driven by new and facelifted models, but aggregate industry weekly orders pulled back sequentially after the new-model launch pulse in Week 25.

Core views

The report argues that the apparent year-over-year comparison in Week 26 was significantly distorted by the high base from Xiaomi's 2025 YU7 launch; excluding Xiaomi, orders of major NEV makers still rose 31% year over year. At the brand level, Li Auto, Geely, and Leapmotor led in sequential performance; year to date, Nio, HIMA, and Tesla have been relatively more defensive. On pricing, dealer discounts for both NEVs and traditional ICE vehicles narrowed slightly; on the supply chain side, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell markedly while battery cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report combines weekly order tracking, CPCA retail and wholesale data, dealer discount monitoring, and battery material price tracking, with a focus on demand strength, brand divergence, end-market pricing pressure, and upstream cost changes.

Methodology notes

• Industry trackingWeekly NEV order tracking

  Measure short-term demand and the effect of new model launches through weekly order changes at major NEV makers.

  The report compares orders in Weeks 23 to 26 of 2025 and 2026 and observes both year-over-year and week-over-week changes to identify the impact of high bases, new model launches, and order pulses on short-term data.

• Industry dataCPCA retail and wholesale trends

  Use passenger vehicle and NEV retail/wholesale volumes and penetration rates to measure industry demand structure.

  The report cites CPCA data from June 1 to 21, disclosing passenger vehicle and NEV retail and wholesale volumes, as well as NEV retail and wholesale penetration.

• Price monitoringDealer discounts versus manufacturers' suggested retail prices

  Observe price competition, channel pressure, and potential margin pressure through end-market discounts.

  The report compares average dealer discounts for NEVs, BYD, and traditional ICE vehicles as of June 27, versus levels on June 20 and July 7, 2025.

• Supply chain monitoringUpstream battery materials and battery cell prices

  Track cost-side changes using battery-grade lithium carbonate and prices of prismatic LFP and prismatic ternary battery cells.

  The report discloses prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate, prismatic LFP cells, and prismatic ternary cells as of June 29 and calculates week-over-week changes.

• Disclosure methodologyGoldman Sachs Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs' internal framework for comparing stock attributes.

  The disclosure section explains that this framework compares growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics, but the main body of this report still focuses on weekly industry data.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China NEV OEMs

  The report's core tracking targets; orders, penetration, and end-market discounts directly reflect vehicle demand and price competition.

  Strengths

  NEV retail and wholesale penetration reached 63.8% and 67.3%, respectively, while weekly orders of major automakers rose 31% year over year excluding Xiaomi.

  Weaknesses

  Aggregate orders of major automakers in Week 26 fell 17% week over week, showing some demand pullback after the new-model launch pulse in Week 25.

  Comparison

  The average discount for NEVs was 7.43%, significantly below the 19.61% discount level for traditional ICE vehicles.

  Risks

  Insufficient order sustainability for new models, intensifying price wars, base effects, and fluctuations in macro consumer demand.

• Li Auto / Geely / Leapmotor

  Brands leading Week 26 week-over-week growth.

  Strengths

  Orders rose 67%, 17%, and 6% week over week, respectively, driven by new or facelifted model launches such as the Li Auto L8 facelift and Leapmotor D99.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is highly dependent on the timing of new model launches and initial order pulses after launch.

  Comparison

  Their sequential performance was significantly better than the aggregate week-over-week change of -17% for major automakers.

  Risks

  Cooling initial demand for new models, delivery cadence, and competitor promotions may affect subsequent orders.

• Nio / HIMA / Tesla

  A group of brands with relatively defensive year-to-date order performance.

  Strengths

  2026 YTD orders were up +98%, +31%, and +2% year over year, respectively, outperforming the -26% year-over-year performance of the aggregate major automaker group.

  Weaknesses

  Tesla's year-to-date growth is only slightly positive, while it remains to be seen whether high growth at HIMA and Nio can continue.

  Comparison

  Relative defensiveness is mainly reflected in year-to-date order growth, rather than leadership in every weekly data point.

  Risks

  Brand competition, product cycles, price adjustments, and changes in channel delivery capability.

• BYD (Dynasty & Ocean)

  A leading NEV brand and sample for dealer discount tracking.

  Strengths

  June 2026 MTD orders were 270,800 units, the largest among sample brands; average dealer discount narrowed to 4.10%.

  Weaknesses

  2026 YTD orders fell 39% year over year, and June MTD orders fell 16% year over year.

  Comparison

  BYD's discount rate is below the NEV industry average of 7.43%, but order growth remains under pressure.

  Risks

  High base effects, product competition, changes in pricing strategy, and end-market demand volatility.

• Xiaomi

  The source of the year-over-year high-base distortion specifically highlighted in the report.

  Strengths

  2026 YTD orders were 169,500 units, still making it one of the important emerging brands in the sample.

  Weaknesses

  The June 26, 2025 YU7 launch created an abnormally high base, significantly depressing the apparent industry year-over-year comparison in Week 26.

  Comparison

  Excluding Xiaomi, year-over-year growth in orders of major NEV makers shifts from -69% to +31%, showing that its high base has a large impact on the overall year-over-year assessment.

  Risks

  Data volatility caused by new-model launch base effects may obscure the industry's true demand trend.

• Power battery and materials chain

  Affects vehicle costs and supply-chain profit allocation through lithium carbonate and battery cell prices.

  Strengths

  Stable week-over-week prices for prismatic LFP and prismatic ternary cells help maintain stable cost expectations.

  Weaknesses

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell 9.6% week over week, showing continued large volatility in raw material prices.

  Comparison

  Raw material prices were notably weaker than battery cell quotes, indicating that cost-side changes have not yet been fully passed through to cell prices.

  Risks

  Lithium price volatility, inventory cycle changes, supply-demand mismatch, and downstream bargaining pressure.

• Traditional ICE vehicles

  A comparison asset for NEV penetration and end-market discounts.

  Strengths

  Average dealer discount fell from 22.12% on July 7, 2025 to 19.61% on June 27, 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Discount rates remain significantly above those for NEVs, indicating greater end-market pricing pressure.

  Comparison

  The discount for traditional ICE vehicles is about 2.6x the 7.43% discount for NEVs.

  Risks

  Further increases in NEV penetration, market-share squeeze, and rising inventory pressure.

Key data

• Total weekly orders of major NEV makers in Week 26170,770 unitsThe period covers June 22 to June 28, 2026; apparent year-over-year decline of 69%, but up 31% year over year excluding Xiaomi, and down 17% week over week.
• MTD orders of major automakers in June 2026707,455 units; YoY -31%The table covers major brands including BYD, Geely, HIMA, Leapmotor, Tesla, Nio, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and XPeng.
• YTD orders of major automakers in 20263,373,875 units; YoY -26%Among year-to-date orders, Nio, HIMA, and Tesla were relatively defensive, with year-over-year changes of +98%, +31%, and +2%, respectively.
• Passenger vehicle retail sales913k units; YoY -23%; +7% vs. prior monthBased on CPCA data, for the period from June 1 to 21, 2026.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale sales999k units; YoY -14%; +9% vs. prior monthBased on CPCA data, for the period from June 1 to 21, 2026.
• NEV retail sales583k units; YoY -10%; +11% vs. prior monthBased on CPCA data, for the period from June 1 to 21, 2026.
• NEV wholesale sales673k units; YoY +8%; +17% vs. prior monthNEV wholesale growth outpaced retail, indicating stronger recovery on the supply side or in channels.
• NEV retail and wholesale penetration63.8% / 67.3%From June 1 to 21, retail and wholesale penetration were 63.8% and 67.3%, respectively, versus 63.0% and 61.1% in May.
• Average dealer discount for NEVs7.43%As of June 27, 2026, narrowed versus 7.48% on June 20 and 7.95% on July 7, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for BYD4.10%As of June 27, 2026, narrowed versus 4.27% on June 20 and 5.56% on July 7, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for traditional ICE vehicles19.61%As of June 27, 2026, essentially flat versus 19.62% on June 20, and below 22.12% on July 7, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb151.5k/ton; WoW -9.6%As of June 29, 2026, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices declined significantly week over week.
• Prismatic battery cell pricesLFP Rmb0.35/Wh; ternary Rmb0.47/WhAs of June 29, 2026, prices of prismatic LFP and prismatic ternary battery cells were both flat week over week.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, high penetration and continued year-over-year order growth excluding Xiaomi support the medium-term structural trend of China's NEV supply chain, but the sequential pullback in Week 26 suggests that the durability of post-launch order momentum still needs to be verified. Slightly narrowing end-market discounts may help ease price-war pressure, but discounts on traditional ICE vehicles remain significantly higher than those on NEVs, indicating greater demand pressure for ICE vehicles. The decline in upstream lithium carbonate prices may improve battery and vehicle costs, but may also reflect uncertainty in material supply-demand and inventory cycles.

Risks

• The high base from Xiaomi's YU7 launch in the same period of 2025 may distort the apparent industry year-over-year comparison, so ex-Xiaomi figures should also be monitored.
• The order pulse after new-model launches in Week 25 may not be sustainable; the week-over-week pullback in Week 26 already shows short-term demand volatility.
• Although dealer discounts have narrowed, price competition may still re-emerge, affecting vehicle margins and channel confidence.
• The rapid decline in lithium carbonate prices reflects volatility in upstream material prices and may affect inventory and supply-chain profit allocation.
• CPCA data and automaker order data use different definitions; there are timing gaps and statistical boundary differences among retail, wholesale, and orders.
• Macro consumer demand, subsidy policies, model supply cadence, and competitor launches may all change subsequent order performance.

What to watch

• July 1: NEV makers release monthly sales.
• July 2: XPeng launches MONA L03.
• July 2: BYD launches Seal 08.
• July 10-11: CPCPA releases industry and model-level wholesale and retail data for passenger vehicles and NEVs.
• July: WAIC to be held in Shanghai.
• July: Li Auto launches facelifted L6.
• August 1: NEV makers release monthly sales.