South Korea technology exports Report Interpretation

Overview

Goldman Sachs tracks August 2026 South Korean exports and imports across memory, displays, MLCC, Li-ion batteries and semiconductor wafer-fabrication equipment. The central conclusion is that memory and semiconductor investment momentum remained exceptionally strong, although display exports weakened and HBM-related material flows diverged between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Core views

The August data remained broadly positive despite there being 0.5 fewer working days than a year earlier—22.0 days in August 2026 versus 22.5 in August 2025. Memory was the standout: export value rose 290% year on year, extending the run of 200%+ growth to seven consecutive months. DRAM exports increased 412%, the highest growth rate since Goldman Sachs began tracking the series in January 2008. NAND chip exports rose 343%, continuing ten consecutive months of triple-digit growth, while SSD exports increased 480%. MOTIE attributed the strength to demand from AI infrastructure construction and continued memory-price increases caused by excess demand. Goldman Sachs translates this export strength into substantial third-quarter growth expectations for the major Korean memory suppliers. For Samsung Electronics, it expects memory revenue to rise 446% year on year in 3Q26, including DRAM growth of 466% and NAND growth of 402%. For SK Hynix, it expects total revenue to increase 305%, with DRAM and NAND revenue growing 291% and 392%, respectively. These forecasts reinforce the report's view that the trade data reflect both powerful AI-related demand and broad pricing support across memory products. For HBM, the report uses imports of specific Japanese packaging materials into Korean production locations as shipment proxies. Epoxide-resin imports from Japan into Icheon and Cheongju are used to gauge SK Hynix HBM output because the report believes Hynix mainly sources MR-MUF materials from Namics. Plastic-film imports into Hwaseong and Pyeongtaek serve as a proxy for Samsung Electronics because the report believes Samsung mainly sources TC-NCF materials from Resonac. Goldman Sachs says these material flows have shown strong correlations with the respective companies' HBM shipments. Those HBM proxies diverged in July. Epoxide-resin imports associated with SK Hynix fell 18% year on year and were only 1% higher year to date through July. Samsung Electronics-related plastic-film imports rose 134% year on year in July and 84% year to date. The report interprets this contrast as evidence of a strong recovery in Samsung Electronics' HBM competitiveness, rather than as a uniform acceleration across both suppliers. Displays were the principal area of weakness. Total display exports fell 5% year on year in August: LCD exports grew 9%, but OLED exports declined 8%. MOTIE said demand for premium OLED products remained solid, but average selling prices fell under pricing pressure from downstream customers. Consistent with this mixed backdrop, Goldman Sachs expects LG Display's 3Q26 revenue to decline 2% year on year, compared with modest growth of 1% for Samsung Display. Other tracked categories remained constructive. MLCC exports increased 15% year on year and recorded a fourth consecutive month of double-digit growth. Goldman Sachs expects Samsung Electro-Mechanics' MLCC revenue to rise 44% in 3Q26, led mainly by continued demand for AI-server and automotive MLCCs. Li-ion battery exports rose 5% in August, maintaining positive year-on-year growth after a 53% rebound in May. MOTIE linked the battery improvement to higher average selling prices following mineral-price increases, expansion of Europe's EV market and growth in the North American energy-storage market. Semiconductor wafer-fabrication equipment also showed strong trade momentum: exports increased 129% and imports rose 153% year on year in August. Goldman Sachs attributes the particularly strong import growth to increased capital expenditure by memory suppliers as they upgrade technology and expand capacity. This supports the report's broader conclusion that the memory upcycle is accompanied by investment in future production capability, not merely stronger current shipments. The company-specific methodology sections provide valuation context without establishing a single report-wide rating. Samsung Electronics' common and preference shares are both rated Buy, with 12-month targets of W490,000 and W360,000. The common-share target uses a 2026-2027E EV/EBITDA-based sum-of-the-parts approach; the preference-share target applies a 27% discount derived by averaging a two-factor-model discount and the average preference-to-common discount over the prior month. SK Hynix has a W3,500,000 12-month target based on 9.0X average 2026E/27E P/E. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is Buy rated with a W2,250,000 target using a 2027E-2028E EV/EBITDA-driven sum-of-the-parts method. LG Display is Neutral rated with a W11,600 target based on 0.9x 12-month forward P/B. The explicit company risks show how the favorable export data could fail to translate into expected earnings or valuation. Samsung Electronics faces deterioration in memory supply-demand conditions, a sharp contraction in smartphone margins and loss of mobile OLED share. SK Hynix faces weaker conventional-memory demand, delayed technology migration, stronger Samsung HBM progress and lower AI-related capital expenditure. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is exposed to stronger-than-expected MLCC supply or weaker AI-server, automotive and smartphone demand. LG Display remains sensitive to IT LCD panel prices and TV OLED shipment levels.

Analysis framework

The report first compares monthly South Korean trade data with the prior year and prior month across major technology products. It then connects memory exports to AI demand and pricing, maps the data into 3Q26 company revenue forecasts, and uses location-specific imports of Japanese HBM materials as shipment proxies for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. It separately evaluates display, MLCC, battery and WFE trends before presenting company-specific valuation frameworks and downside risks.

Methodology notes

• Other

  Monthly export and import tracking using year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons

  Goldman Sachs follows recurring South Korean trade series to identify changes in technology-product demand and production activity. Year-on-year comparisons establish trend strength, while monthly movements help show near-term acceleration or deceleration.

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Memory supply-demand and pricing analysis

  The report explains memory export growth through AI-infrastructure demand and price increases caused by excess demand, then links those conditions to supplier revenue expectations.

• Other

  HBM material-import proxy analysis

  Imports of epoxide resins into SK Hynix production locations and plastic film into Samsung Electronics production locations are treated as proxies for HBM shipment scale because the report observes a strong historical correlation between those material flows and company shipments.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  EV/EBITDA-based sum-of-the-parts valuation

  The report values Samsung Electronics using 2026-2027E segment EV/EBITDA inputs and Samsung Electro-Mechanics using 2027E-2028E EV/EBITDA inputs, aggregating the assessed value of their component businesses into 12-month targets.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Average forward P/E valuation for SK Hynix

  SK Hynix's W3,500,000 12-month target applies a 9.0X multiple to average 2026E and 2027E earnings.

• Valuation methodsPB valuation

  Forward price-to-book valuation for LG Display

  LG Display's W11,600 target applies a 0.9x multiple to 12-month forward book value.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Samsung Electronics (Pref) (005935.KS)

  Memory export strength and rising HBM-related plastic-film imports support the report's expectation of a strong recovery in memory and HBM competitiveness.

  Strengths

  3Q26 memory revenue is forecast to rise 446% year on year, with DRAM up 466% and NAND up 402%; the HBM proxy increased 134% year on year in July and 84% year to date.

  Weaknesses

  The report identifies exposure to smartphone margins and mobile OLED market share.

  Comparison

  Samsung's HBM material proxy materially outperformed SK Hynix's through July, implying improving relative HBM competitiveness.

  Risks

  Major memory supply-demand deterioration, a sharp contraction in smartphone margins and loss of mobile OLED market share.

• SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)

  The company is directly exposed to exceptionally strong DRAM and NAND trends, although its HBM material-import proxy weakened in July.

  Strengths

  3Q26 total revenue is forecast to grow 305% year on year, including DRAM growth of 291% and NAND growth of 392%.

  Weaknesses

  Epoxide-resin imports fell 18% year on year in July and increased only 1% year to date.

  Comparison

  Its HBM proxy trailed Samsung Electronics' plastic-film import growth of 134% year on year and 84% year to date.

  Risks

  Memory supply-demand deterioration, delayed technology migration, weaker smartphone, PC or server demand, stronger Samsung HBM progress and lower AI-related capital expenditure.

• Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS)

  The company is linked to the continuing MLCC export expansion, particularly demand from AI servers and automobiles.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs expects 3Q26 MLCC revenue to grow 44% year on year and maintains a Buy rating with a W2,250,000 12-month target.

  Risks

  Stronger-than-expected industry MLCC supply or weaker-than-expected AI-server, automotive and smartphone demand.

• LG Display (034220.KS)

  The company is exposed to weak OLED exports and display pricing pressure, partly offset by positive LCD export growth.

  Strengths

  LCD exports increased 9% year on year, and MOTIE described premium OLED demand as solid.

  Weaknesses

  OLED exports declined 8% and Goldman Sachs expects LG Display's 3Q26 revenue to fall 2% year on year.

  Comparison

  Samsung Display revenue is expected to increase 1% year on year in 3Q26, compared with a 2% decline for LG Display.

  Risks

  Higher or lower IT LCD panel pricing and higher or lower TV OLED shipments.

Key data

• August working days22.0 days0.5 fewer than the 22.5 days in August 2025
• Memory exports+290% yoySeventh consecutive month of 200%+ year-on-year growth
• DRAM exports+412% yoyHighest growth rate since tracking began in January 2008
• NAND chip exports+343% yoyTenth consecutive month of triple-digit growth
• SSD exports+480% yoyAugust 2026
• Samsung Electronics 3Q26 memory revenue forecast+446% yoyDRAM and NAND revenue are forecast to grow 466% and 402%, respectively
• SK Hynix 3Q26 total revenue forecast+305% yoyDRAM and NAND revenue are forecast to grow 291% and 392%, respectively
• SK Hynix HBM proxy-18% yoyJuly epoxide-resin imports; up 1% year to date through July
• Samsung Electronics HBM proxy+134% yoyJuly plastic-film imports; up 84% year to date through July
• Display exports-5% yoyLCD increased 9%, while OLED declined 8%
• LG Display 3Q26 revenue forecast-2% yoyCompared with expected growth of 1% for Samsung Display
• MLCC exports+15% yoyFourth consecutive month of double-digit growth
• Samsung Electro-Mechanics 3Q26 MLCC revenue forecast+44% yoyLed mainly by AI-server and automotive MLCC strength
• Li-ion battery exports+5% yoyPositive growth continued after a 53% rebound in May
• WFE equipment tradeExports +129% yoy; imports +153% yoyThe report links import growth to memory suppliers' technology upgrades and capacity expansion

Impact & implications

The report indicates that AI-related demand, memory pricing and supplier capital expenditure are reinforcing one another across South Korea's semiconductor ecosystem. Samsung Electronics' sharply stronger HBM material-import proxy suggests improving competitiveness, while SK Hynix's proxy is softer. Benefits outside memory are selective: AI-server and automotive demand support MLCC, and EV and ESS expansion support batteries, but downstream pricing pressure continues to weigh on OLED exports and LG Display's near-term revenue outlook.

Risks

• For Samsung Electronics, the report identifies major memory supply-demand deterioration, sharply lower smartphone margins and mobile OLED market-share loss as downside risks.
• For SK Hynix, risks include weaker conventional-memory demand, delayed technology migration, stronger Samsung HBM progress and lower AI-related capital expenditure.
• For Samsung Electro-Mechanics, stronger MLCC supply or weaker AI-server, automotive and smartphone demand could undermine the forecast.
• For LG Display, outcomes are sensitive to IT LCD panel pricing and TV OLED shipment levels.

What to watch

• Track whether memory exports maintain the seven-month run of 200%+ year-on-year growth.
• Monitor DRAM, NAND and SSD exports to determine whether AI demand and memory-price support persist.
• Compare SK Hynix epoxide-resin imports with Samsung Electronics plastic-film imports as HBM shipment proxies.
• Watch whether OLED export growth and display average selling prices recover from August weakness.
• Follow MLCC demand from AI servers and automobiles and battery demand from European EVs and North American energy storage.
• Monitor WFE imports for evidence that memory suppliers continue upgrading technology and expanding capacity.