Goldman Sachs: DRAM Cycle Continues to Improve, Significantly Upgrading Samsung's 2027 HBM Pricing Expectation

Overview

This report constructs the June 2026 DRAM sentiment indicator by tracking nine high-frequency indicators including DRAM spot prices, server ODM revenues, and South Korea export data. Results show industry sentiment continues to be constructive (positive/upward trend). Core logic lies in strong DDR5/HBM demand driven by AI servers, pushing spot prices significantly above contract prices, and export data hitting records. Based on this, Goldman Sachs significantly upgrades expectation for Samsung Electronics 2027 HBM pricing growth, and maintains its Buy rating.

Core views

Price Side: DRAM spot market performance strong. Since early May, DDR4 prices rose moderately, with a premium of up to 45% over May contract prices; DDR5 prices also showed positive trends, with a premium of 25% over May contract prices. This significant spot-contract spread reflects the urgency of immediate demand. Demand Side: AI servers are the core driver. May Taiwan major server ODM manufacturers' (such as Quanta, Wistron, etc.) revenue grew significantly by 53% YoY; although环比微降 3% (slight QoQ decrease of 3%), it was mainly due to shipment increases of rack-level AI servers and ASIC AI servers. As the leader in server BMC chips, Aspeed May revenue surged strongly by 69% YoY, further validating the high health of the server upstream. In addition, China smartphone shipment volumes achieved two consecutive months of YoY growth in May (+19%); although Q2 is expected to decline due to terminal demand suppression from memory price hikes, overall resilience remains. Exports and Performance: May South Korea DRAM export value reached a historic high, exceeding the March high by 21%, surging 370% YoY. This was mainly driven by memory price increases and stable demand from large technology companies in the US and China. Taiwan DRAM supplier Nanya Tech May revenue exploded by 730% YoY, achieving triple-digit growth for 10 consecutive months, mainly driven by strengthening DDR4 prices. Expectation Adjustments: Based on channel surveys and investor feedback, market expectations for traditional memory contract prices have improved, and expectations for 2027 HBM pricing have improved significantly. Goldman Sachs upgraded Samsung Electronics 2027 HBM pricing YoY growth expectation from previous 14% significantly to 44%. The report believes that considering HBM supply-demand tightness and the widening price gap with traditional DRAM, this expectation still has upside risk.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs adopts an 'High-Frequency Data Tracking + Channel Verification' analysis framework. First, construct a DRAM sentiment indicator system covering 9 dimensions, including daily spot prices, monthly ODM/BMC manufacturer revenues, monthly export data, phone shipment volumes, major manufacturer revenues and ASP second derivatives, etc. Second, ensure trend judgment accuracy by cross-validating these independent data sources (e.g., Aspeed revenue verifies server demand together with ODM revenue, export data verifies global demand). Finally, combine channel communication with investors and the industrial chain (Channel Checks), qualitative correction of quantitative model expectations, especially for forward-looking adjustments to pricing of long-cycle, high-barrier products like HBM.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Assess industry health by splitting DRAM Average Selling Price (ASP) and shipment volumes

  The report not only focuses on export amount growth but also deeply analyzes the premium magnitude between spot and contract prices, as well as changes in ASP growth rate (second derivative), to more accurately judge whether 'volume increase' or 'price increase' drives the current cycle.

• Event Trading & Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap/Expectation Management

  Adjust long-term pricing expectations based on channel feedback

  Based on exchanges with investors and channel feedback, the report found that market expectations for 2027 HBM pricing are undergoing structural transformation, so it significantly upgraded long-term pricing assumptions, reflecting the capture and correction of market expectation gaps.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  Core beneficiary target, possesses leading HBM technology and capacity, directly benefits from HBM pricing upgrade and DRAM price increase.

  Strengths

  Leading HBM technology, active capacity expansion, first global market share in DRAM.

  Weaknesses

  Mobile OLED market share may be lost, smartphone profit margins under pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared to peers such as SK Hynix, Samsung's comprehensive layout in storage and foundry makes its risk resistance stronger, but HBM progress was slightly behind, currently accelerating catch-up.

  Risks

  Memory supply-demand relationship worsens significantly, smartphone profit margins shrink significantly, Mobile OLED market share lost.

Key data

• DDR5 Spot Price Premium+25%Premium over May contract price, reflecting short-term供不应求 (shortage)
• DDR4 Spot Price Premium+45%Premium over May contract price, significant increase
• Taiwan Server ODM Revenue Growth+53% YoYMay data, driven by AI server shipments
• Aspeed Revenue Growth+69% YoYMay data, validates server upstream health
• South Korea DRAM Export Growth+370% YoYHistoric high in May, driven by US and China large firm demand
• Samsung 2027E HBM Pricing Growth Expectation+44%Significant upgrade from previous +14%
• Samsung 2Q26E DRAM ASP QoQ Growth+46%Expected quarterly ASP increase significantly

Impact & implications

For Samsung Electronics, the upward revision of HBM pricing expectation directly enhances its long-term earnings visibility and valuation center. The steadfast prices of DDR5 and traditional DRAM also provide stable cash flow support for the company. The report believes that as AI server penetration rates rise, the price gap between HBM and traditional DRAM will widen further, and leading firms with HBM capacity and technological advantages will achieve excess returns. For the entire memory industry, the current high business health is expected to continue to 2027, but vigilance is needed against potential suppression of terminal consumer electronics demand due to high prices.

Risks

• Memory supply-demand relationship suffers significant deterioration
• Smartphone profit margins shrink significantly
• Mobile OLED market share lost

What to watch

• Actual pricing trend and supply-demand tightness of 2027 HBM
• Change in price spread between Traditional DRAM and HBM
• Sustainability of AI Server shipment volumes
• Performance of China Smartphone shipment volumes under high memory prices