July export data show Samsung accelerating HBM4 volume ramp-up, with 3Q26 HBM revenue and share potentially surpassing SK hynix

Overview

The report uses July multi-chip memory export data from Korean customs to forecast Samsung's and SK hynix's quarterly HBM revenue. The core conclusion is that overall industry exports remain strong, but the two companies have diverged markedly: Samsung's HBM4 ramp-up is faster than expected and may give it the lead in HBM revenue and market share in 3Q26, while SK hynix may be temporarily lagging due to NVIDIA Rubin delays but could subsequently catch up.

Core views

Korea's July multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia fell 32% from June's record high, which the report mainly attributes to seasonality; they were still up 13% versus April and 64% YoY, indicating that HBM-related export momentum remained strong entering 3Q26. Bernstein focuses on Taiwan and Malaysia because the export value per unit weight to these destinations is significantly higher than to other markets and has historically been highly correlated with Samsung's and SK hynix's HBM revenue. Korea's July multi-chip memory exports to all countries totaled US$10.1B, down 20% MoM but up 24% versus April; Taiwan and Malaysia accounted for 41% of the total, down from 45% in April. The report believes the increased share of other regions mainly reflects rising conventional memory prices rather than the emergence of new HBM export destinations. Samsung's data were significantly stronger than expected. Exports from South Chungcheong Province, used as a proxy for its HBM back-end packaging, reached US$2.2B in July. Although down 35% from the seasonally elevated level in June, they were up 122% versus April; Samsung's monthly exports have exceeded SK hynix's for two consecutive months. Based on a regression using historical data from 1Q23 to 2Q26, July exports imply approximately US$12B in Samsung HBM revenue in 3Q26, up approximately 80% QoQ and approximately 30% above Bernstein's previous forecast of US$9.3B. Using only data since 1Q25 raises the forecast further to US$12.6B, corresponding to approximately 90% QoQ growth. Samsung's exports within a quarter have usually been significantly back-end-loaded since 1Q25, with the first month averaging less than 20% of the full-quarter total. Therefore, if this pattern continues in 3Q26, exports should increase significantly in August and September. The data are also consistent with company guidance: Samsung expects HBM4 sales to grow more than threefold QoQ in 3Q26 and account for more than 60% of its total HBM sales in 2H26. The report therefore believes Samsung could gain HBM share this year and potentially take the market-share lead in 3Q26. SK hynix's July data, by contrast, were unexpectedly weak. Exports from North Chungcheong Province and Icheon, its main production locations, fell 28% MoM and 27% versus April, contrary to Bernstein's prior expectation of QoQ HBM revenue growth in 3Q26. Historical regression implies only US$5.6B in 3Q26 HBM revenue, down approximately 20% from 2Q26, 55% below the previous forecast, and also behind Samsung. Unlike Samsung, SK hynix's exports are generally more evenly distributed within a quarter, so historical seasonality does not support a natural sharp rebound in August and September. The report mainly attributes the July weakness to delayed HBM4 shipments and believes this may be related to delays in NVIDIA Rubin; however, SK hynix has guided that HBM4 entered mass production in 2Q26 and will ramp fully in 2H26, so a recovery remains possible later in the quarter. In an upside scenario, if 3Q26 replicates the most back-end-loaded quarterly seasonality since 2024, seen in 2Q24, SK hynix's quarterly HBM revenue could still reach US$12B and approach Bernstein's previous forecast. However, the base case remains that growth will fall short of expectations and its share may temporarily trail Samsung. Export value per unit weight further supports the divergence in the two companies' HBM4 progress. This metric can only provide a directional indication of HBM average selling prices and product mix and cannot be used for precise price estimates. In July, export value per unit weight in Samsung's proxy region rose another 21% MoM, more than doubling versus April and approaching four times SK hynix's level that month. The report believes the main reason is a higher proportion of high-value HBM4 rather than broad-based price increases across comparable HBM products. SK hynix's metric rose only moderately and its overall trend was broadly flat, not yet showing a large-scale HBM4 ramp-up in the mix. However, if its 2H26 ramp-up guidance is achieved, this metric should rise more noticeably over the coming months. HBM price trends also differ markedly from conventional memory. The report states that conventional memory prices have risen approximately fivefold since 3Q25, while HBM's value per unit weight has been much more stable overall; Samsung's improvement to approximately twice its previous level mainly reflects earlier HBM4 shipments and a product-mix upgrade. Given SK hynix's larger scale in HBM and the downward trend in its value per unit weight, the industry's blended average could even decline YoY. Meanwhile, suppliers and customers are negotiating 2027 HBM contracts and pricing. Bernstein expects price increases to drive upward revisions to Samsung's and SK hynix's 2027 earnings forecasts and support memory chip stocks in the near term. The report also expects conventional memory prices to continue rising in 3Q26 and mentions further price increases in 3Q27 as well as expectations for higher HBM prices in 2027. Malaysia is another important clue. Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Malaysia rose 20% MoM against the seasonal trend in July, reaching approximately US$1.3B; the average monthly level over the past six months was approximately US$0.78B, compared with approximately US$3.6B for Taiwan. Samsung still accounted for most exports to Malaysia, with its July amount flat MoM, but Malaysia represented 42% of Samsung's related exports that month and 30% over the past three months. SK hynix's exports also increased significantly during the month, but remained far below Samsung's and its own exports to Taiwan. The report speculates that these shipments may be destined for Intel's high-end EMIB packaging facilities and believes this growth is helping Samsung broaden customer acceptance of its HBM. However, customer adoption through mass production usually takes another one to two years, leaving the reason for such early export growth unexplained. The report found no new HBM packaging locations within Korea or new major export destinations; South Chungcheong Province, North Chungcheong Province, and Icheon still account for nearly all related exports to Taiwan and Malaysia. At the stock level, the report believes earnings upgrades driven by conventional memory price increases and HBM shortages could support share prices in the near term, while potential shareholder return plans may also attract value investors back. Bernstein is structurally positive on DRAM and on Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, but cautions that the memory industry is exposed to cyclical risks. Regarding KIOXIA, even after considering the significant share-price correction and more proactive shareholder returns, the report remains cautious due to NAND competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers and believes the current share price remains expensive based on its detailed SOTP valuation.

Analysis framework

Bernstein first screens HBM-related flows using Korean customs data on multi-chip memory exports, treating exports from South Chungcheong Province as a proxy for Samsung and exports from North Chungcheong Province and Icheon as proxies for SK hynix, while focusing primarily on Taiwan and Malaysia, two destinations with high export value per unit weight. The report then regresses historical export values against quarterly HBM revenue and combines the results with each company's monthly seasonality within the quarter to construct 3Q26 revenue scenarios. It subsequently uses export value per unit weight to assess HBM4-driven changes in product mix and pricing, validates the supply-chain explanation through destinations, origins, and packaging stages, and finally maps the findings to market share, earnings revisions, and stock views.

Methodology notes

• Quantitative/Factor/Portfolio Theory

  Historical regression of export value against quarterly HBM revenue

  Based on the historical relationship between monthly multi-chip memory exports from specific production regions to Taiwan and Malaysia and each company's quarterly HBM revenue, the report uses regression to estimate Samsung's and SK hynix's 3Q26 HBM revenue.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkPrice-Volume Decomposition

  Export value per unit weight as a proxy for HBM pricing and product mix

  Because HBM's dollar value per unit weight is far higher than that of conventional memory, the report divides export value by weight to observe directional changes in average selling prices or product mix, while explicitly noting that the metric is insufficient for precise price estimates.

• Cycle and Business Conditions Framework

  Monthly export seasonality analysis within the quarter

  The report compares the historical shares of the first month and the latter two months in quarterly exports to determine whether July data can represent the full quarter. Samsung is usually back-end-loaded, while SK hynix is more evenly distributed, leading to different assessments of their potential subsequent rebounds.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Industry Chain Transmission

  Identifying HBM flows by production origin, destination, and packaging stage

  The report links Korean production and packaging regions with downstream packaging locations such as CoWoS in Taiwan and Intel EMIB in Malaysia to distinguish HBM exports from conventional mobile memory exports.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Forward P/E valuation

  The report values Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron using EPS five to eight quarters forward and corresponding P/E multiples, and derives KIOXIA's target price using one-year forward EPS and a 4.1x P/E multiple.

• Valuation MethodSOTP Valuation

  KIOXIA SOTP valuation

  The report cites its detailed SOTP valuation as the basis for concluding that KIOXIA's current share price remains expensive.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, 005935.KS, SMSN.LI)

  July exports and value per unit weight indicate an accelerating HBM4 volume ramp-up, and the report expects its 3Q26 HBM revenue could significantly exceed expectations and take the share lead.

  Strengths

  Exports from South Chungcheong Province rose 122% versus April; historical regression points to approximately US$12B to US$12.6B in 3Q26 HBM revenue; Malaysia's high share of exports indicates broader customer acceptance.

  Weaknesses

  Monthly exports are significantly back-end-loaded seasonally, so the single-month data still depend on delivery in August and September; the increase in value per unit weight mainly reflects an improved product mix and is not equivalent to broad-based price increases across comparable HBM products.

  Comparison

  July monthly exports exceeded SK hynix's for the second consecutive month, while export value per unit weight approached four times SK hynix's.

  Risks

  Weakening demand or increased supply could bring the favorable pricing environment to an early end, alongside industry cyclicality and advances by Chinese memory manufacturers.

• SK hynix (000660.KS)

  July exports were significantly weaker than expected. The report believes its HBM4 shipments may have been affected by NVIDIA Rubin delays, and its 3Q26 revenue and share could temporarily lag Samsung.

  Strengths

  HBM4 entered mass production in 2Q26 and is scheduled for a full ramp-up in 2H26; if the latter part of the quarter follows extremely back-end-loaded seasonality, 3Q26 HBM revenue could still recover to approximately US$12B.

  Weaknesses

  Exports from its proxy regions fell 28% MoM and 27% versus April; the base-case regression points to only US$5.6B in revenue, while historical seasonality is usually more evenly distributed.

  Comparison

  Under the base-case regression, 3Q26 HBM revenue is below Samsung's, while export value per unit weight rose only moderately, with no clear sign yet of an HBM4 mix ramp-up.

  Risks

  A slower-than-expected recovery in HBM4 shipments, further Rubin delays, and an early end to the favorable pricing cycle.

• Micron Technology (MU)

  The report lists Micron alongside Samsung and SK hynix as structurally favored DRAM and memory chip names and believes memory price increases and earnings upgrades could provide near-term support.

  Strengths

  Benefits from the report's expected increase in conventional memory prices and higher 2027 HBM contract pricing.

  Weaknesses

  This report does not provide monthly export proxy data for Micron.

  Comparison

  The report does not provide a detailed comparison of Micron's operating data with Samsung or SK hynix.

  Risks

  A reversal in the memory cycle, weakening demand, increased supply, and changes in valuation sentiment.

• KIOXIA Holdings (285A.JP)

  The report remains cautious due to competition from Chinese manufacturers, structural NAND pressure, and valuation factors.

  Strengths

  The share price has corrected significantly and shareholder returns are more proactive; stronger NAND demand, Japanese government capex subsidies, or better-than-expected cost reductions constitute upside scenarios for the target price.

  Weaknesses

  The report believes the NAND competitive landscape faces structural issues, while its detailed SOTP valuation indicates that the current share price remains expensive.

  Comparison

  Unlike the structurally favored Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, KIOXIA receives a cautious view and an Underperform rating.

  Risks

  Advances by Chinese manufacturers in NAND technology and capacity, as well as adverse changes in demand, pricing, and investor valuation sentiment.

Key data

• Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and MalaysiaJuly MoM -32%, versus April +13%, YoY +64%The MoM decline was attributed to seasonality, while quarterly and annual growth remained strong
• Korea's multi-chip memory exports to all countriesUS$10.1BJuly MoM -20%, versus April +24%
• July exports from Samsung's proxy regionUS$2.2BMoM -35%, versus April +122%
• Regression estimate for Samsung's 3Q26 HBM revenueApproximately US$12BApproximately +80% QoQ and approximately 30% above Bernstein's US$9.3B forecast
• Samsung recent-sample regression scenarioUS$12.6BUsing only data since 1Q25, corresponding to approximately +90% QoQ in 3Q26
• Samsung HBM4 sales guidanceMore than threefold QoQ growth in 3Q26The company also guided that HBM4 would account for more than 60% of total HBM sales in 2H26
• July exports from SK hynix's proxy regionsMoM -28%, versus April -27%Significantly weaker than the report's previous expectation for 3Q26 HBM revenue growth
• Regression estimate for SK hynix's 3Q26 HBM revenueUS$5.6BDown approximately 20% from 2Q26 and 55% below Bernstein's forecast
• SK hynix highly back-end-loaded seasonal scenarioUS$12BIf the most back-end-loaded seasonality since 2Q24 is replicated, 3Q26 revenue could approach the previous forecast
• Samsung export value per unit weightJuly MoM +21%More than doubled versus April and approached four times SK hynix's July level
• Change in conventional memory pricesUp approximately fivefold since 3Q25The report states that HBM prices have been relatively more stable and that improvement in Samsung's metric mainly reflects the HBM4 mix upgrade
• Korean exports to MalaysiaApproximately US$1.3BJuly MoM +20%; average monthly level over the past six months was approximately US$0.78B
• Malaysia's share of Samsung-related exports42% in July; 30% over the past three monthsThe report believes this flow has become one of the drivers of Samsung's HBM revenue growth
• Share of exports to Taiwan and Malaysia41%As a share of Korea's total multi-chip memory exports in July, down from 45% in April

Impact & implications

The report believes Samsung's earlier and faster HBM4 advancement could drive its 3Q26 HBM revenue significantly above Bernstein's previous forecast and temporarily give it the market-share lead; SK hynix will need to rely on an HBM4 ramp-up later in the quarter to close the gap. Higher 2027 HBM contract prices and rising conventional memory prices are expected to drive earnings forecast upgrades and support memory chip stocks such as Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron in the near term. However, the industry cycle and the impact of Chinese manufacturers on the NAND competitive landscape still need to be assessed over the medium to long term. KIOXIA receives a more cautious assessment due to structural competitive pressure and elevated valuation.

Risks

• The favorable memory pricing environment may end earlier due to weakening demand or increased supply.
• Changes in investor sentiment may reduce the valuations assigned to memory chip companies by the market.
• Technological and capacity advances by Chinese memory manufacturers, particularly developments in NAND, may intensify structural competition.
• The report explicitly warns that the memory industry is exposed to cyclical risks.
• Export tracking cannot capture HBM packaging moved outside Korea or HBM packaged into other products within Korea, so the proxy data may underestimate actual shipments.

What to watch

• Monitor whether Samsung's exports increase significantly in August and September in line with historical back-end-loaded seasonality, validating the 3Q26 HBM revenue scenario of approximately US$12B to US$12.6B.
• Monitor whether SK hynix can accelerate HBM4 shipments later in the quarter and whether its export value per unit weight rises more noticeably.
• Continue tracking Korea's HBM-related exports to Malaysia and their relationship with Intel EMIB packaging demand to explain why the volume ramp-up occurred earlier than expected.
• Watch the ongoing negotiations between suppliers and customers over 2027 HBM contract pricing and their impact on 2027 earnings forecasts.
• Track CXMT's progress and YMTC's IPO to assess the long-term threat posed by Chinese manufacturers to the memory, particularly NAND, competitive landscape.
• Watch whether memory chip companies announce new shareholder return plans.
• Monitor for new HBM packaging locations within Korea, packaging shifts outside Korea, or new major export destinations.