August DRAM sentiment remains moderately positive, with 2027 HBM price-increase expectations revised significantly higher

Overview

The report evaluates the August 2026 DRAM cycle using ten price, demand, export, supply-chain revenue, forecast, and channel indicators, concluding that conditions are moderately positive. Conventional DRAM prices continue to rise, but slowing gains and weak smartphone demand create near-term disagreement; Goldman Sachs places greater weight on AI demand, tight HBM supply and demand, and improved terms in suppliers’ long-term agreements, and has significantly raised its 2027 HBM price forecast.

Core views

Goldman Sachs’ August 2026 DRAM sentiment indicator points to “moderately positive,” unchanged from June. The report argues that the current bull/bear divide has not disappeared: bears mainly worry that memory price gains will continue to slow, while bulls emphasize structural support from AI demand and suppliers signing long-term agreements on more favorable terms, which could provide downside protection unlike in previous cycles. Spot prices remain a positive signal. DDR4 spot prices rose 7% month over month in August and traded at a 43% premium to August contract prices; DDR5 spot prices rose 6% month over month and traded at a 16% premium to contract prices. This indicates that the spot market remains strong, but the report distinguishes between “prices continuing to rise” and “whether the pace of increase continues to accelerate”: Goldman Sachs expects the industry DRAM average selling prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to rise approximately 17% quarter over quarter in 3Q26, but estimates the second-order change in price growth at approximately -20 percentage points, meaning that price levels are still rising while upward momentum is slowing. Following several months of expectation adjustments, market consensus for 3Q26 conventional memory contract prices is for 15% to 20% quarter-over-quarter growth, in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast. The AI server chain provides the main source of demand support. Combined monthly revenue for server ODMs such as Inventec, Quanta, Wiwynn, and Wistron increased 80% year over year and declined 4% month over month in July. The year-over-year growth was driven by ramping rack-level AI server shipments and strong ASIC AI server shipments. July revenue for Aspeed, a major global server BMC supplier, increased 98% year over year and 16% month over month, extending its record of more than 50% year-over-year growth to six consecutive months. Export data were also strong. Although Korean DRAM exports declined 3% month over month in July, they increased 394% year over year, the highest year-over-year growth since 2008. Citing MOTIE, the report attributes this performance to the large-scale adoption of AI and demand for memory products arising from the transition toward agentic AI. The consumer segment, however, provides a clear counter-signal. Chinese smartphone shipments declined 17% year over year and 36% month over month in June, ending two consecutive months of positive year-over-year growth; cumulative shipments in 1H26 declined 3% year over year, below the same period in 2025. Goldman Sachs’ Greater China Technology team expects shipments to decline 10% year over year in 3Q26, mainly because rising memory prices are weighing on end demand. This means that improved pricing for memory suppliers may simultaneously squeeze downstream device demand and profit margins. Revenue across Taiwan’s supply chain reflects the strong pass-through from rising DDR4 prices. Nanya Tech’s July revenue increased 720% year over year and 49% month over month, marking 12 consecutive months of triple-digit year-over-year growth; the report attributes this mainly to strong DDR4 price increases. Distributor Supreme Electronics’ July revenue increased 333% year over year and 25% month over month, further confirming the positive pass-through of prices to channel revenue. HBM is the report’s more structural bullish theme. Over the past month, sell-side consensus for SK Hynix’s 2027 HBM price growth rose from 32% year over year to 53%, while Goldman Sachs raised its own forecast from 50% to 100%. As of August 31, Goldman Sachs expects 2027 HBM shipments to grow 22%, below consensus of 31%, a difference of -9 percentage points; however, its price-growth forecast of 100% is significantly above consensus of 53%, a difference of 47 percentage points. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs’ 2027 HBM revenue forecast rose to US$63bn, 8% above consensus of US$58bn; its operating profit forecast rose to US$50bn, 21% above consensus of US$42bn. On August 2, Goldman Sachs had previously expected shipment growth of 29%, price growth of 50%, revenue of US$47bn, and operating profit of US$37bn; consensus at that time was 35%, 32%, US$52bn, and US$32bn, respectively, with differences in the table of -6 percentage points, 17 percentage points, -8%, and 16%, respectively. These revisions show that Goldman Sachs’ optimism for 2027 is driven primarily by pricing rather than shipment volume. Goldman Sachs’ 2026 HBM view is relatively more restrained. As of August 31, Goldman Sachs expects shipment growth of 43%, 8 percentage points above consensus of 35%; price growth of -13%, 20 percentage points below consensus growth of 7%; revenue of US$26bn, 11% below consensus of US$29bn; and operating profit of US$18bn, 6% below consensus of US$19bn. The corresponding August 2 forecasts were shipment growth of 36%, a 12% price decline, revenue of US$25bn, and operating profit of US$17bn, while consensus was 31%, 8% growth, US$29bn, and US$19bn, respectively, with differences in the table of 4 percentage points, -20 percentage points, -14%, and -10%. Goldman Sachs believes that tight HBM supply and demand and the widening price gap between conventional DRAM and HBM support its continued constructive view on 2027 HBM pricing. The company appendix provides a valuation and risk framework. Samsung Electronics common shares have a 12-month target price of W490,000, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using expected 2026–2027 EV/EBITDA; preferred shares have a target price of W360,000, calculated using a target discount of 27% relative to common shares. This discount is the average of the two-factor model result and the average market discount over the past month. Both common and preferred shares are rated Buy. SK Hynix has a 12-month target price of W3,500,000, based on average 2026 and 2027 earnings and a target P/E multiple of 9.0x. The report lists company-specific risks including deterioration in memory supply and demand, weak downstream demand, delays in technology migration, competition, and lower AI capital expenditure.

Analysis framework

The report first incorporates ten categories of data into its monthly DRAM sentiment indicator: daily spot prices, server ODM revenue, Aspeed revenue, Korean DRAM exports, Chinese smartphone shipments, Nanya Tech revenue, Supreme Electronics revenue, the second-order change in next-quarter industry DRAM average selling price growth, differences between 2026–2027 HBM consensus and Goldman Sachs forecasts, and channel checks and investor discussions. It then contrasts positive evidence from prices, AI servers, exports, and supply-chain revenue with weak smartphone demand and slowing price gains, before using supply and demand, long-term agreements, and divergence between HBM and conventional DRAM prices to explain why the overall conclusion remains moderately positive. Finally, the company appendix derives target prices using sum-of-the-parts valuation, P/E valuation, and a preferred-share discount methodology.

Methodology notes

• Cycle and business conditions frameworkCycle inflection analysis

  GS DRAM sentiment indicator and second-order change in average selling price growth

  The report combines ten high-frequency and monthly indicators to assess the industry’s direction and uses the second-order change in average selling price growth to distinguish between “prices still rising” and “price gains slowing,” thereby identifying changes in cycle momentum.

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkSupply-demand framework

  Tight HBM supply and demand and divergence between conventional DRAM and HBM prices

  The report uses tight HBM supply and demand, long-term agreement terms, and the price gap between the two memory categories to explain why 2027 HBM prices may outperform conventional DRAM.

• Event-driven dynamics and behavioral financeExpectation gap/expectation management

  Comparison of Goldman Sachs forecasts with Visible Alpha sell-side consensus

  The report compares Goldman Sachs forecasts, sell-side consensus, and forecasts from one month earlier to identify changes in market expectations and Goldman Sachs’ principal disagreements regarding 2027 HBM prices, revenue, and profit.

• Industry/sector analysis framework

  Channel checks and investor discussions

  Through channel checks and investor discussions, the report summarizes the differing views of bulls and bears regarding slowing prices, structural AI demand, and the protective role of long-term agreements.

• Valuation methodologySOTP valuation

  Samsung Electronics sum-of-the-parts valuation based on expected 2026–2027 EV/EBITDA

  The report applies EV/EBITDA valuation to different business segments to derive a 12-month target price of W490,000 for Samsung Electronics common shares.

• Valuation methodologyPE/PEG valuation

  SK Hynix valuation based on average 2026 and 2027 P/E

  The report applies a target P/E multiple of 9.0x to average 2026 and 2027 earnings to derive a 12-month target price of W3,500,000.

• Valuation methodology

  Preferred-share discount valuation relative to common shares

  Samsung Electronics preferred shares use a target discount of 27%, derived by averaging the discount from a two-factor model and the average market discount over the past month, corresponding to a target price of W360,000.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  DRAM/HBM supplier covered by the report; common shares are rated Buy with a 12-month target price of W490,000.

  Strengths

  The target price uses a 2026–2027 expected EV/EBITDA sum-of-the-parts valuation; industry-level AI demand, HBM supply and demand, and suppliers’ long-term agreements provide a positive backdrop.

  Weaknesses

  Conventional memory price gains are expected to slow, while smartphone demand is being weighed down by rising memory prices.

  Comparison

  The preferred-share target price is calculated using a target discount of 27% relative to common shares.

  Risks

  Significant deterioration in memory supply and demand, a sharp contraction in smartphone margins, and loss of mobile OLED market share.

• Samsung Electronics (Pref) (005935.KS)

  Samsung Electronics preferred shares covered by the report; rated Buy with a 12-month target price of W360,000.

  Strengths

  The target price is based on the common-share valuation and combines a two-factor model with the average discount over the past month.

  Weaknesses

  Its valuation is affected by both the fundamentals of the common shares and changes in the preferred shares’ relative discount.

  Comparison

  The target discount is 27% relative to common shares, whose target price is W490,000.

  Risks

  Significant deterioration in memory supply and demand, a sharp contraction in smartphone margins, and loss of mobile OLED market share.

• SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)

  The report focuses on comparing its 2026–2027 HBM forecasts with sell-side consensus and provides a 12-month target price of W3,500,000.

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs expects 2027 HBM prices to rise 100% year over year, with revenue of US$63bn and operating profit of US$50bn, all above consensus.

  Weaknesses

  Goldman Sachs forecasts 2027 HBM shipment growth of 22%, below consensus of 31%; its 2026 HBM price, revenue, and profit forecasts are also below consensus.

  Comparison

  The 2027 HBM price-growth forecast is 47 percentage points above consensus of 53%; the target price is calculated using 9.0x average 2026E/2027E P/E.

  Risks

  Deterioration in memory supply and demand, delays in technology migration, weak end demand, progress in Samsung’s HBM business, and lower AI-related capital expenditure.

Key data

• August 2026 DRAM sentiment indicatorModerately positiveSame direction as June 2026
• DDR4 spot price+7% mom; +43% premium to contract priceAugust 2026
• DDR5 spot price+6% mom; +16% premium to contract priceAugust 2026
• Server ODM revenue+80% yoy, -4% momJuly 2026, driven by ramping AI server shipments
• Aspeed revenue+98% yoy, +16% momJuly 2026; more than 50% year-over-year growth for six consecutive months
• Korean DRAM exports+394% yoy, -3% momJuly 2026; highest year-over-year growth since 2008
• Chinese smartphone shipments-17% yoy, -36% momJune 2026; cumulative 1H26 shipments declined 3% year over year
• 3Q26 Chinese smartphone forecast-10% yoyGoldman Sachs Greater China Technology team forecast; rising memory prices weigh on end demand
• Nanya Tech revenue+720% yoy, +49% momJuly 2026; triple-digit year-over-year growth for 12 consecutive months
• Supreme Electronics revenue+333% yoy, +25% momJuly 2026
• 3Q26 industry DRAM average selling priceApproximately +17% qoqGoldman Sachs’ latest estimates for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
• Second-order change in DRAM average selling price growthApproximately -20 percentage pointsPrices are expected to continue rising in 3Q26, but at a slower rate
• 3Q26 conventional memory contract-price consensus+15% to +20% qoqIn line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast
• SK Hynix 2027 HBM price growthGSe +100% yoy; consensus +53% yoyOne month earlier, the figures were +50% and +32%, respectively
• SK Hynix 2027 HBM revenueGSe US$63bn; consensus US$58bnGoldman Sachs’ forecast is 8% above consensus
• SK Hynix 2027 HBM operating profitGSe US$50bn; consensus US$42bnGoldman Sachs’ forecast is 21% above consensus
• Samsung Electronics common and preferred share target pricesW490,000; W360,000Both are 12-month target prices, and the report rates both share classes Buy
• SK Hynix target priceW3,500,00012-month target price based on 9.0x average 2026E/2027E P/E

Impact & implications

The report presents a divergence in which “conventional memory prices are still rising but momentum is slowing, while HBM has structurally stronger pricing.” AI servers, exports, and Taiwan supply-chain revenue support the DRAM cycle, while declining smartphone demand shows that price increases can also suppress end demand. Goldman Sachs believes tight HBM supply and demand and more favorable long-term agreement terms could reduce suppliers’ downside exposure relative to previous cycles; its 2027 SK Hynix HBM revenue and profit forecasts are above consensus mainly because of significantly higher price assumptions rather than higher shipment assumptions.

Risks

• A significant deterioration in memory supply and demand would hurt Samsung Electronics’ and SK Hynix’s pricing, revenue, and profit.
• Delays in technology migration could weaken SK Hynix’s product progress and earnings performance.
• Weaker-than-expected smartphone, PC, or server demand would reduce overall demand for conventional memory.
• A sharp contraction in smartphone margins is an explicit downside risk to Samsung Electronics’ target price.
• Loss of mobile OLED market share is an explicit downside risk for Samsung Electronics.
• Positive progress in Samsung Electronics’ HBM business could affect SK Hynix’s HBM revenue and profit.
• Lower AI-related capital expenditure would weaken HBM demand and affect SK Hynix’s HBM revenue and profit.

What to watch

• Track monthly changes in DDR4 and DDR5 spot prices and their premiums to contract prices.
• Track server ODM and Aspeed revenue to assess shipment momentum for AI and ASIC servers.
• Track whether Korean DRAM exports can sustain high year-over-year growth.
• Track Chinese smartphone shipments and the impact of rising memory prices on 3Q26 end demand.
• Track Nanya Tech and Supreme Electronics revenue to observe price pass-through to suppliers and distribution channels.
• Track whether 3Q26 conventional memory contract prices meet market expectations for 15% to 20% quarter-over-quarter growth.
• Track the second-order change in industry DRAM average selling price growth to assess whether price-increase momentum continues to weaken.
• Track changes among 2027 HBM price consensus, Goldman Sachs’ forecast, and supply-demand conditions.
• Track the terms of suppliers’ long-term agreements and whether they can provide the downside protection described in the report.