South Korea’s April memory exports surge 278% y/y to a record high; Goldman Sachs maintains buy rating

Overview

Goldman Sachs tracks South Korea’s April 2026 tech product export data, showing that memory chip exports have continued their strong growth, hitting a record high, while other categories such as displays and batteries have performed weakly. The report infers HBM shipment trends from import-export data and updates earnings forecasts and target prices for relevant companies, remaining optimistic about the memory supply chain overall.

Core views

Explosive growth in memory exports: In April, memory exports rose 278% y/y, the highest growth rate since tracking began in 2008, maintaining over 200% growth for three consecutive months. DRAM exports increased by 343%, NAND chips by 289%, and SSD exports soared by 715%. South Korea’s Ministry of Trade attributes this robust performance to oversupply in the memory market and rising prices. Mixed signals on HBM production: By monitoring Japanese imports of materials to South Korea’s HBM manufacturing bases, we find that Samsung Electronics’ imports of HBM-related materials (plastic films) rose 123% y/y in March, indicating active production; SK Hynix’s related materials (epoxy resins) fell 67% y/y, but its overall HBM shipment chart shows accelerating growth in Q1 2026. The report views these import figures as reliable proxies for HBM shipment volumes. Other categories underperform: OLED exports declined 5% y/y, MLCC exports dropped 4% y/y (ending 12 months of growth), and lithium battery exports fell 10% y/y. Overall exports contracted by 3%, largely due to inventory digestion in the LCD segment and shipment adjustments by OLED customers. Updated earnings forecasts: We expect SK Hynix’s Q2 2026 revenue to rise 267% y/y, and Samsung Electronics’ memory revenue to jump 442% y/y, with the latter benefiting from greater exposure to traditional memory products and a lower base for HBM revenue.

Analysis framework

The report employs a high-frequency import-export data tracking methodology, with the core logic being the use of upstream key raw material flows—such as epoxy resins and plastic films—from Japan to specific manufacturing bases in South Korea as proxies for midstream HBM production and shipments. It also combines official export value data to perform volume-price decomposition, assessing cyclical changes and drivers across sub-segments.

Methodology notes

• industry/sector analysis frameworkupstream–midstream–downstream supply chain transmission

  inferring midstream production and shipments from upstream material import data

  The report leverages data on key materials exported from Japan to South Korea’s HBM production sites as leading indicators of actual HBM output, illustrating the logical flow of information along the supply chain.

• industry/sector analysis frameworksupply-and-demand framework

  analyzing the sales and pricing factors behind export value growth

  The report attributes export growth to excess demand and rising prices, using supply-and-demand dynamics to explain the rapid expansion of memory chip exports—a classic application of the supply-and-demand analytical framework.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  benefits from rising memory prices and expanding HBM production

  Strengths

  high exposure to traditional memory products; low HBM revenue base provides significant upside potential

  Weaknesses

  risk of margin compression in smartphones; loss of market share in mobile OLED

  Comparison

  expects faster memory revenue growth than SK Hynix

  Risks

  deterioration in memory supply and demand; smartphone margin contraction

• SK Hynix (000660.KS)

  profits from robust HBM demand and surging memory exports

  Strengths

  leading HBM technology; expects strong revenue growth in Q2 2026

  Weaknesses

  risk of delays in technology migration; traditional memory demand influenced by end markets

  Comparison

  HBM business progress poses potential competitive pressure from Samsung Electronics

  Risks

  reduced AI-related capital spending; weaker-than-expected HBM demand

• Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS)

  AI server/automotive MLCC demand supports revenue

  Strengths

  strong ongoing demand for AI server and automotive MLCC

  Weaknesses

  risk of increasing industry-wide MLCC supply

  Comparison

  despite negative MLCC export growth, the company still expects revenue increases

  Risks

  rising MLCC supply; weakening demand from AI servers and smartphones

• LG Display (034220.KS)

  struggles with weak display exports and reduced LCD business

  Strengths

  none

  Weaknesses

  LCD business contraction; OLED customer shipment adjustments

  Comparison

  underperforms relative to the memory sector

  Risks

  fluctuations in IT LCD panel prices; volatility in TV OLED shipments

Key data

• April memory exports y/y+278%the highest growth rate since 2008
• April DRAM exports y/y+343%a continuation of triple-digit growth
• April NAND exports y/y+289%six consecutive months of triple-digit growth
• April SSD exports y/y+715%particularly strong performance
• Samsung Electronics’ HBM-related material imports (March) y/y+123%a sharp increase in plastic film imports
• SK Hynix’s HBM-related material imports (March) y/y-67%a decline in epoxy resin imports
• April MLCC exports y/y-4%ending 12 months of growth
• April lithium battery exports y/y-10%a return to decline after a brief rebound

Impact & implications

The sustained uptrend in memory market conditions directly benefits Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, boosting their revenue and profit flexibility, especially as HBM production capacity comes online. Although Samsung Electro-Mechanics has seen MLCC exports turn negative, demand from AI servers and automotive applications continues to support its Q2 2026 revenue outlook. The display panel sector faces near-term pressure, and LG Display’s revenue forecast is lowered as it scales back its LCD business.

Risks

• severe deterioration in memory supply and demand
• sharp contraction in smartphone margins
• loss of market share in mobile OLED
• delays in technology migration
• weakening demand from smartphones, PCs, and servers
• reduced AI-related capital expenditure
• unexpected acceleration in industry-wide MLCC supply

What to watch

• subsequent monthly export data trends
• HBM material import patterns (epoxy resins and plastic films)
• memory price movements
• sustained demand for AI server and automotive MLCC