South Korea's multi-chip memory exports were strong in March, pointing to mid-teens QoQ HBM revenue growth for Samsung and SK hynix in 1Q26

Overview

This report uses South Korean customs and KITA multi-chip memory export data to track HBM revenue trends for Samsung and SK hynix. Bernstein believes the March data improved further on top of February's strength, with 1Q26 HBM export performance better than expected: Samsung was broadly in line with the model, while SK hynix showed clear upside revision potential. The report also discusses HBM pricing, traditional memory price increases, export destinations including Taiwan and Malaysia, and future shifts in HBM4 share.

Core views

The core views are: first, South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia are a good leading indicator of quarterly HBM revenue for Samsung and SK hynix; second, March exports continued to strengthen, supporting mid-teens QoQ growth in 1Q26 HBM revenue; third, Samsung's position in HBM4 is improving, and it may gradually gain share as HBM4 ramps; fourth, SK hynix exports rebounded significantly in February and March, possibly due to some orders shifting to Blackwell and HBM3E because of Rubin delays; fifth, traditional memory prices remain stronger than expected in the short term, but may peak in 1H27 and gradually normalize from 2H27 into 2028.

Analysis framework

The report uses monthly South Korean export data, origin, destination, and export value per weight as proxy variables, mapping them respectively to Samsung's exports from South Chungcheong and SK hynix's exports from North Chungcheong and Icheon, and uses historical regression relationships to estimate quarterly HBM revenue. The analysis also compares export value and value per weight across destinations such as Taiwan, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and mainland China to judge which regions are more likely associated with HBM rather than mobile DRAM or NAND packaging.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency data trackingSouth Korean multi-chip memory exports as a proxy for HBM revenue

  Use South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia as a leading indicator of HBM revenue for Samsung and SK hynix.

  The report argues these exports are highly correlated with HBM revenue for the two companies because Taiwan mainly corresponds to the CoWoS packaging chain, while Malaysia may be linked to high-end packaging.

• Company mappingExport origin mapping

  South Chungcheong corresponds to Samsung, while North Chungcheong and Icheon correspond to SK hynix.

  Samsung's HBM packaging is mainly located in South Chungcheong; SK hynix HBM exports come almost entirely from North Chungcheong and Icheon.

• Price proxyExport value per weight

  Use the direction of value per weight to observe changes in HBM ASP and product mix.

  HBM has a high value per unit weight, so rising export value per weight can indicate changes in pricing, generation, or HBM mix, but the report emphasizes that this metric is suitable only for directional judgment and cannot precisely estimate prices.

• Regression estimationHistorical regression of exports and HBM revenue

  Use the historical relationship between exports and company HBM revenue to estimate 1Q26 revenue.

  Samsung's regression estimate is about US$3.9B, up 17% QoQ; SK hynix's regression estimate is about US$6.6B, up 16% QoQ.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics Co Ltd / 005930.KS

  Core beneficiary; South Chungcheong exports are a proxy for its HBM revenue.

  Strengths

  1Q26 HBM revenue is expected at about US$3.9B, QoQ +17%; exports to Malaysia mainly come from Samsung; HBM4 positioning is improving, and it may gain share in the future.

  Weaknesses

  Initial HBM4 volumes are still small and have not yet been clearly reflected in value per weight.

  Comparison

  Relative to SK hynix, the recent value-per-weight trend is more positive, and the report believes Samsung is catching up with or even leading in HBM4.

  Risks

  If HBM packaging moves out of South Korea or is consumed domestically in South Korea, export data will underestimate actual shipments; if the memory price cycle ends earlier than expected, target prices would come under pressure.

• SK Hynix Inc / 000660.KS

  Core beneficiary; exports from North Chungcheong and Icheon are a proxy for its HBM revenue.

  Strengths

  Exports were strong in February and March, with the regression pointing to 1Q26 HBM revenue of about US$6.6B, QoQ +16%, materially better than the model.

  Weaknesses

  Value per weight has trended down or flat since mid-2025; the report believes Samsung may gradually take share in HBM4.

  Comparison

  Near-term 1Q26 revenue revision upside is stronger than Samsung's, but medium-term competitive pressure on HBM4 share is more pronounced.

  Risks

  New HBM3E contract prices are down about 20% QoQ; if order shifts are only a short-term effect of Rubin delays, durability still needs to be verified.

• Micron Technology Inc / MU

  A beneficiary of the global memory upcycle.

  Strengths

  HBM demand and traditional memory price increases jointly support industry earnings, and Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  The main data in the report primarily tracks South Korean exports, providing less direct validation for Micron.

  Comparison

  Compared with Samsung and SK hynix, the report's conclusion on Micron is driven more by the global memory cycle view than by South Korean export proxy data.

  Risks

  If traditional memory prices peak after 1H27 and then decline, earnings leverage may weaken.

• KIOXIA Holdings Corp / 285A.JP

  A covered name in the memory sector, but the report maintains a negative view.

  Strengths

  There is upside risk if NAND demand is stronger than expected, policy support increases, or costs decline more than expected.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein remains cautious due to competition from China and valuation, with an Underperform rating.

  Comparison

  Compared with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, KIOXIA is not one of the report's structural bullish calls.

  Risks

  Chinese memory competition, valuation pressure, and changes in the price cycle.

Key data

• South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia in MarchUS$4.2B, MoM +14%, YoY +94%1Q26 as a whole increased 15% versus 4Q25, indicating continued strength in HBM exports.
• Samsung-related exportsSouth Chungcheong 1Q26 exports QoQ +19%The regression points to Samsung 1Q26 HBM revenue of about US$3.9B, QoQ +17%, in line with Bernstein's forecast.
• SK hynix-related exportsNorth Chungcheong + Icheon 1Q26 exports QoQ +13%The regression points to SK hynix 1Q26 HBM revenue of about US$6.6B, QoQ +16%, better than the model forecast of QoQ -20%.
• South Korea total multi-chip memory exportsMarch US$8.6B, MoM +27%, QoQ +39%The growth may have been driven mainly by rising traditional memory prices; Taiwan and Malaysia accounted for 49% of total exports.
• Exports to MalaysiaAbout US$0.6B in MarchDown from the February peak, but still above November and December last year, and mainly contributed by Samsung.
• HBM pricing signalExport value per weight rose slightly MoMIt does not yet show a clear signal of meaningful HBM4 volume ramp or price increases; HBM pricing is relatively more stable than traditional memory price volatility.

Impact & implications

The report's implications for the memory sector are moderately positive. For Samsung, 1Q26 performance is in line with expectations, and Malaysia exports plus HBM4 progress support improving customer acceptance and share gains. For SK hynix, there is upside revision potential for 1Q26 HBM revenue, with near-term data better than the model. For Micron, strong industry HBM and memory demand are supportive. For KIOXIA, Bernstein remains cautious due to competition from China and valuation. At the macro level, increased AI projects continue to support HBM demand, but traditional memory prices may gradually return to normal in the future as supply is released and demand destruction emerges.

Risks

• South Korean export data cannot capture shipments if Samsung or SK hynix move HBM packaging outside South Korea.
• If HBM is further packaged into other products within South Korea, export data also cannot reflect that portion of demand.
• HBM export value per weight can only provide a directional indication of pricing and mix changes, and cannot precisely estimate ASP.
• If traditional memory prices peak early due to weaker demand or increased supply, it will weaken earnings and valuation for the memory sector.
• China's progress in memory, especially NAND, may create competitive pressure.
• SK hynix's recent strength may be affected by Rubin delays and short-term order shifts, and durability still needs to be monitored.

What to watch

• Whether South Korea's multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia remain elevated in April and beyond.
• Whether exports from South Chungcheong, North Chungcheong, and Icheon continue to cover almost all HBM-related exports.
• Whether exports to Malaysia continue to stay around the US$0.5B-0.6B monthly level, and whether they are related to Intel EMIB and advanced packaging capacity.
• Whether HBM4 shipments begin to drive a clear rise in export value per weight.
• Whether Samsung continues to gain share during the HBM4 volume ramp.
• Whether traditional memory prices continue to exceed expectations after 2Q26, and whether they peak around 1H27.