DRAM sentiment indicator remains mildly positive, with 1Q26 contract prices likely to rise clearly

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs industry research on DRAM market sentiment, with the core conclusion that the DRAM sentiment indicator in January 2026 continues to be mildly positive. The report uses data points such as spot prices, server ODM revenue, Aspeed revenue, South Korea DRAM exports, China smartphone shipments, Nanya Tech and Supreme Electronics revenue, the second derivative of DRAM ASP, comparison of 2026 Hynix HBM consensus versus GSe, and channel checks to assess that short-term DRAM contract prices have strong upside potential.

Core views

The report argues that DRAM sector short-term momentum is supported by both pricing and demand. On the pricing side, DDR5 spot prices have rebounded sharply since the start of the year, while DDR4 spot prices have continued rising since September 2024; the premium to December contract prices implies a high probability of higher 1Q26 contract pricing. On the demand side, the ramp in AI server shipments has driven high growth in Taiwan server ODM revenue, South Korea DRAM exports remain strong, and China smartphone shipments are up year on year but roughly flat cumulatively since the start of the year. At the company level, Nanya Tech revenue acceleration is pronounced, and Supreme Electronics revenue is up year on year. Channel feedback suggests the market continues to raise expectations for higher 1Q26 traditional memory prices, which may lead to further upward revisions to short-term earnings expectations for memory names.

Analysis framework

The report applies a multi-indicator sentiment framework, combining price, revenue, export, end-demand, industry ASP shifts, HBM consensus variance, and channel checks to evaluate DRAM market direction. Pricing indicators are used to gauge contract pricing negotiation pressure, while revenue and export indicators validate demand strength. HBM consensus variance compares Goldman Sachs forecasts with market consensus, and channel checks supplement customer price acceptance and investor sentiment.

Methodology notes

• Industry sentiment indicatorGS DRAM Sentiment Indicator

  Assesses the DRAM market sentiment direction through multiple high-frequency and monthly data points.

  The indicator includes daily DRAM spot prices, server ODM monthly revenue, Aspeed monthly revenue, South Korea DRAM export revenue, China smartphone shipments, Nanya Tech revenue, Supreme Electronics revenue, next-quarter DRAM ASP growth second derivative, 2026 Hynix HBM consensus versus GSe comparison, and channel checks plus investor meeting feedback.

• Valuation methodologyEV/EBITDA-based SOTP

  Samsung Electronics common share target price is derived using a 2026E EV/EBITDA-based SOTP method.

  The report gives a 12-month target price of W180,000 for Samsung Electronics common shares and W142,000 for preferred shares; the preferred share target assumes a 21% discount to the common share target.

• Valuation methodologyPB valuation

  SK Hynix target price is based on a 2026E P/B methodology.

  The report uses the peak cycle P/B multiple in storage, adds AI premium, and arrives at a 2.8x target P/B and W700,000 target price for SK Hynix.

• Company factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs compares stock characteristics across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  Growth is based on forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; Financial Returns are based on ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; Multiple is based on valuation metrics including P/E, P/B, dividend yield, EV/EBITDA, and EV/FCF; Integrated is the combined percentile of growth, returns, and the inverse of valuation.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• DRAM industry

  The primary coverage focus, with the report judging sentiment in January as mildly positive.

  Strengths

  Spot prices have surged, South Korea exports are strong, AI server demand supports server ODM revenue, and channel quotes have been raised.

  Weaknesses

  Cumulative China smartphone shipments have been broadly flat since the start of the year, so traditional end demand is not uniformly strong.

  Comparison

  DDR5 and DDR4 spot prices trade at premiums of 76% and 172%, respectively, versus December contract prices, indicating clear upward pricing pressure.

  Risks

  Deteriorating supply-demand balance, weaker customer acceptance, weaker end demand, or unsustainable price increases.

• SK Hynix Inc.

  One of the main memory beneficiaries in scope; the report references a Buy rating and W700,000 target price.

  Strengths

  AI premium from HBM business growth; the report expects 2026 HBM shipment growth to be 9 percentage points above consensus.

  Weaknesses

  Goldman Sachs forecasts for HBM price growth, HBM revenue, and HBM operating profit are below consensus.

  Comparison

  Relative to Samsung Electronics, the report grants SK Hynix an AI premium in valuation.

  Risks

  Deteriorating storage supply-demand balance, delayed technology migration, weaker-than-expected smartphone/PC/server demand, improving Samsung HBM execution, and lower AI capex.

• Samsung Electronics

  The report references a Buy rating and provides target prices for common and preferred shares.

  Strengths

  Rising DRAM contract prices can support storage business earnings expectations; 1Q26E blended DRAM ASP is estimated to rise about 50% sequentially.

  Weaknesses

  Reported risks include sharp compression in smartphone margins and loss of smartphone OLED market share.

  Comparison

  Common share target price is W180,000 and preferred share target price is W142,000, with the preferred target based on a 21% discount to common.

  Risks

  Severe storage supply-demand deterioration, smartphone margin compression, and mobile OLED market-share loss.

• Nanya Tech

  As a Taiwan DRAM supplier, it is a key sample reflecting the strong DDR4 pricing backdrop.

  Strengths

  December revenue rose 445% yoy, with three-digit growth for 5 consecutive months and further acceleration.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is mainly driven by strong DDR4 pricing and is sensitive to the price cycle.

  Comparison

  From August to December, yoy growth accelerated from +141% to +445%, materially stronger than typical end-demand data.

  Risks

  DDR4 price pullback, slower channel stocking, or weakening traditional demand.

• Server ODM and Aspeed

  Used to validate AI server demand and health of the server chain.

  Strengths

  Taiwan server ODM December revenue was up 94% yoy, and Aspeed revenue was up 18% yoy.

  Weaknesses

  Aspeed's yoy growth is built on a high prior-year base, and future growth may be affected by base effects.

  Comparison

  Server ODM has achieved over 50% yoy growth for 13 consecutive months, outperforming China smartphone shipment trends.

  Risks

  AI server shipment ramp may disappoint, and cloud provider capex may slow.

• NAND

  Mentioned in channel checks, with some customers accepting 1Q26 NAND quote increases higher than 4Q25.

  Strengths

  Together with DRAM, it benefits from customers accepting higher 1Q26 pricing.

  Weaknesses

  The report remains DRAM-focused, and NAND disclosure is relatively limited.

  Comparison

  Channel feedback indicates 1Q26 price increases for DRAM and NAND are both materially above achieved 4Q25 levels.

  Risks

  The breadth and durability of repricing need further confirmation from customer acceptance.

Key data

• DDR5 spot price premium76% above December contract priceAs of January 22, DDR5 spot prices have rebounded sharply since the start of the year.
• DDR4 spot price premium172% above December contract priceDDR4 spot prices have been rising steadily since September 2024.
• Taiwan server ODM December revenue+94% yoy, +12% momInventec, Quanta, Wiwynn, and Wistron revenues are supported by a ramp in rack-level AI server shipments.
• Aspeed December revenue+18% yoy, +4% momIt still posted growth despite a high base of +131% yoy in December 2024.
• South Korea DRAM export revenue+72% yoy, +23% momGrowth is driven by DRAM price increases supported by tight supply.
• China smartphone November shipments+2% yoy, -8% momYear-on-year growth has continued for five consecutive months, but cumulative shipments from January to November are broadly flat.
• Nanya Tech December revenue+445% yoy, +18% momThree-digit yoy growth has continued for 5 consecutive months, with Aug-Dec yoy growth of +141%, +158%, +262%, +365%, and +445%.
• Supreme Electronics December revenue+32% yoy, +8% momRevenue from Taiwan distributors remains up year on year.
• Samsung Electronics 1Q26E DRAM blended ASPabout +50% qoqGoldman Sachs estimates the quarter-on-quarter second derivative of ASP growth at about +7 percentage points based on this.
• 2026 Hynix HBM shipment growthGSe +47%, consensus +38%, variance +9ppGoldman Sachs expects HBM shipment growth to be above consensus.
• 2026 Hynix HBM price growthGSe -14%, consensus +3%, variance -17ppGoldman Sachs is more conservative than consensus on HBM prices, as it expects a meaningful markdown in HBM3E 12-Hi prices.
• 2026 Hynix HBM revenueGSe US$27bn, consensus US$32bn, variance -16%Revenue forecast is below consensus.
• 2026 Hynix HBM operating profitGSe US$17bn, consensus US$20bn, variance -13%Operating profit forecast is below consensus.

Impact & implications

If DDR5 and DDR4 spot prices remain above contract prices and customers accept higher 1Q26 quotes, DRAM contract prices and short-term earnings expectations for memory suppliers could be revised upward further. AI server-related demand remains the key source of demand resilience, while HBM price expectations, traditional end demand, and a worsening supply-demand balance remain the main variables to monitor.

Risks

• Major deterioration in storage supply-demand conditions.
• Smartphone, PC, or server demand weaker than expected, dragging on traditional storage demand.
• Delayed technology migration affecting cost, supply, and product competitiveness.
• HBM price declines larger than expected, weighing on HBM revenue and profits.
• AI-related capital expenditure declines, affecting HBM and server demand.
• Improved Samsung HBM execution could alter SK Hynix relative advantage.
• Samsung smartphone margins compress sharply or mobile OLED market share is lost.
• Spot price increases fail to pass through sufficiently into contract prices, or customer acceptance is lower than suggested by channel checks.

What to watch

• Final negotiated outcomes for 1Q26 DRAM and NAND contract prices.
• Whether the premium of DDR5 and DDR4 spot prices versus contract prices is sustained.
• Subsequent monthly data for Taiwan server ODM, Aspeed, and South Korea DRAM exports.
• Whether Nanya Tech revenue growth continues at elevated levels.
• Whether China smartphone shipments shift from broadly flat cumulatively to improving.
• Changes in 2026 Hynix HBM shipment, price, revenue, and operating profit expectations relative to consensus.
• AI server shipment ramp and the pace of AI capex by cloud providers.
• Whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix target prices, ratings, and earnings forecasts are adjusted due to upward revisions in memory pricing.