South Korea Tech March export tracker: Strong memory export growth continues

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' tracker of South Korea's technology-sector export data for March 2026, using MOTIE and TRASS data and covering proxy indicators for memory, OLED/LCD displays, lithium batteries, MLCC, and HBM-related material imports. Overall, South Korea's major technology exports were firm in March, with memory, MLCC, and lithium batteries all posting yoy growth, while display exports edged down slightly yoy.

Core views

The core view is that memory remains the strongest theme: March memory exports rose 220% yoy and 1Q26 memory exports rose 212% yoy, suggesting South Korean memory makers likely posted strong 1Q26 revenue. AI demand and rising memory prices support broad-based growth in DRAM, NAND, and SSD. MLCC has returned to double-digit yoy growth, and lithium battery exports have rebounded meaningfully; by contrast, the display segment is under short-term pressure due to weak OLED.

Analysis framework

The report uses monthly and quarterly export data tracking, linking yoy and mom changes in export values across major South Korean technology categories with company revenue outlooks, and uses import data for HBM-related materials into specific Japanese-to-Korean production sites as proxy indicators for Hynix and SEC HBM shipment scale.

Methodology notes

• Industry Data TrackingMOTIE/TRASS export data

  Track technology product export trends using South Korea's official trade data

  The report uses MOTIE and TRASS data to observe yoy changes in export values for memory, displays, MLCC, and lithium batteries, and uses them to judge the quarterly revenue trends of related South Korean technology companies.

• Alternative Data Proxy IndicatorHBM materials import proxy indicator

  Estimate HBM shipment scale using material import values into South Korean production sites from Japan

  The report tracks epoxide resin imports from Japan to Icheon/Cheongju as a proxy for Hynix HBM shipments, and tracks plastic film imports from Japan to Hwaseong/Pyeongtaek as a proxy for SEC HBM shipments.

• Valuation MethodologyP/B, EV/EBITDA, and SOTP

  Multiple company target prices use P/B, EV/EBITDA, or SOTP frameworks

  SK Hynix uses the average 2026E/27E P/B valuation; Samsung Electronics and Samsung Electro-Mechanics use EV/EBITDA-driven SOTP; LG Display uses 12-month forward P/B valuation.

• Stock Factor FrameworkGS Factor Profile

  Assess stock characteristics using growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile builds percentiles from sales, EBITDA, EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA metrics for relative stock comparison.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SK Hynix Inc.

  A core beneficiary of South Korea's memory and HBM exposure

  Strengths

  Memory exports grew strongly yoy, Hynix-related HBM materials import proxy indicators rose 424% yoy in February, and Goldman Sachs sets a W1,350,000 target price with a Buy rating.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to memory supply-demand conditions, technology transitions, and AI-related capex.

  Comparison

  Compared with SEC, Hynix-related HBM materials import proxy indicators are stronger, and the report shows Hynix's HBM shipment proxy is highly correlated with materials import trends.

  Risks

  Deterioration in memory supply-demand, delays in technology migration, weaker smartphone/PC/server demand, better-than-expected Samsung HBM progress, and lower AI-related capex.

• Samsung Electronics

  A large-cap covered company tied to memory, HBM, and the display chain

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs expects SEC memory revenue to grow 248% yoy in 1Q26, driven by greater exposure to conventional memory; the common share target price is W260,000, the preferred share target price is W200,000, and the rating is Buy.

  Weaknesses

  In February, SEC-related plastic film imports fell 30% yoy, leaving its HBM proxy weaker than Hynix's in the near term.

  Comparison

  SEC has higher exposure to conventional memory, and expected memory revenue growth is higher than Hynix's; however, its HBM materials import proxy is not as strong as Hynix's.

  Risks

  A sharp deterioration in memory supply-demand, a significant contraction in smartphone margins, and loss of share in the mobile OLED market.

• Samsung Electro-Mechanics

  A beneficiary of MLCC growth

  Strengths

  MLCC exports rose 14% yoy in March and 10% yoy in 1Q26; Goldman Sachs expects 1Q26 MLCC revenue to grow 13% yoy, supported by AI server and automotive MLCC demand, with a Buy rating and a W480,000 target price.

  Weaknesses

  MLCC exports fell 4% qoq in 1Q26, showing that quarterly momentum is not a one-way improvement.

  Comparison

  Compared with the display segment, MLCC returned to double-digit yoy growth in March and showed a more resilient cyclical profile.

  Risks

  Unexpectedly strong industry MLCC supply growth and weaker-than-expected demand from AI servers, autos, and smartphones.

• LG Display

  A display panel covered company

  Strengths

  LCD exports rose 29% yoy, and new notebook launches had a positive impact on LCD exports.

  Weaknesses

  OLED exports fell 10% yoy, and Goldman Sachs expects LG Display revenue to decline 10% yoy in 1Q26 due to a shrinking LCD panel business.

  Comparison

  The display segment is overall weaker than memory and MLCC; Samsung Display is expected to post 2% yoy revenue growth, while LG Display is expected to decline 10% yoy.

  Risks

  IT LCD panel price volatility, and TV OLED shipments above or below expectations.

• Li-ion batteries

  A tracked category in South Korea's technology export data

  Strengths

  Exports rose 60% yoy in March and 21% yoy in 1Q26, ending 10 consecutive quarters of yoy declines.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a specific battery-company rating or target price, so the investment mapping is more indirect.

  Comparison

  The rebound in lithium batteries is stronger than the display and MLCC segments, but weaker than the triple-digit growth in memory exports.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected ramp-up of new products, changes in mineral prices, and fluctuations in end-demand.

Key data

• March memory exports+220% yoyThree straight months of triple-digit yoy growth.
• March DRAM exports+265% yoySupported by memory prices and AI demand.
• March NAND chip exports+383% yoyA particularly strong growth item highlighted in the report.
• March SSD exports+219% yoySSD is classified under computers rather than memory under MTI standards.
• 1Q26 memory exports+212% yoyGoldman Sachs sees this as a sign that Korean memory companies may post strong 1Q26 results.
• February Hynix-related epoxide resin imports+424% yoyJapan to Icheon/Cheongju, used as a proxy indicator for Hynix HBM shipments.
• February SEC-related plastic film imports-30% yoyJapan to Hwaseong/Pyeongtaek, used as a proxy indicator for SEC HBM shipments.
• March display exports-2% yoyOLED fell 10% yoy, while LCD rose 29% yoy.
• March MLCC exports+14% yoyRecovered from near-flat growth in February to double-digit yoy growth.
• March lithium battery exports+60% yoyDriven by ramp-up of new products and higher mineral prices.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, the data are most directly positive for South Korea's memory supply chain, especially Hynix and Samsung Electronics, which benefit from AI demand, HBM, and improving conventional memory conditions. The recovery in MLCC growth supports Samsung Electro-Mechanics' revenue resilience; the end of the long decline in lithium battery exports helps improve the industry outlook, although the report does not provide a specific battery-company rating. The display segment is relatively mixed, with LCD improving but OLED under pressure from conservative customer production plans.

Risks

• Deterioration in memory supply-demand or delays in technology migration.
• Demand for smartphones, PCs, and servers coming in weaker than expected, hurting conventional memory demand.
• Lower AI-related capex, affecting HBM demand, revenue, and profitability.
• Progress in Samsung's HBM business could alter Hynix's competitive landscape.
• OLED demand affected by conservative customer production plans and geopolitical conflict.
• MLCC supply growth exceeding expectations or AI server, automotive, and smartphone demand falling short.
• The rebound in lithium battery exports may be influenced by price swings and temporary new-product ramp effects.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent monthly South Korea memory exports can continue to post triple-digit yoy growth.
• How the price and volume contributions of DRAM, NAND chips, and SSD exports evolve.
• Trends in epoxide resin imports from Japan to Icheon/Cheongju as a way to monitor Hynix HBM momentum.
• Trends in plastic film imports from Japan to Hwaseong/Pyeongtaek as a way to monitor SEC HBM recovery.
• Whether 1Q26 Hynix and Samsung Electronics memory revenue meets Goldman Sachs' expectations.
• Whether OLED exports recover from the March yoy decline and whether LCD improvement is sustainable.
• Whether MLCC can maintain double-digit growth driven by AI server and automotive demand.
• Whether lithium battery exports can keep improving after ending 10 quarters of declines.