Global memory semiconductor industry, with a focus on Korean HBM exports: August export data points to Samsung extending its HBM lead while SK hynix's HBM4 ramp remains delayed

Overview

Bernstein uses August Korean customs exports as an early indicator of same-quarter HBM revenue. The tracker shows robust aggregate HBM momentum but a sharp company divergence: Samsung's exports, mix and implied HBM4 ramp were substantially stronger than SK hynix's, potentially allowing Samsung to take the HBM share lead in 3Q26.

Core views

Aggregate HBM indicators remained strong in August. Korean multichip-memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia, which Bernstein treats as the principal destinations for Korean HBM, rebounded 19% MoM after July's seasonal decline. They were 17% higher than May and 77% higher YoY. The report interprets this as continued strong HBM momentum into 3Q26, although the product category also contains mobile DRAM and NAND packages and therefore requires origin and destination filters. Samsung's indicators were much stronger than Bernstein expected. Exports from South Chungcheong, where Samsung's back-end facilities package HBM, recovered 30% MoM to US$2.8B in August and were 61% above May. Combined July-August exports were up 83% QoQ. A regression against historical HBM revenue indicates approximately US$11.4B of Samsung HBM revenue in 3Q26, representing 72% QoQ growth and exceeding Bernstein's US$9.3B forecast by about 23%. A regression limited to data since 1Q25 gives a broadly similar result. Samsung's exports have also been strongly back-end loaded since 1Q25, with the first month averaging less than 20% of the quarterly total, so Bernstein expects further sequential export growth in September. The strength is consistent with Samsung's guidance for HBM4 sales to rise more than threefold QoQ in 3Q26 and for HBM4 to account for well over 60% of its HBM sales in 2H26. The picture for SK hynix remained substantially weaker. Because Korea Customs stopped disclosing ten-digit HS-code data at the city level on September 1, Bernstein replaced Icheon data with data for the wider Gyeonggi Province, whose historical Taiwan-and-Malaysia exports closely resembled Icheon's. Combined exports from North Chungcheong and Gyeonggi rose only 7% MoM and remained 21% below May; July-August exports were also down 21% QoQ. The central regression points to US$5.9B of SK hynix HBM revenue in 3Q26, about 14% below 2Q26 and 52% below Bernstein's forecast. SK hynix's historical monthly pattern is more balanced than Samsung's, reducing the likelihood that September alone produces a large catch-up. Under the most back-end-loaded seasonality observed since 2024, however, revenue could reach US$7.5B and still grow sequentially. Bernstein therefore treats the precise regression output cautiously but views the data as evidence of slow HBM momentum, probably related to delayed HBM4 shipments, and expects Samsung's share to move above SK hynix's in 3Q26. Export value per weight reinforces the product-mix divergence. Bernstein uses this measure only as a directional indicator of HBM pricing and mix, not as a precise ASP forecast. Samsung's South Chungcheong value per weight rose another 8% MoM, reached 2.2 times its April level and exceeded the SK hynix proxy by more than five times. The report attributes much of this increase to Samsung's earlier HBM4 ramp because HBM4 should carry a materially higher value per weight than HBM3/3E. The SK hynix proxy was approximately flat MoM and showed no clear evidence of meaningful HBM4 shipments, although Bernstein expects it to rise once the company's HBM4 ramp begins. The report separates HBM mix improvement from the conventional-memory pricing cycle. Conventional-memory prices had increased about fivefold since 3Q25, whereas Samsung's value-per-weight indicator had improved only about twofold and SK hynix's trend had weakened. Bernstein therefore argues that HBM prices remained comparatively insulated from the surge in conventional DRAM pricing; Samsung's increase appears primarily mix-driven rather than a like-for-like HBM price increase. The blended HBM average may even have declined YoY after considering SK hynix's larger HBM scale. Nevertheless, suppliers and customers were negotiating 2027 HBM contracts, and Bernstein expects higher contract prices to become visible later. Malaysia was the other major development. Estimated HBM exports to Malaysia increased another 22% MoM to about US$1.6B and reached 33% of total HBM exports in August. The six-month average run rate was roughly US$0.9B, compared with US$3.7B for Taiwan. Bernstein assumes the Malaysia volume is related to Intel's EMIB packaging, but finds the early timing puzzling because new customer programs would normally require slightly more than one year to reach volume production. Samsung appears to benefit more: about 40% of its proxy exports went to Malaysia, versus 24% for the North Chungcheong-Gyeonggi proxy, although the latter supplied roughly 30% of Malaysia-bound exports in August. The growth supports the report's view that Samsung is gaining broader customer recognition in HBM. Across all destinations, Korean multichip-memory exports totaled US$12.2B in August, up 21% MoM and 27% QoQ. Taiwan and Malaysia accounted for 40%, down from 44% in May because conventional-memory price increases raised export values to other destinations more quickly. Rising values to Hong Kong, mainland China, the United States, Japan and India are therefore attributed mainly to conventional mobile-memory packages rather than HBM. South Chungcheong, North Chungcheong and Gyeonggi still accounted for almost all relevant exports to Taiwan and Malaysia, with no evidence of new Korean HBM packaging locations. For equities, Bernstein remains structurally constructive on Samsung, SK hynix and Micron and cautious on KIOXIA. Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are rated Outperform with respective price targets of KRW 440,000, KRW 3,300,000 and US$1,300; Samsung's preferred-share and GDR targets are KRW 374,000 and US$7,350. KIOXIA is rated Underperform with a JPY 40,000 target because Bernstein sees structural NAND competition and considers the shares expensive despite their correction and stronger shareholder returns. The disclosed valuation bases are 6.2 times forward 5Q-8Q EPS of KRW 71,172 for Samsung, 6.2 times forward 5Q-8Q EPS of KRW 536,158 for SK hynix, 7.7 times forward 5Q-8Q adjusted EPS of US$169.8 for Micron and 4.1 times one-year-forward EPS of JPY 9,810 for KIOXIA. Bernstein also cites its detailed SOTP work when describing KIOXIA as overvalued.

Analysis framework

Bernstein begins with Korean customs data for multichip-memory exports, restricts the core HBM proxy to Taiwan and Malaysia, and separates companies using the Korean provinces associated with their fabrication and packaging sites. It compares monthly, quarterly and annual growth, applies historical regressions to estimate same-quarter HBM revenue, tests the result against recent-period samples and company-specific seasonality, and uses export value per weight as a directional indicator of price and product mix. It then examines destinations and packaging routes before translating the operating conclusions into company views and disclosed valuation multiples.

Methodology notes

• Quantitative, Factor, and Portfolio Theory

  Historical export-to-HBM-revenue regression with seasonality checks

  The report regresses company-linked exports against reported HBM revenue to estimate 3Q26 results, then checks recent-quarter samples and monthly shipment patterns. The relationship has historically been useful but may become less predictive when new-product ramps distort normal seasonality.

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Export value per weight as a directional ASP and mix proxy

  Dividing export value by shipment weight helps distinguish volume changes from richer product mix or pricing. Bernstein uses it to infer Samsung's HBM4 mix improvement, while explicitly stating that it is not precise enough for a direct ASP forecast.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Origin-and-destination mapping of the HBM packaging chain

  The analysis links Korean production provinces to Samsung and SK hynix and follows exports to Taiwan's CoWoS and Malaysia's presumed EMIB packaging routes to isolate HBM from other multichip-memory products.

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Forward earnings-multiple valuation

  Bernstein derives the disclosed targets using 6.2 times forward 5Q-8Q EPS for Samsung and SK hynix, 7.7 times adjusted forward EPS for Micron and 4.1 times one-year-forward EPS for KIOXIA.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  Detailed SOTP assessment for KIOXIA

  The narrative cites Bernstein's detailed sum-of-the-parts work as additional support for its conclusion that KIOXIA remains overvalued, although the segment-level calculation is not reproduced in this report.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, 005935.KS, SMSN.LI)

  Primary beneficiary of the strong August HBM indicators; rated Outperform with targets of KRW 440,000 for common shares, KRW 374,000 for preferred shares and US$7,350 for the GDR.

  Strengths

  South Chungcheong exports rose 61% QoQ, regression implies 72% QoQ HBM-revenue growth, HBM4 mix is ramping earlier, and Malaysia exports support broader customer recognition.

  Weaknesses

  The export-based revenue estimate may be distorted by seasonality, product mix or unobserved domestic and overseas packaging.

  Comparison

  Samsung's value per weight was more than five times the SK hynix proxy, and Bernstein expects Samsung's HBM share to move above SK hynix's in 3Q26.

  Risks

  An early end to favorable memory pricing, weaker demand, higher supply, investor-sentiment changes and China memory progress could pressure earnings or valuation.

• SK hynix (000660.KS)

  A structurally favored DRAM producer but a near-term HBM laggard; rated Outperform with a KRW 3,300,000 target.

  Strengths

  Bernstein expects its delayed HBM4 ramp eventually to occur and believes higher 2027 HBM contract prices should benefit the company.

  Weaknesses

  Proxy exports were down 21% QoQ, value per weight was flat and the central regression indicates US$5.9B of 3Q26 HBM revenue, 52% below Bernstein's forecast.

  Comparison

  Momentum trailed Samsung in July and August, and the report expects SK hynix's HBM market share to fall below Samsung's before potentially recovering.

  Risks

  Further HBM4 delays, weaker-than-expected September exports and possible changes in the Gyeonggi proxy relationship could undermine the near-term outlook.

• Micron Technology (US.MU)

  Included in Bernstein's constructive DRAM view and rated Outperform with a US$1,300 target.

  Strengths

  The broader conventional-memory pricing upturn and Bernstein's constructive DRAM stance support the investment view.

  Weaknesses

  The Korean export tracker does not directly measure Micron's HBM shipments or revenue.

  Comparison

  Micron shares the report's favorable structural DRAM view with Samsung and SK hynix but is not part of the company-level Korean customs regression.

  Risks

  Cyclical pricing, weaker demand, higher supply and changes in investor valuation are identified as sector risks.

• KIOXIA Holdings (285A.T)

  Rated Underperform with a JPY 40,000 target; Bernstein remains cautious despite the share-price correction and more aggressive shareholder returns.

  Strengths

  Potential upside could come from stronger NAND demand, Japanese government capex support or better-than-expected cost reductions.

  Weaknesses

  Bernstein cites structural NAND competition, especially from China, and considers the stock expensive under its valuation work.

  Comparison

  Unlike its constructive stance on Samsung, SK hynix and Micron, Bernstein maintains a cautious view on KIOXIA.

  Risks

  Competitive advances and capacity growth in Chinese NAND remain central downside concerns, while stronger NAND pricing, policy support or cost reductions could challenge the bearish case.

Key data

• Taiwan and Malaysia HBM-proxy exports+19% MoM, +17% QoQ versus May, +77% YoYAugust Korean multichip-memory exports to the two principal HBM destinations.
• Samsung-linked August exportsUS$2.8B; +30% MoM and +61% QoQ versus MayExports from South Chungcheong, where Samsung's HBM back-end facilities are located.
• Samsung July-August exports+83% QoQSupports a strong 3Q26 HBM-revenue result.
• Samsung 3Q26 regression estimateUS$11.4B; +72% QoQAbout 23% above Bernstein's US$9.3B HBM-revenue forecast.
• Samsung export seasonalityFirst month averaged less than 20% of quarterly exportsThe back-end-loaded pattern supports an expectation of further sequential growth in September.
• Samsung HBM4 guidance>3x QoQ in 3Q26 and well over 60% of 2H26 HBM salesCompany guidance that Bernstein says is supported by export data.
• SK hynix-linked August exports+7% MoM and -21% QoQ versus MayNorth Chungcheong plus Gyeonggi is used as the company proxy.
• SK hynix 3Q26 regression estimateUS$5.9B; -14% QoQThe estimate is 52% below Bernstein's forecast.
• SK hynix alternative seasonal caseUS$7.5BUsing the most back-end-loaded quarterly pattern observed since 2024 would still produce sequential growth.
• Samsung value per weight+8% MoM; 2.2x April; more than 5x the SK hynix proxyDirectionally indicates a rapid HBM4-driven mix improvement.
• Memory-price comparisonConventional memory about 5x since 3Q25 versus about 2x for Samsung's value-per-weight proxySuggests HBM pricing has been steadier and Samsung's increase is substantially mix-driven.
• Malaysia HBM-proxy exportsAbout US$1.6B; +22% MoM; 33% of total HBM exportsThe six-month average was about US$0.9B, versus US$3.7B for Taiwan.
• Malaysia exposure by company proxyAbout 40% for Samsung versus 24% for SK hynixThe SK hynix proxy nevertheless supplied about 30% of total Malaysia-bound exports in August.
• Total Korean multichip-memory exportsUS$12.2B; +21% MoM and +27% QoQIncludes HBM as well as conventional mobile DRAM and NAND packages.
• Taiwan and Malaysia share of total exports40% in August versus 44% in MayThe decline reflects faster value growth in conventional-memory exports to other destinations.
• Samsung valuation6.2x forward 5Q-8Q EPS of KRW 71,172Supports targets of KRW 440,000 for common shares, KRW 374,000 for preferred shares and US$7,350 for the GDR.
• SK hynix valuation6.2x forward 5Q-8Q EPS of KRW 536,158Supports a KRW 3,300,000 price target.
• Micron valuation7.7x forward 5Q-8Q adjusted EPS of US$169.8Supports a US$1,300 price target.
• KIOXIA valuation4.1x one-year-forward EPS of JPY 9,810Supports a JPY 40,000 price target.

Impact & implications

Bernstein believes Samsung could outgrow SK hynix in 3Q26 HBM revenue and take the market-share lead as its HBM4 mix expands earlier. SK hynix may recover once HBM4 shipments begin, while higher 2027 HBM contract prices could benefit both companies and the broader industry. For stocks, the firm remains constructive on Samsung, SK hynix and Micron but sees KIOXIA's NAND competition and valuation as structural concerns.

Risks

• The export regressions may be inaccurate because new-product ramps can distort seasonality and exports do not perfectly capture reported HBM revenue.
• Replacing Icheon city data with wider Gyeonggi Province data could become less reliable if exports from other fabs in the province change.
• HBM packaged outside Korea or consumed in domestic Korean packaging would not appear in the customs-based tracker.
• An earlier end to favorable memory pricing, caused by weaker demand or greater supply, is a downside risk to earnings and price targets.
• Memory remains cyclical, and changes in investor sentiment can affect the valuation multiples awarded to the stocks.
• Progress by Chinese memory producers, especially in NAND, is a structural competitive risk.

What to watch

• September exports for the expected back-end-loaded increase in Samsung's 3Q26 shipments.
• The timing of SK hynix's HBM4 ramp and whether its export value per weight begins rising meaningfully.
• Whether Gyeonggi Province remains a reliable substitute for discontinued Icheon city-level customs data.
• Malaysia-bound exports, including why presumed Intel EMIB-related shipments are increasing ahead of expected volume-production timing.
• The outcome of 2027 HBM contract-price negotiations and when higher prices become visible.
• Capital-return plans, long-term agreements, CXMT's progress and YMTC's IPO as indicators of stock support and longer-term Chinese competitive pressure.