Korean HBM exports hit a new high in June, with Samsung performing significantly above expectations
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Korean HBM exports hit a new high in June, with Samsung performing significantly above expectations
Bernstein uses Korean multi-chip memory exports to track Samsung and SK hynix HBM revenue, with June data pointing to strong HBM growth in 2Q26, most visibly driven by Samsung’s HBM4 volume ramp.
- Korea’s multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan, China and Malaysia reached US$6.2B in June, up 45% MoM, up 46% versus March, and up 119% YoY, setting another record high.
- Samsung-related exports from S. Chungcheong doubled in June and rose 75% QoQ in 2Q26; the regression model points to Samsung 2Q26 HBM revenue of about US$6.7B, roughly 25% above Bernstein’s US$5.4B model.
- SK hynix-related exports from N. Chungcheong and Icheon rose 11% MoM in June and 19% QoQ in 2Q26; the regression model points to 2Q26 HBM revenue of about US$7.6B, broadly in line with expectations.
- Samsung’s export value per unit weight rose another 30% in June and 70% cumulatively versus April; the report believes this is more likely to reflect a higher mix of HBM4 shipments rather than an industry-wide surge in HBM pricing.
- The report maintains structurally positive views on Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, while staying negative on KIOXIA, citing reasons including Chinese competition and valuation pressure.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Bernstein’s global memory industry data tracker, primarily using Korea Customs’ June multi-chip memory export data to infer Samsung and SK hynix HBM revenue trends in 2Q26. The report argues that overall HBM exports were very strong, with Samsung performing significantly above expectations and showing signs of a continued HBM4 ramp; SK hynix still delivered healthy growth, but at a slower pace than Samsung and broadly in line with model expectations.
Core views
The core views are: first, Korea’s multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan, China and Malaysia hit a record high in June, confirming that HBM demand was still accelerating into 2Q26; second, Samsung’s exports from S. Chungcheong and export value per unit weight both rose sharply, suggesting its HBM revenue may beat expectations and that HBM4 shipments are ramping; third, SK hynix export growth was solid but more balanced, with forecast revenue consistent with Bernstein’s prior expectations; fourth, price increases in conventional memory and a 2027 HBM price re-rating could support memory stock prices and earnings upgrades; fifth, the report remains positive on Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, but structurally negative on KIOXIA.
Analysis framework
The report uses Korea Customs export data as a leading indicator, mapping multi-chip memory exports from different Korean regions to different companies: S. Chungcheong is used as a proxy for Samsung HBM packaging and exports, while N. Chungcheong plus Icheon are used as proxy variables for SK hynix; on the destination side, Taiwan, China and Malaysia are viewed as the main HBM export destinations. The report further uses the regression relationship between historical export data and company HBM revenue to estimate 2Q26 revenue, and uses export value per unit weight to assess HBM4 mix improvement or pricing changes.
Methodology notes
Use Korean Customs multi-chip memory exports as a leading indicator of HBM revenue
The report believes that Korea’s specific multi-chip memory export data is highly correlated with Samsung and SK hynix quarterly HBM revenue, so it tracks export value, destinations, and source regions monthly to assess HBM revenue trends in advance.
S. Chungcheong corresponds to Samsung, while N. Chungcheong and Icheon correspond to SK hynix
S. Chungcheong is the location of Samsung’s back-end plants and HBM packaging; N. Chungcheong and Icheon are identified as the main source locations for SK hynix HBM exports, so the report uses export changes from these regions to infer HBM revenue for the two companies.
Use Apr-Jun export data to estimate 2Q26 HBM revenue
The regression results indicate Samsung 2Q26 HBM revenue of about US$6.7B, up 89% QoQ and above Bernstein’s model; SK hynix 2Q26 HBM revenue is about US$7.6B, up 25% QoQ and in line with expectations.
Use export value divided by weight as a directional indicator of HBM ASP and HBM4 mix
The report emphasizes that this metric is only a directional reference and cannot precisely estimate pricing. Samsung-related value per unit weight rose sharply again in June, more likely due to a higher share of HBM4 shipments rather than a broad-based increase in industry HBM prices.
HBM packaged overseas or consumed within Korea may not be captured
If Samsung or SK hynix shift HBM packaging outside Korea, or if HBM is packaged into other products within Korea, Korean export data will not fully reflect those shipments.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Samsung ElectronicsPrimary beneficiary of HBM growth and HBM4 ramp
- Strengths
- S. Chungcheong exports doubled in June, 2Q26 exports rose 75% QoQ, and the regression estimate for HBM revenue is materially above the model; export value per unit weight continued to rise, pointing to improved HBM4 mix.
- Weaknesses
- 2Q26 exports were clearly back-end loaded into June, and the report notes a need to watch whether similar seasonality continues in 3Q26; HBM pricing itself has not obviously risen across the board.
- Comparison
- Relative to SK hynix, Samsung saw faster export growth and a greater upside surprise in 2Q26; the report believes its HBM4 and share-gain momentum is stronger.
- Risks
- If HBM packaging moves out of Korea or demand is weaker than expected, both the export proxy indicator and realized revenue could come in below the report’s assessment.
- SK hynixOne of the HBM leaders, with steady growth but trailing Samsung in this period
- Strengths
- Exports from N. Chungcheong and Icheon recovered MoM in June, and 2Q26 exports rose 19% QoQ; the regression estimate of US$7.6B in HBM revenue is in line with forecasts.
- Weaknesses
- The trend in export value per unit weight was broadly flat or weaker, and the report did not see HBM4 shipment signals similar to Samsung’s.
- Comparison
- SK hynix export seasonality is more balanced, but its 2Q26 growth rate is clearly slower than Samsung’s.
- Risks
- If HBM4 progress lags or 2027 price negotiations disappoint, the scope for earnings upgrades may be limited.
- MicronBeneficiary of the global memory cycle and HBM/DRAM upcycle
- Strengths
- The report maintains an Outperform rating and believes conventional memory price increases and HBM price re-rating are favorable for sector-wide earnings upgrades among memory stocks.
- Weaknesses
- The Korean export data in this report mainly maps directly to Samsung and SK hynix, providing less direct validation for Micron.
- Comparison
- Micron, as a global memory name, is supported by the industry cycle, but the data evidence in this report is less direct than for Korean manufacturers.
- Risks
- An early end to the conventional memory cycle, weakening demand, or rising supply would pressure earnings and valuation.
- KIOXIANAND-related name on which the report maintains a negative view
- Strengths
- Potential upside risks include stronger-than-expected NAND demand, support from Japanese government policy, and better-than-expected cost declines.
- Weaknesses
- The report believes KIOXIA’s valuation is high and that it faces structural pressure from Chinese NAND competition.
- Comparison
- Compared with Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, the report is clearly more cautious on KIOXIA.
- Risks
- NAND technology and capacity competition may intensify, especially as Chinese manufacturers can advance NAND technology and capacity without EUV.
Key data
- June multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan, China and MalaysiaUS$6.2BUp 45% MoM, up 46% versus March, and up 119% YoY, setting a record high.
- Overall HBM-related exports in 2Q26+39% QoQThe report views multi-chip memory exports related to Taiwan, China and Malaysia as a close proxy for HBM revenue.
- Samsung-related exports from S. ChungcheongAbout US$3.4B in June; 2Q26 +75% QoQJune exports doubled versus May, marking the first time monthly exports exceeded SK hynix-related exports.
- Samsung 2Q26 HBM revenue regression estimateUS$6.7B; +89% QoQAbout 25% above Bernstein’s original model of US$5.4B.
- SK hynix-related exports from N. Chungcheong and IcheonJune +11% MoM; 2Q26 +19% QoQFairly close to the report’s current forecast of 25% growth in 2Q26 HBM revenue.
- SK hynix 2Q26 HBM revenue regression estimateUS$7.6B; +25% QoQThe report says this is fully in line with its original forecast.
- Samsung export value per unit weightJune +30% MoM; +70% vs AprilThe report believes this likely reflects increased HBM4 shipments.
- Korea multi-chip memory exports to all destinationsUS$12.7BUp 32% MoM in June and 48% versus March, driven by both HBM growth and price increases in conventional memory.
- Share of Taiwan, China and Malaysia in total multi-chip memory exports48%Slightly down from 49% in March because export value of conventional memory to other destinations grew faster.
- Exports to MalaysiaAbout US$1.1B; +231% MoMThe report believes this was mainly driven by Samsung’s recovery, possibly related to seasonality and EMIB-related demand, and still needs further observation.
Impact & implications
In terms of investment implications, the report believes HBM demand momentum remains strong, and even with slower Rubin progress, the 2Q26 data still supports a positive narrative for the memory sector. Samsung may continue gaining share momentum in 2H26 due to its HBM4 ramp and improved customer acceptance; SK hynix is performing solidly but with a lower degree of near-term upside surprise; Micron also benefits from the DRAM and HBM cycle; KIOXIA is viewed as relatively disadvantaged due to NAND competition, valuation, and threats from Chinese manufacturers. Continued price increases in conventional memory, along with 2027 HBM contract price negotiations, could trigger earnings upgrades and support near-term share prices.
Risks
- Korean export data is a proxy indicator; if HBM packaging shifts outside Korea, this method will not capture it.
- If HBM is packaged into other products within Korea, export data also will not fully reflect actual shipments.
- Export value per unit weight is only a directional reference and cannot precisely estimate HBM pricing or ASP.
- The favorable memory pricing environment may end earlier than expected due to weakening demand or increasing supply.
- Progress by Chinese memory manufacturers, especially in NAND, could pose a structural downside risk.
- KIOXIA faces high valuation and NAND competitive pressure.
- Changes in investor sentiment and in the valuation multiples assigned by the market may also affect delivery against target prices.
What to watch
- Whether Samsung’s HBM4 ramp and share gains in 2H26 are realized.
- Whether Samsung exports in 3Q26 continue to show monthly back-end-loaded seasonality similar to 2Q26.
- Whether 2027 HBM contract price negotiations bring earnings upgrades.
- Whether price increases in conventional DRAM and NAND can continue.
- Whether Malaysia-related HBM exports continue to grow and whether they form a real mass-production link with EMIB demand.
- Whether Taiwan, China and Malaysia continue to serve as the main destinations for HBM exports.
- The emergence of CXMT and YMTC, progress on IPOs, and their impact on structural competition in DRAM and NAND.
- Whether Amkor’s increase in CoWoS-like capacity in Korea weakens the completeness of Korean export data as a proxy for HBM.