April South Korean Memory Export Data Shows Strong HBM Demand, Samsung and SK Hynix Maintain Solid 2Q26 Growth

Overview

This report updates April data by tracking South Korean customs export data as a leading indicator of Samsung and SK Hynix's HBM revenues. The data's correlation has been validated in prior research. Overall, April data shows healthy HBM demand momentum, with both major suppliers expected to achieve solid sequential growth in 2Q26, though slower than earlier forecasts due to Rubin (AI chip) delivery delays. The firm remains bullish on HBM market growth prospects in 2H26 and 2027.

Core views

South Korea's total multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan and Malaysia reached $3.7 billion in April, with the monthly decline primarily due to seasonal factors. On a quarterly basis, exports grew 62% compared to January, confirming sustained HBM sales momentum. For Samsung, South Chungcheong exports grew 26% sequentially (quarterly basis), despite a 38% MoM decline reflecting backend production seasonality. Regression analysis suggests Samsung's 2Q26 HBM revenue will reach $4.4 billion, up 25% sequentially. However, the firm initially forecasted 2Q26 revenue doubling, far exceeding this figure. The discrepancy is attributed to Rubin delivery delays, with regression analysis based on late 2024 data predicting $4.7 billion (32% sequential growth). The firm still believes Samsung's HBM4 will accelerate in 2H26, supporting full-year HBM market share growth. For SK Hynix, North Chungcheong and Incheon exports remained strong, with 4% MoM growth in April but 81% sequential growth due to a weak January base. The firm currently forecasts SK Hynix's 2Q26 HBM revenue at $8.2 billion (36% sequential growth), while regression analysis based on historical data suggests $7.5 billion (25% growth), slightly below expectations but still robust. Regarding HBM prices, unit value metrics declined slightly in April for both Samsung and SK Hynix. While Samsung announced HBM4 shipments in February, April data suggests limited initial volume. Historically, Samsung's price trends have improved, while SK Hynix's have been flat or declining, indicating Samsung's relative pricing strength. Notably, HBM prices remain insulated from rapid conventional DRAM price increases. While conventional memory prices surged over the past two quarters, HBM prices have stayed stable, reflecting their strategic nature and contract lock-in. The firm expects significant HBM price increases in early 2027 to narrow the gap with conventional DRAM, which may benefit SK Hynix more due to its larger 2026 HBM contracts.

Analysis framework

The core analytical framework is supply-demand matching tracking. Specifically, by monitoring exports from specific South Korean regions (Samsung's South Chungcheong and SK Hynix's North Chungcheong/Incheon) to key destinations (Taiwan and Malaysia, as primary HBM packaging and integration hubs), the firm established historical correlations between these exports and quarterly HBM revenues. Linear regression models quantify this relationship to convert monthly export data into quarterly HBM revenue forecasts. Seasonal pattern changes are carefully assessed. For example, Samsung's HBM exports have shown stronger backend production characteristics since 2025, prompting the firm to adjust the regression model's reference period (from full history to Q1 2025 onward) to better reflect current capacity structures. This reflects deep industry operational understanding. Unit value metrics (value/weight) serve as directional HBM price indicators. While ambiguous (as multi-chip memory includes DRAM and NAND), controlling for product mix and supplier weights allows reasonable price trend inferences. Geographic flow analysis validates methodology robustness. Taiwan and Malaysia remain concentrated HBM export destinations, with no new locations emerging, suggesting no missed packaging or integration hubs.

Methodology notes

• Industry Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Using supply-side export data to infer demand-side revenue, leveraging correlations between South Korean regional exports to specific destinations and HBM revenues for quarterly revenue forecasting

  High-bandwidth memory is a premium product primarily packaged and integrated in Taiwan via CoWoS advanced packaging. Tracking exports from South Korea, the global HBM production hub, provides early sales momentum insights weeks ahead of quarterly earnings, offering investors forward-looking perspectives.

• Company Fundamentals & Financial Frameworks

  Geographic capacity tracking: Concentrated production and packaging activities in specific regions enable accurate revenue inferences from regional export data

  Samsung's HBM packaging is concentrated in South Chungcheong, SK Hynix's in North Chungcheong and Incheon. These regions' export data strongly correlate with each company's HBM revenues. Slow capacity expansion and stable geographic patterns ensure methodology reliability.

• Company Fundamentals & Financial Frameworks

  Seasonal pattern recognition and model adaptation: Identifying monthly seasonal patterns from production characteristics and dynamically adjusting regression model time windows to align with capacity structure evolution

  Since 2025, Samsung's HBM exports show stronger backend loading (first month accounts for only 17% of quarterly volume), while SK Hynix's are more balanced. Recognizing this, the firm adjusted model reference periods, improving forecast accuracy and reflecting deep operational insights.

• Company Fundamentals & Financial Frameworks

  Contract lock-in and price insulation: Strategic products like HBM often use long-term contracts, insulating prices from spot market volatility

  Conventional memory prices rose sharply over the past two quarters, while HBM prices remained stable. The firm attributes this to HBM's strategic importance and contract nature rather than weak demand, meaning HBM price adjustments will depend more on contract renegotiation cycles (expected early 2027) than short-term supply-demand fluctuations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics(005930.KS)

  Primary HBM supplier, benefiting from strong HBM demand growth, especially 2H26 HBM4 ramp-up expectations

  Strengths

  Improved HBM pricing position recently, HBM4 shipments began in February (though initial volumes limited), expanding customer base (including Malaysia EMIB applications). Expect 2H26 HBM revenue acceleration

  Weaknesses

  April exports show 2Q26 growth below earlier forecasts (32% vs. prior 2x expectation), mainly due to Rubin delays. Initial HBM4 volumes insufficient to lift value/weight metrics

  Comparison

  Compared to SK Hynix, Samsung has stronger HBM pricing power and more diversified customers

  Risks

  Continued Rubin delays, HBM4 demand from key clients (e.g., Nvidia) falling short, conventional memory price pressures dragging overall chip division profits

• SK Hynix(000660.KS)

  Second-largest HBM supplier, benefiting from stable demand and 2027 HBM price increase prospects

  Strengths

  2Q26 HBM growth largely aligns with expectations (25% vs. prior 36% forecast), showing execution stability. More 2026 HBM contracts position it to benefit from 2027 price adjustments

  Weaknesses

  Recent HBM unit value trends flat or declining, weaker pricing position vs. Samsung. Limited near-term benefits from conventional memory price rises due to HBM price insulation

  Comparison

  Compared to Samsung, SK Hynix has higher customer concentration and weaker pricing power but more favorable contract structures for 2027 price increases

  Risks

  2027 HBM price increases delayed or smaller than expected, weakening growth. Intensifying China competition in NAND markets

• Micron Technology(MU)

  Memory industry participant benefiting from HBM market expansion and conventional memory price rises

  Strengths

  Benefits from expected 2Q26 conventional memory price increases and overall industry optimism from strong HBM demand

  Weaknesses

  Limited HBM market influence, primarily benefiting from industry-wide trends rather than specific HBM growth. Must monitor China supply increases pressuring prices

  Comparison

  Compared to Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron's HBM business is smaller with lower growth expectations, relying more on conventional memory cycles

  Risks

  Uncertain timing and magnitude of conventional memory price peaks, rapid China capacity additions

Key data

• South Korean multi-chip memory exports to Taiwan & Malaysia (April)$3.7 billionDown 12% MoM (seasonal) but up 62% YoY (vs. January), showing strong sequential momentum
• Samsung South Chungcheong exports (April)26% sequential growth (vs. January)38% MoM decline reflects backend production seasonality. Regression predicts 32% sequential HBM revenue growth in 2Q26
• SK Hynix North Chungcheong + Incheon exports (April)81% sequential growth (vs. January)4% MoM growth, regression predicts 25% sequential HBM revenue growth in 2Q26
• Forecast 2Q26 HBM revenue—Samsung$4.7 billion, 32% sequential growthBased on late 2025 regression analysis, below earlier forecasts but still healthy
• Forecast 2Q26 HBM revenue—SK Hynix$7.5 billion, 25% sequential growthRegression result, slightly below current forecast but still strong
• HBM unit value trendSlight MoM decline in AprilSamsung's trend improved recently, SK Hynix's flat or declining, no clear HBM4 mass shipment signals
• Conventional memory price impact on HBMLargely insulatedConventional memory prices rose sharply over two quarters, but HBM prices stayed stable, reflecting contract lock-in
• Expected HBM price increaseEarly 2027Expected significant price hikes to narrow gap with DRAM, benefiting SK Hynix

Impact & implications

For Samsung, April export data shows healthy HBM demand but slower sequential growth than earlier forecasts, primarily reflecting Rubin delivery delays. The firm still expects HBM4 acceleration in 2H26 to drive revenue growth. Samsung's relative HBM pricing position has also improved. Risks include further Rubin delays or competitive pressures limiting HBM share. For SK Hynix, April data shows similarly robust HBM demand, with sequential growth largely meeting expectations. The long-term opportunity lies in 2027 HBM price increases for compensation. Short-term focus should be on conventional memory price trends and actual Rubin demand progress. For the broader HBM market, this data confirms strong 2026 demand, supporting the firm's bullish outlook. However, HBM4 shipment progress requires further monitoring, with no clear signs in April. Conventional memory prices may peak in 1H27 before gradually normalizing, with industry profitability likely peaking in 2H26-2027. The firm maintains positive views on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, while remaining cautious on KIOXIA (China competition and valuation risks). 2H26 will be critical for observing HBM4 ramp-up and full-year guidance updates.

Risks

• Further Rubin AI chip delivery delays or demand shortfalls directly impacting HBM revenue growth
• HBM4 initial yields or cost controls falling short, affecting Samsung and SK Hynix margins
• 2027 HBM price increases may be smaller or delayed versus expectations
• China memory capacity expansions pressuring conventional and HBM prices
• Taiwan geopolitical risks potentially disrupting HBM packaging/integration (low probability but high impact)
• Investor sentiment and valuation fluctuations independent of fundamentals, especially during AI cycle adjustments

What to watch

• May and June South Korean export data to confirm 2Q26 HBM sequential growth aligns with forecasts
• Samsung and SK Hynix's Q2 earnings reports validating HBM revenues, margins, and initial HBM4 shipment scales
• Conventional memory price trends, particularly 3Q26 inflection signals
• Key HBM clients' (e.g., Nvidia) procurement guidance and AI chip demand updates
• 2H26 new product (e.g., HBM4e) customer qualifications and initial orders
• China memory players' capacity ramp timelines and initial yield performance