HBM exports were robust in April, and Q2 revenue is expected to grow 25%–32% quarter-over-quarter.

Overview

Bernstein tracks memory export data released by Korean customs as a leading indicator of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue for the current quarter. April data show that, despite a slight sequential decline driven by seasonal factors, overall export momentum remains robust, suggesting that the two industry leaders will post healthy quarter-over-quarter growth in HBM revenue in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26). However, the data have yet to reveal clear signs of large-scale ramp-up for HBM4, and HBM prices currently remain decoupled from the broader trend in conventional memory pricing.

Core views

Export data point to robust HBM revenue growth in Q2. In April, South Korea’s total exports of multi-chip memory to Taiwan and Malaysia reached $3.7 billion, down 12% month-over-month—primarily due to seasonal fluctuations in backend packaging—but up 62% from January and a remarkable 131% year-over-year. Regression analysis based on historical trends projects that Samsung Electronics’ HBM revenue for Q2 2026 will rise 32% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $4.7 billion, while SK Hynix’s HBM revenue is expected to increase 25% quarter-over-quarter to around $7.5 billion. Although these growth rates are slightly below the firm’s earlier, more optimistic forecasts—partly because they do not fully factor in the impact of delays to the Rubin platform—they nonetheless confirm the continued strength of HBM demand. HBM4 has yet to achieve significant volume, with pricing remaining decoupled. By tracking “export value per unit weight” as a proxy indicator, the report finds that this metric edged lower month-over-month in April, and neither Samsung nor SK Hynix has shown any meaningful uplift in value attributable to large-scale shipments of HBM4. This suggests that current HBM shipments continue to be dominated by existing generations. Notably, despite sharp price increases in conventional memory over recent months, HBM’s unit‑weight value has remained relatively stable, underscoring how long-term contract commitments shield HBM pricing from the volatility plaguing the broader memory market. The report anticipates that HBM prices may undergo a re‑pricing upward in early 2027; at that time, SK Hynix, which holds a larger share of long-term contracts, could stand to benefit more than Samsung. Regional export dynamics remain steady, with Malaysia warranting attention. Taiwan continues to be the primary destination for South Korean HBM exports, accounting for a substantial share. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s export value declined seasonally to $400 million in April but remains at a notably high level, likely driven by Intel’s EMIB packaging needs. To date, no new destinations have emerged for HBM exports, nor have there been indications of Samsung or SK Hynix engaging in HBM packaging outside of South Korea, validating the effectiveness of the current tracking methodology. Industry outlook and stock-specific views. The report projects strong HBM demand over the next two years, fueled by AI‑related initiatives. For conventional memory, prices are expected to remain robust through Q2 2026 but will gradually normalize after peaking in the first half of 2027. Accordingly, the firm maintains an “Outperform” rating on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology, while assigning an “Underperform” rating to KIOXIA, citing competitive pressures from China and elevated valuation levels.

Analysis framework

This report employs a methodological approach that combines “high-frequency data tracking” with “regression analysis.” First, we select the monthly Multichip Memory export data published by South Korea’s Customs Service as our primary observation variable, given its close correlation with HBM and the fact that its major export destinations—primarily Taiwan and Malaysia—host key advanced packaging hubs. Second, we disaggregate the contributions of the two leading manufacturers by distinguishing their respective export origins, such as Chungcheongnam-do, where Samsung is headquartered, and Chungcheongbuk-do and Icheon, where SK Hynix is based. Finally, leveraging the linear regression relationship between historical quarterly revenue and the first-month export figures, we derive a forecast for HBM revenue in the current quarter. At the same time, we introduce “export value per unit weight” as a proxy for both price levels and product mix, enabling us to assess the penetration of next-generation products—such as HBM4—and track pricing trends.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkTransmission across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the industrial chain

  Using upstream export data to forecast downstream manufacturers’ revenue

  The research report employs South Korea’s memory‑export data (covering the upstream and midstream segments) as a leading indicator of HBM revenue for Samsung and SK Hynix in the current quarter. The rationale behind this approach is that the timing of memory shipments from South Korea to Taiwan or Malaysia for packaging and testing closely precedes the recognition of revenue by brand‑name manufacturers, thereby offering a high‑frequency observation window that comes earlier than financial reports.

• Quantitative/Factor/Portfolio Theory

  Linear Regression Forecasting Model

  The research report constructs a linear regression model linking “quarterly HBM revenue” to “first‑month multi‑chip memory export value.” By assessing the historical data’s correlation—characterized by a relatively high R²—and applying the known April export figures to the regression equation, it forecasts total revenue for the second quarter. This represents a quintessential quantitative‑analytic approach that leverages high‑frequency local data to infer low‑frequency aggregate metrics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)

  Benefit: As a major supplier to HBM, export data indicate that its Q2 revenue will increase by 32% quarter-over-quarter.

  Strengths

  HBM4 technology is progressing smoothly, with accelerated volume ramp-up expected in the second half of 2026; customer adoption is expanding.

  Weaknesses

  Q2 results fell slightly short of institutions’ earlier aggressive forecasts of double-digit growth.

  Comparison

  Its unit-weight value trend has recently outperformed SK Hynix, suggesting a stronger product mix or pricing power.

  Risks

  The Rubin platform’s delays are weighing on near-term momentum; China’s memory chip sector faces intensified competition.

• SK hynix (000660.KS)

  Benefit: As a major supplier to HBM, export data indicate that its Q2 revenue will increase by 25% quarter-over-quarter.

  Strengths

  It currently dominates the traditional HBM segment; during the 2027 price revaluation, it may stand to benefit further due to its substantial backlog of long-term contracts.

  Weaknesses

  The unit-weight value trend has remained broadly stable or edged lower recently, slightly underperforming Samsung.

  Comparison

  The revenue forecast is higher than Samsung’s, but the growth rate is slightly lower.

  Risks

  Intensified competition in the HBM4 segment; valuation risks.

• Micron Technology (MU.US)

  Benefit: One of the world’s leading memory chip manufacturers, benefiting from an upturn in industry conditions.

  Strengths

  We remain structurally bullish, benefiting from the concurrent price increases in HBM and traditional memory products.

  Comparison

  It has been assigned an “Outperform” rating, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix.

  Risks

  Weaker demand or increased supply could lead to an earlier-than-expected end to the current price environment.

• KIOXIA Holdings (285A.JP)

  Underperform/Prudent: Facing competitive pressures from China and valuation concerns.

  Weaknesses

  It is at a disadvantage in China’s NAND market and its valuation lacks appeal.

  Comparison

  The only covered stock to have been assigned an “underperform” rating.

  Risks

  Price pressures stemming from the expansion of China’s memory chip production capacity.

Key data

• In April, South Korea’s exports of multi-chip memory devices to Taiwan and Malaysia totaled…US$3.7 billionYoY -12% (seasonally adjusted), up 62% from January, and up 131% year-on-year.
• Samsung Electronics’ Q2 2026 HBM Revenue Forecast~US$4.7 billionBased on recent data regression forecasts, month-over-month growth is +32%.
• SK Hynix 2Q26 HBM Revenue Forecast~US$7.5 billionBased on historical data regression forecasting, month-over-month growth of +25%
• April export value to MalaysiaUS$400 millionA month-over-month decline, but still at a statistically significant level.

Impact & implications

For investors, April data confirm that the robust growth trajectory of the HBM sector remains intact, unaffected by short-term seasonal fluctuations, with Samsung and SK Hynix enjoying high earnings visibility in 2Q26. Although the delayed ramp-up of HBM4 may result in near-term revenue growth falling slightly short of the most optimistic forecasts, this does not alter the underlying long-term growth thesis. Moreover, stable HBM pricing provides manufacturers with predictable profit margins, while a potential price re-rating in 2027 could serve as a catalyst for SK Hynix going forward. As for the traditional memory segment, the upward price trend is expected to persist through the first half of 2027, supporting a near-term recovery in earnings for relevant players.

Risks

• The favorable pricing environment ends ahead of schedule (due to weakening demand or increased supply).
• Changes in investor sentiment have put valuation under pressure.
• China’s technological advancements and capacity expansion in the memory sector, particularly in NAND flash memory

What to watch

• The actual ramp-up speed and revenue contribution of HBM4 in the second half of 2026
• Will HBM prices be revalued upward as scheduled by early 2027?
• Will the price trend of traditional memory chips indeed moderate after the third quarter of 2026, as expected?
• Are Malaysia’s export data returning to growth in line with seasonal patterns?