Kematek (301611) Report Interpretation

Overview

This earnings review assesses Kematek after a weaker-than-expected 2Q26. Goldman Sachs remains positive on the company’s longer-term expansion into ceramic heaters, electrostatic chucks and SiC components, while reducing forecasts and its target price to reflect a slower yield ramp for new products.

Core views

Goldman Sachs argues that Kematek’s capacity expansion and new-product rollout should support growth from 2H26 through 2027. Ceramic-heater deliveries remain stable, while 8-inch and 12-inch electrostatic chucks and ultra-high-purity/CVD SiC components have begun small-batch delivery. The institution expects continued capacity build-out to enable subsequent scaling of ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks. Its constructive view is tied to growth in China semiconductor capital expenditure, the localization trend, and broader new-product commercialization. The immediate issue is a 2Q26 miss driven by new-product yields. Revenue reached Rmb322m, up 19% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year, but 4% below Goldman Sachs’ Rmb337m forecast. Gross profit of Rmb145m was 25% below forecast, operating profit of Rmb67m was 39% below forecast, and net income of Rmb52m was 53% below forecast. Gross margin fell to 45.1%, down 1.0 percentage point sequentially and 8.8 percentage points year-on-year, versus Goldman Sachs’ 57.6% forecast. The report attributes the margin shortfall to lower-than-expected yields on new products. Reflecting a more gradual yield ramp, Goldman Sachs reduces 2026E-30E revenue estimates by 3%, 8%, 15%, 8% and 7%, respectively, and cuts net-income estimates by 50%, 44%, 45%, 38% and 33%. Revised 2026E revenue is Rmb1,379m and net income Rmb230m, compared with prior estimates of Rmb1,416m and Rmb460m. For 2030E, revised revenue is Rmb5,625m and net income Rmb1,956m, versus Rmb6,026m and Rmb2,922m previously. Gross-margin assumptions are reduced by 13.5 percentage points in 2026E, 16.9 percentage points in 2027E, 16.8 percentage points in 2028E, 16.5 percentage points in 2029E and 14.7 percentage points in 2030E. Nevertheless, the institution expects yields to improve over time, allowing product life, gross margin and ASPs to catch up with global-tier peers. For valuation, Goldman Sachs continues to use a discounted P/E approach to capture long-term growth potential. It applies a 42.6x 2030E P/E multiple, derived from the relationship between peers’ earnings growth and trading P/E based on Kematek’s 2030-31E average earnings growth. Discounting the resulting value back to 2027E using a 10.7% cost of equity produces a new 12-month target price of Rmb141, down from Rmb164. The target price implies 119x 2027E P/E. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy despite the lower target and earnings revisions.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs first incorporates the 2Q26 revenue, profit and margin miss into its forecasts, attributing the shortfall to slower new-product yield improvement. It then assesses the path from capacity expansion and small-batch product deliveries to future revenue and margin recovery. For valuation, it benchmarks the relationship between peer P/E multiples and earnings growth, applies a 42.6x 2030E P/E multiple, and discounts the result back to 2027E using a 10.7% cost of equity.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Discounted P/E valuation based on peer P/E and earnings-growth relationships

  The report applies a 42.6x 2030E P/E multiple inferred from peers’ growth-versus-multiple relationship, then discounts that value back to 2027E using a 10.7% cost of equity to derive the Rmb141 target price.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  China semiconductor capital expenditure, localization and product-yield ramp transmission

  The report links China semiconductor-capex expansion and localization demand to Kematek’s capacity utilization and new-product rollout, while identifying manufacturing yields as the near-term constraint on margins and earnings.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kematek (301611.SZ)

  Primary covered company; expected to benefit from China semiconductor-capex growth, localization and new-product expansion.

  Strengths

  Stable ceramic-heater deliveries; small-batch deliveries of 8-inch/12-inch electrostatic chucks and ultra-high-purity/CVD SiC components; continued capacity expansion.

  Weaknesses

  New-product yields were below expectations, causing the 2Q26 margin miss and material estimate cuts.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs expects product life, gross margins and ASPs to catch up with global-tier peers as yields improve.

  Risks

  Slower China semiconductor-capex expansion, slower module product-line expansion, and slower local supply-chain diversification.

Key data

• 2Q26 revenueRmb322mUp 19% QoQ and 18% YoY; 4% below Goldman Sachs' Rmb337m forecast.
• 2Q26 net incomeRmb52mUp 14% QoQ and down 38% YoY; 53% below Goldman Sachs' Rmb110m forecast.
• 2Q26 gross margin45.1%Down 1.0ppt QoQ and 8.8ppt YoY; 12.5ppt below Goldman Sachs' 57.6% forecast.
• 2026E-30E net-income revisions-50% / -44% / -45% / -38% / -33%Cuts reflect the expected gradual ramp in new-product yields.
• 2026E-30E revenue revisions-3% / -8% / -15% / -8% / -7%Reflects slower expected new-product revenue growth.
• 12-month target priceRmb141Reduced from Rmb164; based on 42.6x 2030E P/E discounted to 2027E at a 10.7% cost of equity.

Impact & implications

The report sees the 2Q26 miss as a delay in the profitability ramp rather than a break in Kematek’s longer-term growth opportunity. Its maintained Buy reflects expectations that capacity expansion, China semiconductor investment and localization can support volume growth, while improving yields are needed for gross margins and ASPs to converge toward global-tier peers.

Risks

• Slower-than-expected semiconductor-capex expansion in China.
• Slower-than-expected expansion of product lines into modules.
• Slower-than-expected supply-chain diversification in the local market.

What to watch

• The pace of yield improvement for new electrostatic-chuck and SiC products.
• Capacity expansion and the ramp from small-batch to broader delivery for ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks.
• China semiconductor-capex growth and the pace of local supply-chain diversification.