KomaTech benefits from the expansion of the domestic semiconductor components TAM and localization trends

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' takeaway memo following a management visit to KomaTech. The meeting, held in Shanghai on May 22, focused on domestic demand trends for ceramic semiconductor components, market TAM potential, product and technology expansion plans, and the company's footprint in structural ceramic components, ceramic heaters, electrostatic chucks, and related material processing capabilities.

Core views

The core view is that KomaTech is well positioned to benefit from rising localization demand in China's semiconductor equipment and wafer fab sectors. Management believes domestic suppliers are currently at a low base with limited penetration; as China's semiconductor capacity expands and domestic equipment makers gain share, the company's TAM is likely to grow. The company is not only adding capacity but also advancing electrostatic chuck customer validation and extending into metal processing, silicon materials, quartz materials, and ceramic electronic devices.

Analysis framework

The report mainly forms qualitative judgments based on management discussions, combined with Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price valuation framework. The valuation uses a 2029E discounted P/E and rolls it back to 2026E, with a target P/E of 46x derived from the relationship between KomaTech's peer P/E and EPS growth, as well as the company's 2029-30E YoY EPS growth.

Methodology notes

• Valuation method2029E discounted P/E

  Derive the target P/E from forward earnings and the peer growth-valuation relationship, then discount it back to the current target-price horizon.

  Goldman Sachs uses a 2029E discounted P/E to derive a 12-month target price of Rmb164 and then rolls the valuation back to 2026E; the 46x target P/E is based on the relationship between KomaTech's peer P/E and EPS growth, referencing the company's 2029-30E YoY EPS growth.

• Research frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks relatively across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

  The appendix explains that GS Factor Profile uses standardized ranks and percentiles to compare stocks on growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and overall performance; this is Goldman Sachs' general research framework.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Measure the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target on a scale of 1 to 3.

  The appendix explains that Goldman Sachs uses an M&A framework across its global coverage to assess the likelihood of a company being acquired, with rank 1 indicating high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; the excerpt does not show KomaTech's specific M&A rank.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• KomaTech (301611.SZ)

  Theme company of the report

  Strengths

  Benefits from China's semiconductor capacity expansion, rising share of domestic equipment makers, and preference for domestic components; its product portfolio covers structural ceramic components, ceramic heaters, and electrostatic chucks, and it is expanding capacity.

  Weaknesses

  The excerpt mainly reflects management discussions and lacks quantitative disclosure on orders, capacity, revenue breakdown, and customer validation progress.

  Comparison

  Management believes domestic component suppliers are still small relative to China's overall TAM, and KomaTech's growth opportunity comes from rising localization penetration at a low base.

  Risks

  China's semiconductor capex expansion may be slower than expected, product-line expansion into modules may lag expectations, and domestic supply-chain diversification may progress more slowly than expected.

• Ceramic semiconductor components

  Core business and growth driver

  Strengths

  Demand for structural ceramic components and ceramic heaters remains solid, supported by domestic SPE and wafer fab customers.

  Weaknesses

  Demand realization depends on customer capacity expansion timing and the pace of domestic supply-chain adoption.

  Comparison

  Relative to China's total TAM, domestic suppliers remain small, leaving substantial room for localization substitution.

  Risks

  If semiconductor equipment expansion slows or customer qualification is delayed, growth momentum may fall short of management expectations.

• Electrostatic chucks and new materials/process capabilities

  Product portfolio expansion direction

  Strengths

  The company already generates revenue from electrostatic chucks and is undergoing certification with multiple SPE and wafer fab customers; it is also exploring metal processing, silicon materials, quartz materials, and ceramic electronic devices.

  Weaknesses

  New products and new processes still require customer validation, mass-production capability, and supply-chain coordination.

  Comparison

  Compared with existing structural ceramic components, electrostatic chucks and materials processing capabilities could broaden the company's reach into critical semiconductor equipment components.

  Risks

  If the expansion from product lines into modules or more complex components is slower than expected, valuation realization may be limited.

Key data

• Time and location of management meetingMay 22, 2026, ShanghaiGoldman Sachs hosted KomaTech management during the China Tech Tour.
• 12-month target priceRmb164Based on a 2029E discounted P/E and rolled back to 2026E.
• Disclosed current priceRmb117.04From the company-specific disclosure section.
• Implied upsideapprox. 40.1%Simple calculation based on the Rmb164 target price and Rmb117.04 current price.
• Target P/E46xDerived from the relationship between peer P/E and EPS growth, as well as KomaTech's 2029-30E YoY EPS growth.
• Main demand sourceDomestic SPE and wafer fab customersDriven by China's semiconductor capacity expansion and rising preference for domestic components.
• Intended acquisition targetJiangsu HorkheimoManagement said its gold plating technology can be used for components in deposition and lithography equipment.

Impact & implications

If China's semiconductor equipment capex expansion and localization trend continue, KomaTech's structural ceramic components, ceramic heaters, and electrostatic chucks businesses are likely to expand their revenue base, while its materials and process capabilities could open up more semiconductor equipment component use cases. For investors, the key is whether the company can convert the low-base domestic substitution opportunity into customer validation, capacity ramp-up, and volume growth in new products.

Risks

• China's semiconductor capex expansion may be slower than expected.
• Product-line expansion into modules may be slower than expected.
• Domestic supply-chain diversification may be slower than expected.
• There is uncertainty around customer validation and volume ramp-up for electrostatic chucks and new materials capabilities.
• The integration outcome and technology synergies from the planned acquisition of Jiangsu Horkheimo still need to be proven.

What to watch

• Whether demand from domestic SPE and wafer fab customers continues to grow.
• KomaTech's new capacity buildout and utilization ramp-up progress.
• Validation results and revenue contribution of electrostatic chucks across multiple customers.
• Revenue growth rates for structural ceramic components, ceramic heaters, and new product lines.
• Progress on the Jiangsu Horkheimo acquisition and the application of its gold plating technology in deposition and lithography equipment components.
• The persistence of semiconductor equipment localization in China and the preference for domestic component procurement.