Goldman Sachs expert call supports continuing to buy Chinese semiconductor equipment

Overview

This report summarizes Goldman Sachs' China memory expert call held on July 24, 2026, focusing on China's DRAM capacity expansion, product evolution, and memory price trends. The conclusion is positive, arguing that the experts' views validate Goldman Sachs' bullish stance on China's semiconductor equipment sector, with capacity expansion by domestic wafer fabs and memory makers over the coming years, along with higher adoption of domestic equipment, serving as the main drivers for related equipment companies.

Core views

There are three core views. First, domestic DRAM capacity in China remains in an expansion cycle, with annual capacity at industry leaders potentially more than doubling from current levels by 2030, and projects in multiple locations coming online around 2028 continuing to increase local DRAM supply. Second, domestic DRAM products are steadily improving; although they still lag global peers in performance such as speed, HBM3 and HBM3E remain important 2026E targets, and due to EUV constraints, domestic manufacturers may rely on DUV or innovative processes to advance high-end products. Third, memory price increases in 2H26 may be smaller than in 1H26, but AI demand remains strong, and global tier-one suppliers are unlikely in the short term to shift HBM capacity back to traditional DRAM, which supports continued memory price increases and stabilization in 2027E.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses the expert call takeaways format, mapping expert judgments on capacity, products, and prices to the investment logic for China's semiconductor equipment sector. Combined with Goldman Sachs' existing research framework on China's semiconductor self-sufficiency, accelerating momentum, capex, and process migration, it reaches the conclusion to continue buying Chinese semiconductor equipment-related companies.

Methodology notes

• expert_callChina Memory Expert Webinar

  Expert call takeaways

  Validate semiconductor equipment demand and the domestic substitution trend through expert judgments on China's DRAM expansion, product roadmap, and price trends.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs discloses that its factor framework compares stocks' growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples against the market and industry peers by percentile, with the composite factor being the average of growth, financial return, and inverse valuation percentiles.

• m_and_aM&A Rank

  M&A probability score

  Goldman Sachs discloses that covered stocks can be categorized into ranks 1 to 3 based on potential M&A probability, where rank 1 is high probability, rank 2 is medium probability, and rank 3 is low probability; if ranked 1 or 2, M&A factors may be incorporated into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NAURA

  Beneficiary target in Chinese semiconductor equipment

  Strengths

  Benefits from capacity expansion at domestic wafer fabs and memory makers, as well as higher adoption of domestic equipment.

  Weaknesses

  High-end equipment segments may still be constrained by key tools such as EUV.

  Comparison

  Compared with global tier-one equipment suppliers, domestic equipment still lags in some high-end segments, but its adoption in local production lines is increasing.

  Risks

  Capacity expansion pace below expectations, slower-than-expected domestic substitution, and declining memory prices.

• AMEC

  Beneficiary target in Chinese semiconductor equipment

  Strengths

  Benefits from equipment demand driven by domestic DRAM expansion and the trend of domestic substitution.

  Weaknesses

  Its product mix is relatively sensitive to specific process steps and customer capex timing.

  Comparison

  Within China's semiconductor equipment chain, it benefits alongside other domestic equipment companies from the expansion of local wafer fabs.

  Risks

  Customer expansion delays, equipment qualification falling short of expectations, and volatility in industry capex.

• ACM Research

  Beneficiary target in Chinese semiconductor equipment

  Strengths

  Rated Buy by Goldman Sachs and benefits from the localization trend in Chinese semiconductor equipment.

  Weaknesses

  This report does not elaborate on company-level financial and competitive details.

  Comparison

  Along with NAURA, AMEC, and Kematek, it is one of Goldman Sachs' recommended China semiconductor equipment-related names.

  Risks

  Domestic DRAM expansion underdelivering versus expectations, a downturn in the global semiconductor cycle, and customer concentration risk.

• Kematek

  Beneficiary target in Chinese semiconductor equipment

  Strengths

  Rated Buy by Goldman Sachs and benefits from domestic memory expansion and equipment localization.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide a detailed breakdown of the company's fundamentals.

  Comparison

  Mapped together with other China SPE Buy-rated names to the domestic expansion theme.

  Risks

  Technology qualification, delivery capability, customer capex, and industry price cycle risks.

Key data

• Expert call date2026-07-24Goldman Sachs hosted a China memory expert webinar.
• Domestic DRAM capacity outlookMay more than double from current levels by 2030Experts are positive on capacity expansion at leading domestic DRAM manufacturers over the coming years.
• Capacity ramp-up regionsHefei, Shanghai, BeijingExperts believe expansion projects in these regions should all be operational by 2028.
• Domestic DRAM high-end product targetHBM3 and HBM3E production targeted for 2026EExperts said domestic leaders still target advancing HBM3 and HBM3E production in 2026E.
• 3D DRAM progress timing2027EExperts believe there may be new progress in 3D DRAM product development.
• Memory price trend2H26 price increases smaller than 1H26, with support for further gains in 2027ESmartphone brands are somewhat resistant to rising costs, but AI demand in China and overseas remains strong.
• Disclosed covered stocks ratings and target pricesACM Research Buy $88.42; AMEC Buy Rmb388.50; Kematek Buy Rmb94.60; NAURA Buy Rmb757.00Rating and price information disclosed in the report.
• Goldman Sachs global equity rating distributionBuy 50%; Hold 34%; Sell 16%As of July 1, 2026, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research covered 3,104 stocks.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that China's memory capacity expansion and rising penetration of domestic equipment may drive order and revenue growth for local semiconductor equipment companies; AI demand supports memory prices, helping strengthen confidence among memory makers to expand capacity. The main beneficiary assets are concentrated in Chinese semiconductor equipment companies, especially NAURA, AMEC, ACM Research, and Kematek, which Goldman Sachs has rated Buy.

Risks

• Progress of China's domestic DRAM capacity expansion may fall short of expert expectations.
• Performance upgrades of domestic DRAM products may be slower than expected, especially if progress in HBM3, HBM3E, or 3D DRAM is hindered.
• Constraints from high-end equipment such as EUV may increase the difficulty of developing advanced memory products.
• Resistance from smartphone brands to rising costs may cap the increase in memory prices.
• AI demand may be weaker than expected, leading to lower-than-expected memory prices and long-term contract stability.
• If global tier-one memory suppliers adjust capacity allocation, the supply-demand balance of traditional DRAM may change.

What to watch

• Progress of relevant DRAM production lines in Hefei, Shanghai, and Beijing coming online by 2028.
• Whether leading domestic DRAM manufacturers achieve more than doubled capacity growth by 2030.
• 2026E production progress of domestic DRAM manufacturers in HBM3 and HBM3E.
• Whether 3D DRAM achieves substantive product development breakthroughs in 2027E.
• Whether memory price increases slow significantly in 3Q26 and 4Q26.
• Whether AI demand continues to support memory price increases and more long-term contracts in 2027E.
• The adoption ratio of domestic semiconductor equipment in newly added production lines.