Semiconductor components are entering a synchronized phase of cyclical upturn and domestic substitution
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Semiconductor components are entering a synchronized phase of cyclical upturn and domestic substitution
Caitong Securities believes that AI compute, high-end memory, and advanced-node capacity expansion are driving higher demand for semiconductor equipment and components. Combined with low domestic localization and supply-chain security needs, this creates an accelerating window for domestic component substitution.
- The global semiconductor cycle is clearly turning up: global semiconductor sales are expected to reach 7956 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, up 26.2% YoY, and could exceed 1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2026.
- Semiconductor equipment components account for about 70% of the total equipment cost and directly affect equipment performance, process stability, and production yield, making them a key foundational link for supply-chain self-reliance.
- The global semiconductor components market is about 315.3 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025 and is expected to reach 529.6 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032; the domestic localization rate is only about 7.1%, leaving broad room for substitution.
- The localization rate for high-end core categories such as electrostatic chucks and MFCs is below 5%, with overseas leaders still dominant; domestic companies are moving from isolated breakthroughs toward system-level supply.
- The report suggests focusing on domestic players such as Fuchuang Precision, Jiangfeng Electronics, Xinlai Applied Materials, Zhengfan Technology, Shengong Co., Kaide Quartz, Kema Technology, Maolai Optics, Hengyunchang, and Yingjie Electric.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the semiconductor equipment components industry, with the core judgment that the industry is in the early stage of a new upcycle. Demand from AI compute, high-performance computing, HBM, and advanced-node capacity expansion is lifting wafer fab capex, which in turn drives demand for equipment and upstream components. Meanwhile, overseas vendors still dominate high-end components, domestic localization remains low, and under geopolitics, export controls, and supply-chain security concerns, domestic substitution is entering an acceleration phase.
Core views
The report's key views are: first, semiconductor components are the foundational core of equipment, with high cost share and deep technical barriers, and they directly affect equipment performance and yield; second, the global semiconductor market and equipment market are recovering, with AI and HBM demand forming the main drivers of this round of cyclical upturn; third, rising localization of domestic equipment will synchronously release demand for upstream domestic component matching; fourth, subsegments such as mechanical parts, silicon parts, quartz parts, ceramic parts, vacuum valves, MFCs, RF power supplies, EFEMs, robotic arms, and optical components all have import-substitution opportunities; fifth, domestic companies with technical barriers, sticky downstream customers, and scalable shipment capability deserve more attention.
Analysis framework
The report uses a framework that combines industry cycle, capex, localization rate, and segment-by-segment decomposition. It first judges demand momentum from global semiconductor sales, equipment market size, wafer fab expansion, and advanced-node capex; then evaluates substitution room from component cost share, market size, competitive landscape, and localization rate; and finally organizes the analysis by component category to sort out technical barriers, overseas leaders, domestic progress, and key companies.
Methodology notes
Terminal demand - wafer fab expansion - equipment procurement - component demand
The report treats demand for AI, data centers, HBM, and advanced computing as the starting point, which then transmits upward to wafer-fab capex, semiconductor equipment procurement, and upstream component demand expansion.
Low localization rate combined with self-reliance and controllability demand
Using indicators such as an overall localization rate of about 7.1% and less than 5% localization for core categories like electrostatic chucks and MFCs, the report judges the domestic substitution space and policy-security characteristics.
Classify semiconductor components by function into mechanical, gas-liquid/vacuum, electrical, mechatronic, optical, and instrumentation categories
The report analyzes each category's application scenarios, technical barriers, market size, competitive landscape, and domestic company progress item by item to identify structural opportunities.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Fuchuang PrecisionA key domestic semiconductor component company to watch; representative of metal parts and precision components
- Strengths
- Has mass-production capability for 7 nm process components, with products covering structural parts and process parts, and has entered the supply chains of leading equipment vendors such as North Huachuang and AMEC.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not disclose its specific orders, earnings upside, or customer concentration risk.
- Comparison
- Compared with most domestic vendors still in the validation stage, Fuchuang Precision is more advanced in scaled mass production and advanced-node support.
- Risks
- Downstream capacity expansion coming in below expectations, slower customer validation, technology iteration risk, and capacity-expansion execution risk.
- Jiangfeng ElectronicsA key company to watch; related to silicon parts and domestic substitution in ceramics/electrostatic chucks
- Strengths
- Has a deep layout in semiconductor components and materials; the report notes its participation in the silicon parts market and its introduction of leading customers in electrostatic chuck-related directions.
- Weaknesses
- High-end categories still face technical and customer-certification barriers from overseas leaders.
- Comparison
- Compared with overseas players such as Silfex, Hana Materials, Mitsubishi Materials, and CoorsTek, domestic vendors are still in the catching-up and customer-introduction stage.
- Risks
- High-end customer certification missing expectations, intensified competition, and key material/process breakthroughs lagging expectations.
- Xinlai Applied MaterialsA key company to watch; a nameplate related to vacuum valves and gas-line valves
- Strengths
- Has achieved batch supply for gate valves and has broken through with customers on diaphragm valves and other gas-line valves, with rapid ramp-up.
- Weaknesses
- The high-end vacuum valve market still relies heavily on imports, and domestic vendors need to keep improving stability and product breadth.
- Comparison
- Overseas players still hold long-term advantages in high-end vacuum valves, while Xinlai Applied Materials represents a domestic substitution breakthrough path.
- Risks
- Long validation cycles for high-end valves, ramp-up below expectations, and raw-material/supply-chain constraints.
- Zhengfan TechnologyA key company to watch; related to gas delivery modules and GasBox products
- Strengths
- Its GasBox product has broken foreign monopoly and become a major domestic supplier in semiconductor gas delivery modules.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not disclose its coverage in high-end processes or its market share in the overseas competitive landscape.
- Comparison
- It has a first-mover advantage in the localization of gas/liquid management systems, but still faces long-term accumulated advantages of international vendors among high-end customers.
- Risks
- Downstream wafer fab expansion and equipment-order volatility, and product reliability validation missing expectations.
- Shengong Co.A key company to watch; the main domestic substitute player for silicon electrodes and silicon components
- Strengths
- The report says its silicon electrode business has become a main force in domestic substitution and is benefiting from growth in the silicon parts market for etching and the high growth rate of the China market.
- Weaknesses
- Silicon components require high-quality raw materials, brittle-material processing, and dimensional accuracy, so sustained mass-production capability remains critical.
- Comparison
- Compared with leading players in the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, domestic companies are still in the phase of localization introduction and rapid rise.
- Risks
- Higher processing difficulty from process upgrades, customer introduction missing expectations, and price competition.
- Kaide QuartzA key company to watch; a domestic substitution nameplate for high-end quartz products
- Strengths
- High-end quartz products are rapidly penetrating 12-inch production lines, benefiting from growth in the semiconductor quartz products market.
- Weaknesses
- Localization rates remain low for cutting-edge categories such as photomask substrates and high-end synthetic quartz.
- Comparison
- Domestic vendors have already made breakthroughs in photovoltaic-grade high-purity quartz sand, but semiconductor-grade high-end quartz still needs to catch up with overseas suppliers.
- Risks
- High-purity raw materials, precision processing, customer certification, and breakthroughs in high-end categories missing expectations.
- Kema TechnologyA key company to watch; related to advanced ceramic material components and electrostatic chucks
- Strengths
- The report notes that its electrostatic chucks have already been introduced to leading customers, benefiting from domestic substitution in ceramic electrostatic chucks.
- Weaknesses
- Domestic 12-inch high-end electrostatic chucks are still in customer validation or small-batch mass production stages.
- Comparison
- AMAT, LAM, SHINKO, and TOTO dominate the global electrostatic chuck market; domestic substitution room is large, but the gap remains obvious.
- Risks
- High-end electrostatic chuck mass production missing expectations, insufficient yield and stability, and competition from overseas leaders.
- Maolai OpticsA key company to watch; related to semiconductor optical components
- Strengths
- Benefits from the high unit value of optical components in high-end equipment and the demand for domestic substitution.
- Weaknesses
- The report does not disclose its specific semiconductor customers, product share, or breakthroughs in light-source systems.
- Comparison
- Photolithography light sources and high-end optical systems are still mainly dominated by overseas leaders, while domestic companies remain in the attack stage.
- Risks
- Long R&D cycles for high-end optics, customer certification missing expectations, and the industrialization progress of domestic lithography missing expectations.
- HengyunchangA key company to watch; a domestic substitution nameplate for RF power supplies
- Strengths
- Its RF power supplies have already achieved batch shipments and are expected to benefit from demand for semiconductor etching and thin-film deposition equipment.
- Weaknesses
- The global RF power supply market is still dominated by overseas vendors such as Advanced Energy and DAIHEN, and foreign companies have long held the upper hand in the domestic market.
- Comparison
- Compared with overseas leaders, domestic vendors are in the acceleration breakthrough stage and rely on support from downstream equipment makers and order validation.
- Risks
- RF power supply stability, matching algorithms, and batch application at customer sites missing expectations.
- Yingjie ElectricA key company to watch; a domestic substitution nameplate for RF power supplies
- Strengths
- The report says its RF power supplies have achieved batch shipments and are expected to benefit from domestic semiconductor equipment localization.
- Weaknesses
- The rise in high-end RF power supply demand also brings higher technical barriers and customer-certification pressure.
- Comparison
- Overseas vendors still dominate the global landscape, while Yingjie Electric represents a domestic power-supply vendor gradually emerging.
- Risks
- Product iteration missing expectations, equipment-maker order volatility, and intensified competition.
Key data
- Global semiconductor salesExpected to be 7956 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, up 26.2% YoY; may exceed 1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2026WSTS data and forecasts.
- Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment salesExpected to be 1330 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, 1450 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2026, and 1560 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2027SEMI basis; equipment demand rises along with capex and advanced-node capacity expansion.
- Global semiconductor industry capexAbout 1660 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, up 7% YoY; expected to be 2000 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2026, up 20% YoYEstimate by Semiconductor Intelligence.
- Semiconductor equipment component cost shareAbout 70%Components directly determine equipment performance, process precision, and production yield.
- Global semiconductor components market sizeAbout 315.3 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, expected to reach 529.6 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032, with a 2026-2032 CAGR of 7.80%QYResearch data.
- China semiconductor components market sizeAbout RMB 1743.5 hundred million in 2025Data from Huajing Industry Research Institute.
- Overall domestic localization rate for semiconductor componentsAbout 7.1%The report uses this to judge that the overall substitution room is huge.
- Domestic semiconductor equipment localization rateRaised from 25% in 2024 to 35%Data from the China Semiconductor Industry Association; higher equipment localization is expected to pull upstream components.
- Global AI chip market size1059.8 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, expected to be 3956.4 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032, with a 2026-2032 CAGR of 20.0%QYResearch statistics and forecast.
- Silicon parts market for etchingGlobal market: 18.19 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, 27.71 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2031; China market CAGR is about 10.33%China is growing faster than the global market; silicon electrodes and silicon rings are key consumables.
- Semiconductor quartz products marketAbout 7.23 hundred million U.S. dollars globally in 2025, expected to reach 13.11 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032, with a 2026-2032 CAGR of 9.0%Quartz products have a low cost share, but they matter for yield and process reliability.
- Global MFC marketAbout 10.5 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, approaching 20 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2035, with a 2026-2035 CAGR of 6.5%The high-end MFC market is concentrated, and domestic localization is still below 5%.
- Global RF generator marketAbout 21.49 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, expected to reach 32.11 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032, with a CAGR of 6.0%RF power supplies benefit from demand for etching, deposition, and other equipment.
- Global EFEM marketAbout 11.50 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, expected to reach 19.30 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032, with a CAGR of 7.4%China's production share is expected to rise, with growth leading the market.
- Global semiconductor robotic arm market14.25 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2025, 22.15 hundred million U.S. dollars in 2032, with a CAGR of 6.6%The market is dominated by U.S. and Japanese vendors, while domestic companies are increasing their share.
Impact & implications
If the report's judgment is realized, semiconductor components will benefit both from the expansion of global equipment investment and from higher domestic substitution rates. Opportunities for domestic companies will come not only from breakthroughs in a single product, but also from batch supply, product validation iteration, and platform-based expansion after entering equipment makers' and wafer fabs' supply chains. Investors should prioritize companies with clear core process barriers, access to leading customers, products already in ramp-up, and coverage of key component categories.
Risks
- Downstream demand missing expectations.
- Technology R&D missing expectations.
- Intensified market competition.
- Supply-chain and raw-material bottleneck risks.
- International trade and policy-control risks.
- Capacity expansion and operating-management risks.
What to watch
- Whether global semiconductor sales, WFE equipment investment, and wafer fab capex continue to be revised upward.
- The pace of capacity expansion for AI accelerators, HBM, and advanced-node logic chips.
- Whether domestic semiconductor equipment localization continues to rise and creates real order pull for upstream components.
- Changes in localization rates for key components, especially electrostatic chucks, MFCs, RF power supplies, light sources, vacuum valves, and high-end quartz products.
- Batch shipments, yield stability, and customer validation progress after domestic companies enter the supply chains of leading equipment makers and wafer fabs.
- The impact of export controls, trade policy, and supply-chain security policy changes on the domestic substitution pace.