Greater China semiconductors Report Interpretation

Overview

This Greater China semiconductor update reviews June-July production, trade, revenue, inventory and equipment indicators. Goldman Sachs concludes that China semiconductor demand remains solid and that generative AI, ADAS/autonomous-driving adoption, local suppliers' market-share gains and rising capex plans continue to support the sector.

Core views

Goldman Sachs interprets the June-July data as evidence of solid semiconductor demand in China. July IC production rose 20.7% year on year to 53bn units, accelerating from 18.8% in June and above the 15.0% growth recorded in July 2025. IC import volume increased 8.5% year on year in July, versus 6.6% in June, while import value rose 71.1%, only modestly below June's 72.3% growth. The combination implies a 57.8% year-on-year increase in IC import average selling prices, indicating that the sharp import-value growth was driven not only by volumes but also by higher unit values. Domestic industry revenue data reinforce this reading. China semiconductor total revenue rose 109.5% year on year and 10.4% month on month to US$36.1bn in June, compared with 91.5% year-on-year growth in May and 14.2% in June 2025. China IC export value increased 116.6% year on year and 1.4% month on month to US$38.7bn in July, following 121.9% growth in June. Year-to-date 2026 IC exports reached US$216.0bn, up 99.3% year on year. Goldman Sachs views this continuing export expansion since 2024 as part of the broader strength in China semiconductors. The report also notes that the broader Greater China supply chain remains active, although Taiwan revenue growth moderated. Aggregate revenue for major Taiwan-listed semiconductor companies rose 39.4% year on year and 3.9% month on month in July, versus 49.2% year-on-year growth in June and 14.8% in July 2025. By subsector, July month-on-month revenue changes were +5.2% for foundries, -10.4% for IC design and +11.7% for OSAT. China electronics-sector inventory days were 57 in June, above the 54, 53 and 53 days recorded in June 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Equipment-import data present a more mixed near-term picture, but Goldman Sachs emphasizes forward capex signals. Semiconductor production-equipment import value was down 3.0% year on year but up 47.8% month on month to US$3.7bn in June, compared with a 9.0% year-on-year decline in May. Semiconductor test-equipment imports fell 6.8% year on year and rose 29.4% month on month to US$46.1m; import ASP declined 6.9% month on month to US$35.8k. Global lithography import volume declined 13% year on year to 49 units, while ASP increased 18% to US$17.2m. Imports from the Netherlands were flat in volume at 16 units, with ASP up 8% to US$50.1m. Goldman Sachs points to continuous bidding by Chinese semiconductor manufacturers through August 2026 as evidence consistent with an upward capex trend in coming years. The report highlights orders involving lithography, metrology, deposition, inspection, testing and other manufacturing equipment. It argues that generative AI, ADAS/autonomous-driving demand and local suppliers' expanding China-market share should support development across IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging and semiconductor production equipment. Within the sector, it continues to prefer companies with company-specific drivers such as new-product ramp-ups, product-mix upgrades and share gains, and lists ten Buy-rated names.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines monthly official production and customs data with company revenue data, inventory days and equipment-import indicators to assess demand, pricing and supply-chain activity. It then uses recent manufacturer bidding activity as a forward-looking indication of semiconductor capex and links the data to structural drivers including generative AI, ADAS/autonomous driving and local supplier share expansion.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Monthly production, import/export, revenue, inventory and equipment-bidding analysis

  The report reads production volumes, trade values and ASPs as demand and pricing indicators, uses inventory days to provide supply-chain context, and treats equipment orders as evidence relevant to future capacity spending.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Semiconductor supply-chain analysis across IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging and equipment

  Goldman Sachs connects end-demand drivers and local-market share gains to activity across multiple semiconductor value-chain stages.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kematek

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• SMIC

  Listed as Buy-rated; the report also notes a 2Q26 beat.

  Strengths

  2Q26 beat noted by the report.

• Hua Hong

  Listed as Buy-rated and referenced in recent manufacturing-equipment bidding.

  Strengths

  Referenced in recent equipment procurement activity.

• AMEC

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• Horizon Robotics

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• Biren

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• MetaX

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• Naura

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• ACM Research

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

• Cambricon

  Listed as Buy-rated in the report's China semiconductor preference list.

Key data

• China IC production53bn units; +20.7% YoY in Jul 2026Versus +18.8% YoY in Jun 2026 and +15.0% YoY in Jul 2025.
• China IC import volume+8.5% YoY in Jul 2026Versus +6.6% YoY in Jun 2026.
• China IC import value+71.1% YoY in Jul 2026Versus +72.3% YoY in Jun; implies +57.8% YoY IC import ASP growth.
• China semiconductor revenueUS$36.1bn; +109.5% YoY and +10.4% MoM in Jun 2026Versus +91.5% YoY in May 2026.
• China IC export valueUS$38.7bn; +116.6% YoY and +1.4% MoM in Jul 2026Year-to-date 2026 exports were US$216.0bn, up 99.3% YoY.
• Taiwan-listed semiconductor revenue+39.4% YoY and +3.9% MoM in Jul 2026Versus +49.2% YoY in Jun 2026; foundry, IC-design and OSAT revenue changed +5.2%/-10.4%/+11.7% MoM.
• China electronics inventory days57 days in Jun 2026Above 54, 53 and 53 days in Jun 2025, 2024 and 2023.
• Semiconductor production-equipment importsUS$3.7bn; -3.0% YoY and +47.8% MoM in Jun 2026The year-on-year decline improved from -9.0% in May.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs views the production, trade and revenue data as confirming solid China semiconductor demand. It argues that generative AI, ADAS/autonomous driving, local supplier share gains and continuing manufacturer equipment bids support the sector's development and a rising capex trend, particularly across IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging and semiconductor production equipment.