China semiconductor imports and exports surged in April, with demand still resilient

Overview

This report tracks high-frequency April data for the Greater China semiconductor industry, including China's IC production, imports, exports, semiconductor revenue, inventory days, revenue of Taiwan-listed semiconductor companies, and semiconductor equipment imports and bidding activity. The overall conclusion is that March-to-April data continue to show resilient China semiconductor demand, with the industry chain maintaining a positive trend supported by generative AI, ADAS/AD, rising domestic supplier share, and increasing capital expenditure.

Core views

The core views are: first, April IC import and export values rose sharply year over year, indicating that end demand and industry activity remain strong; second, IC output growth accelerated further from March, supporting the continuation of China semiconductor momentum; third, inventory days were basically in line with recent averages and did not show obvious inventory imbalance; fourth, revenue at major Taiwan semiconductor companies still grew year over year in April but declined sequentially, with foundry, IC design, and OSAT showing diverging sequential performance; fifth, although SPE import value declined both year over year and month over month, test equipment imports were strong, and Chinese semiconductor companies still had ongoing bidding in May, reinforcing the view of future capex upside.

Analysis framework

The report uses an industry high-frequency data tracking approach, combining customs import/export data, IC output, semiconductor revenue, inventory days, revenue of Taiwan-listed companies, and equipment bidding information to assess demand, inventory, capital expenditure, and domestic supply chain expansion trends in Greater China semiconductors.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency trackingIC production, import/export, and inventory monitoring

  Assess semiconductor demand and supply conditions through output, import value, export value, ASP, and inventory days.

  The report focuses on comparing April 2026 data with March 2026 and the same period last year, observing year-over-year and month-over-month changes to identify demand strength, inventory pressure, and industry momentum trends.

• Company preference screeningCompany-specific drivers

  Prefer companies with new product ramp-ups, product mix upgrades, and share gains.

  The report argues that, against a backdrop of stable industry demand, companies with their own growth catalysts are more attractive, especially those benefiting from generative AI, ADAS/AD, advanced nodes, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment trends.

• Goldman Sachs frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock characteristics across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  The disclosure states that GS Factor Profile uses forward sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation multiples to compare stocks against the market and peers on a percentile basis.

• Goldman Sachs frameworkM&A Rank

  Rate the probability of a company becoming an M&A target on a scale from 1 to 3.

  The disclosure explains that M&A Rank 1 indicates a relatively high probability of acquisition, 2 indicates a medium probability, and 3 indicates a low probability; for companies ranked 1 or 2, Goldman Sachs may incorporate M&A factors into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kematek

  Listed as one of the report's buy-preferred stocks

  Strengths

  Benefits from the expansion of China's domestic semiconductor supply chain and company-specific drivers.

  Weaknesses

  The report excerpt does not provide company-level financial details.

  Comparison

  Forms part of the China semiconductor preferred basket together with other buy-list names.

  Risks

  Performance could come under pressure if industry capex slows or domestic substitution progresses more slowly than expected.

• SMIC

  Listed as one of the report's buy-preferred stocks and noted for 1Q26 gross margin upside

  Strengths

  Benefits from advanced nodes, domestic foundry demand, and the China semiconductor trend.

  Weaknesses

  May be affected by export controls, equipment availability, and the capex cycle.

  Comparison

  A representative name in the report's favored foundry and advanced-node chain.

  Risks

  Geopolitical restrictions, constraints on advanced equipment imports, and demand volatility.

• Hua Hong

  Listed as one of the report's buy-preferred stocks

  Strengths

  Benefits from domestic foundry demand and resilient China market demand.

  Weaknesses

  The excerpt does not disclose specific quarterly financials or target price information.

  Comparison

  In the same foundry beneficiary direction as SMIC.

  Risks

  Changes in foundry pricing, capacity utilization, and capex pace.

• AMEC

  Listed as one of the report's buy-preferred stocks

  Strengths

  Benefits from semiconductor equipment localization in China and the upward capex trend.

  Weaknesses

  April SPE import value declined both YoY and MoM, showing divergence in equipment-chain data.

  Comparison

  Alongside Naura and ACMR, it is one of the domestic semiconductor equipment beneficiaries.

  Risks

  Slower bidding, delayed customer capex, and weaker-than-expected technology iteration.

• Naura

  Listed as one of the report's buy-preferred stocks

  Strengths

  Benefits from domestic equipment demand, sustained bidding, and China semiconductor expansion.

  Weaknesses

  No single-company order or financial data are provided in the report.

  Comparison

  A core domestic semiconductor equipment beneficiary alongside AMEC and ACMR.

  Risks

  Volatility in equipment imports and domestic order timing, as well as uncertainty in industry capex.

• Cambricon

  Listed as one of the report's buy-preferred stocks

  Strengths

  May benefit from domestic compute and AI chip demand driven by generative AI.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation and earnings visibility may be sensitive to market expectations.

  Comparison

  Together with Horizon Robotics, Biren, and MetaX, it reflects the AI and advanced computing theme.

  Risks

  AI demand volatility, intensifying competition, and policy and supply chain constraints.

• China semiconductor industry

  Core coverage object of the report

  Strengths

  IC import value, export value, and output all grew strongly year over year, while inventory days remained near recent averages.

  Weaknesses

  Some equipment import indicators weakened, and revenue at Taiwan semiconductor companies declined sequentially.

  Comparison

  Compared with the same period in 2025, many 2026 data points have clearly accelerated.

  Risks

  External export controls, sanctions restrictions, the capex cycle, downstream demand, and inventory changes.

Key data

• April IC import volume+11.2% YoYThe growth rate in April 2026 was lower than March 2026's +14.5% YoY.
• April IC import value+54.7% YoYMarch 2026 was +53.7% YoY, and implied April IC import ASP increased 39.1% YoY.
• April IC output48 billion units, +22.1% YoYMarch 2026 was +20.6% YoY, and April 2025 was +4.0% YoY.
• March total semiconductor revenueUS$26.7 billion, +74.1% YoY, +12.7% MoMFebruary 2026 grew 57.6% YoY, and March 2025 grew 8.6% YoY.
• April combined revenue of major Taiwan-listed semiconductor companies+15.2% YoY, -2.9% MoMSequential revenue changes for foundry, IC design, and OSAT were -0.8%, -17.6%, and +1.6%, respectively.
• April SPE import valueUS$300 million, -4.2% YoY, -19.8% MoMMarch 2026 was +1.0% YoY, and April 2025 was -8.9% YoY.
• April semiconductor test equipment import valueUS$57.2 million, +48.4% YoY, +46.6% MoMImport ASP rose 234.9% MoM to US$59,200.
• April IC export valueUS$31.1 billion, +99.6% YoY, +6.6% MoMYear-to-date 2026 export value was US$103.6 billion, up 83.5% YoY.
• March inventory days in China's electronics industry55 daysMarch 2025, 2024, and 2023 were 53, 54, and 56 days, respectively, broadly in line with the recent average.

Impact & implications

The report is mildly positive for China's semiconductor industry chain: strong IC import and export growth, improved output, and stable inventory collectively support the view that demand remains resilient. If generative AI, ADAS/AD, and domestic substitution continue to advance, related IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment companies may benefit; meanwhile, sustained bidding and higher expected capex favor domestic equipment and materials suppliers.

Risks

• Semiconductor equipment imports and capital expenditure may be volatile; April SPE import value declined both YoY and MoM.
• Geopolitics, the BIS entity list, U.S. sanctions, and export controls may affect some China semiconductor companies and their supply chains.
• Revenue at major Taiwan semiconductor companies declined sequentially in April, with IC design showing a particularly large sequential drop, suggesting near-term demand or order timing divergence.
• If progress in generative AI, ADAS/AD, or domestic substitution falls short of expectations, industry growth drivers may weaken.
• If inventories move from the current near-average level into accumulation, prices, capacity utilization, and orders may come under pressure.

What to watch

• Whether IC import value, export value, output, and ASP continue to show high year-over-year growth in subsequent months.
• Whether inventory days in China's electronics industry continue to stay near recent average levels.
• Whether revenue at Taiwan-listed semiconductor companies recovers sequentially, especially in IC design and foundry.
• Whether bidding activity and capex plans among China semiconductor companies continue to increase.
• Whether divergence in test equipment, lithography equipment, and SPE import data narrows.
• Actual orders and revenue realization from generative AI, ADAS/AD, advanced nodes, advanced packaging, and domestic equipment substitution.