Greater China semiconductor June IC import and export values surged YoY, with demand still appearing resilient

Overview

This report tracks monthly data for the Greater China semiconductor industry for May-June, including China's IC production, imports, exports, semiconductor revenue, inventory days, semiconductor equipment imports, and monthly revenue of major Taiwanese semiconductor companies. The conclusion is that semiconductor demand in the China market remains resilient, with industry growth supported by generative AI, ADAS/AD, advanced nodes, rising domestic supplier share, and upward revisions to capital expenditure plans.

Core views

The core views include: first, June IC import value and export value posted significant YoY growth, and import ASP moved higher, indicating support from both demand and value; second, May IC output and China's semiconductor revenue continued to maintain high YoY growth; third, major Taiwanese semiconductor companies saw both YoY and MoM revenue improvement in June, with foundry, IC design, and OSAT all recording MoM growth; fourth, although SPE import value declined YoY in May, testing equipment import value and ASP for some lithography equipment remained strong; fifth, recent tender activity by Chinese semiconductor manufacturers has continued, reinforcing the view of rising capital expenditure over the coming years.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly industry data tracking approach, comparing China's IC output, import/export volumes and values, ASP, inventory days, semiconductor revenue, equipment imports, and Taiwanese semiconductor company revenue on a YoY, MoM, and historical same-period basis, and combines this with vendor tender information to assess demand, capital expenditure, and industry chain conditions.

Methodology notes

• Monthly industry data trackingYoY and MoM comparison

  Identify trends in semiconductor demand, pricing, and revenue through YoY and MoM changes.

  The report compares data from May-June 2026 with the prior month and the same period last year to assess changes in conditions for IC production, imports, exports, Taiwanese semiconductor revenue, and equipment imports.

• Inventory analysisDOI inventory days

  Measure electronics manufacturing inventory levels using days of inventory.

  China's electronics industry inventory days in May 2026 were 62 days, above the 58/56/60 days recorded in May 2025/2024/2023.

• Goldman Sachs disclosure frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock characteristics across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  The disclosure page explains that this framework uses analyst forecasts and standardized rankings to assess stocks' growth, return, and valuation characteristics relative to the market and industry peers.

• Goldman Sachs disclosure frameworkM&A Rank

  Use a score from 1 to 3 to measure the probability that a covered company becomes an M&A target.

  The disclosure page states that 1 represents high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; some target prices may incorporate M&A factors.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Chinese semiconductor stock portfolio

  Directly benefits from growth in China's semiconductor demand, output, imports, and exports

  Strengths

  IC import value, export value, output, and semiconductor revenue all show strong YoY growth; generative AI, ADAS/AD, and rising domestic market share provide structural support.

  Weaknesses

  Electronics industry inventory days are above the same period in recent years, and import values for some semiconductor equipment declined both YoY and MoM.

  Comparison

  June IC import value YoY growth was higher than in May, and June IC export value YoY growth was also higher than in May; May IC output YoY growth was slightly higher than in April.

  Risks

  High inventory, equipment import volatility, export controls, sanctions restrictions, and changes in capital expenditure pacing may affect the industry chain.

• Major Taiwanese semiconductor companies

  Serve as a monthly revenue proxy for Greater China semiconductor conditions

  Strengths

  Combined June revenue rose 49.2% YoY and 7.0% MoM, with foundry, IC design, and OSAT all growing MoM.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide company-level details on margins or order visibility.

  Comparison

  June YoY growth was significantly higher than May's +26.3% and also above June 2025's +20.7%.

  Risks

  End-demand volatility, inventory cycles, customer concentration, and geopolitical policy may affect the sustainability of subsequent revenue.

• Semiconductor equipment and lithography/testing equipment chain

  Affected by China's domestic semiconductor capital expenditure and tender activity

  Strengths

  Testing equipment import value rose 49.8% YoY, and Chinese manufacturers still had tenders for electronic specialty gases and testing equipment in July.

  Weaknesses

  May SPE import value fell 9.0% YoY and 16.1% MoM, while lithography equipment import volume declined YoY.

  Comparison

  Testing equipment import value performed better than overall SPE import value; lithography equipment ASP rose YoY but import volume fell.

  Risks

  Equipment export restrictions, import licensing, order delivery timing, and the pace of capital expenditure realization are key uncertainties.

Key data

• June 2026 IC import volume+6.6% YoYMay was -1.0% YoY.
• June 2026 IC import value+72.3% YoYMay was +68.0% YoY, implying June IC import ASP grew 61.6% YoY.
• May 2026 IC output50 billion units, +22.9% YoYApril was +22.1% YoY, and May 2025 was +11.5% YoY.
• May 2026 total semiconductor revenue in ChinaUS$32.0bn, +87.2% YoY, +10.7% MoMApril YoY growth was +78.3%, and May 2025 YoY growth was +14.1%.
• May 2026 inventory days in China's electronics industry62 daysAbove the 58/56/60 days recorded in May 2025/2024/2023.
• June 2026 IC export valueUS$38.2bn, +121.9% YoY, +7.5% MoM2026 year-to-date exports were US$177.3bn, up 95.9% YoY.
• Combined June 2026 revenue of major Taiwanese semiconductor companies+49.2% YoY, +7.0% MoMMay YoY growth was +26.3%, and June 2025 YoY growth was +20.7%.
• June 2026 MoM revenue by Taiwan segmentFoundry +6.2%, IC design +15.9%, OSAT +3.2%All on a MoM basis.
• May 2026 SPE import valueUS$2.5bn, -9.0% YoY, -16.1% MoMApril YoY growth was -4.2%.
• May 2026 semiconductor testing equipment import valueUS$35.6m, +49.8% YoY, -37.7% MoMImport ASP fell 41.0% MoM to US$38.4k.
• May 2026 China lithography equipment import volume and ASP36 units, -40% YoY; ASP US$8.3m, +64% YoYIncluding lithography machines and other lithography equipment, HS code: 84862031、84862039.
• May 2026 China lithography equipment imports from the Netherlands8 units, -38% YoY; ASP US$34.4m, +72% YoYThe report separately presents lithography equipment data sourced from the Netherlands.

Impact & implications

These data support the view that China's semiconductor demand remains resilient and reinforce medium-term opportunities across advanced nodes, generative AI, IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment. For portfolios, the report prefers names with clear company-level catalysts rather than those merely passively exposed to industry beta.

Risks

• China's electronics industry inventory days rose to 62 days, above the same period in past years; if demand slows, inventory pressure may build.
• SPE import value fell 9.0% YoY and 16.1% MoM in May 2026, indicating that not all parts of the equipment chain are improving in sync.
• Lithography equipment import volume declined YoY, and the report discloses regulatory risks including the U.S. BIS Entity List and U.S. sanctions restrictions.
• The report's view relies on monthly data, and short-term high YoY growth may be affected by base effects, pricing, and export timing.
• Goldman Sachs discloses that it may have investment banking or other business relationships with covered companies, and investors should exercise caution in light of these disclosures.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent IC import value, export value, and ASP can continue to maintain high growth.
• Whether inventory days in China's electronics manufacturing industry will fall back from 62 days or remain above historical same-period levels.
• Whether Chinese semiconductor manufacturers' tenders and capital expenditure plans will convert into actual equipment orders and revenue.
• Whether the MoM trends in foundry, IC design, and OSAT within the monthly revenue of major Taiwanese semiconductor companies can continue.
• The speed at which advanced nodes, generative AI, ADAS/AD, and rising domestic supplier share translate into company-level earnings.
• The impact of U.S. export controls, entity list measures, and sanctions restrictions on China's semiconductor industry chain.