July IC Import and Export Values Grew Strongly; Goldman Sachs Maintains Positive View on China Semiconductors

Overview

This report tracks monthly semiconductor data for Greater China from June to July 2026. The data show that China's IC production, import value, and export value all maintained strong YoY growth. Accordingly, the report concludes that semiconductor demand in China remains resilient and maintains a positive view on China's semiconductor industry trend.

Core views

July IC import volume increased 8.5% YoY, while import value increased 71.1% YoY, implying a 57.8% YoY increase in the average IC import selling price.July IC export value increased 116.6% YoY to US$38.7bn; year-to-date 2026 export value reached US$216.0bn, up 99.3% YoY.Generative AI, ADAS/autonomous driving trends, expanding market share for local suppliers, and increased capital expenditure plans are the key supports for industry growth.The report is positive on the contribution of advanced process nodes and generative AI to semiconductor IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment.

Analysis framework

The report uses monthly semiconductor operating and trade data for China, tracking indicators including IC output, import and export volume and value, average selling prices, industry revenue, inventory days, equipment imports, and revenue of major Taiwan semiconductor companies, while incorporating recent tender activity to assess demand and capital expenditure trends.

Methodology notes

• Industry Data TrackingMonthly Semiconductor Operating and Trade Indicator Analysis

  Assessing industry conditions through output, trade value, revenue, inventory, and equipment import data

  The report compares monthly and YoY changes to observe shifts in China's semiconductor demand, pricing, supply chain, and capital expenditure.

• Stock SelectionCompany-Specific Catalyst Framework

  New-product volume ramp-ups, product mix upgrades, and market-share gains

  The report favors stocks with clear company-specific drivers rather than those relying solely on industry beta.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SMIC

  Beneficiary of China's foundry sector and localization substitution

  Strengths

  The report lists it as a Buy and notes that its 2Q26 results exceeded expectations.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide specific valuation, earnings forecasts, or a target price.

  Comparison

  Along with other China semiconductor Buy-rated names, it benefits from advanced process nodes, AI, and expanding local market share.

  Risks

  Industry demand volatility, capital expenditure execution, and technology and regulatory restrictions.

• Hua Hong

  Beneficiary of China's foundry sector

  Strengths

  Listed as a Buy and benefits from China's semiconductor industry trend.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose company-level operating data.

  Comparison

  Like SMIC, it belongs to the China foundry segment favored by the report.

  Risks

  Foundry cycle, capacity utilization, and competition risks.

• AMEC、Naura、ACMR

  Beneficiaries of semiconductor equipment and domestic capital expenditure

  Strengths

  All are listed as Buys; the report notes that Chinese manufacturers continue to issue tenders, supporting the view of rising equipment capital expenditure.

  Weaknesses

  Equipment import data still show a YoY decline, and the report does not provide order and earnings details for each company.

  Comparison

  Compared with IC design and foundry names, they benefit more directly from equipment procurement and production-line expansion.

  Risks

  Tender conversion, customers' capital expenditure timing, and technology and supply chain restrictions.

• Horizon Robotics、Biren、MetaX、Cambricon

  Beneficiaries of AI and intelligent-driving semiconductors

  Strengths

  All are listed as Buys; the report views generative AI and ADAS/autonomous driving as growth drivers for China's semiconductor industry.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide revenue, valuation, or market-share data for each company.

  Comparison

  Compared with manufacturing and equipment segments, they mainly benefit from demand for AI computing power and intelligent-driving applications.

  Risks

  Product commercialization, intensifying competition, customer adoption, and regulatory restrictions.

Key data

• July IC import value YoY growth71.1%July 2026; June was 72.3%.
• July IC export valueUS$38.7bn, up 116.6% YoYUp 1.4% MoM.
• July IC output53 billion units, up 20.7% YoYJune increased 18.8% YoY.
• China total semiconductor revenue in JuneUS$36.1bn, up 109.5% YoYUp 10.4% MoM.
• June electronics manufacturing inventory days57 daysHigher than 54 days, 53 days, and 53 days in the same periods of 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively.
• July revenue of major Taiwan semiconductor companiesUp 39.4% YoYUp 3.9% MoM, below the 49.2% YoY growth rate in June.
• June lithography equipment import volume49 units, down 13% YoYAverage selling price increased 18% YoY to US$17.2m.

Impact & implications

Strong growth in IC trade values and output supports the view of resilient demand, but rising inventory days and YoY declines in certain equipment imports indicate that industry conditions are not without structural divergence. Investment focus should be on companies that benefit from AI demand, advances in leading-edge process nodes, localization substitution, and capital expenditure expansion, and that also possess new-product or market-share catalysts.

Risks

• Semiconductor demand, pricing, and inventory cycles may weaken.
• Inventory days are above the levels of the same period in the past three years, potentially reflecting supply-chain inventory pressure.
• YoY declines in semiconductor equipment and test equipment imports create uncertainty around the pace of capital expenditure recovery.
• Export controls, sanctions, and other regulatory requirements may affect relevant companies and supply chains.
• The rollout of AI, advanced process nodes, and localization substitution may be slower than expected.

What to watch

• Whether IC import value, average import selling price, and import volume can continue to improve in tandem.
• Whether the high YoY growth rate in IC export value can be sustained.
• Subsequent monthly changes in China's IC output and total semiconductor revenue.
• Whether electronics manufacturing inventory days continue to rise or begin to decline.
• Execution of tenders, equipment purchases, and capital expenditure plans by Chinese semiconductor manufacturers.
• Revenue growth of major Taiwan semiconductor companies, as well as monthly divergence across design, foundry, and OSAT segments.