Goldman Sachs: China IC imports, exports, and output maintained strong year-over-year growth in March; remains positive on China's semiconductor trend

Overview

This report tracks monthly semiconductor data in Greater China. Goldman Sachs notes that in March 2026, China's IC production, imports, and exports continued to post strong year-over-year growth, and the January-March data indicate that semiconductor demand in the China market remains solid. On inventories, days of inventory for China's electronics industry were 33 days in January-February 2026, close to the levels in the same period of 2025 and 2024, and significantly below the 69 days in the same period of 2023.

Core views

Goldman Sachs remains positive on China's semiconductor trend. The core reasons include: generative AI and China's ADAS/AD trends bringing incremental demand; domestic suppliers continuing to gain share in the China market; increasing capital expenditure plans; and potential benefits for advanced process technology, RISC-V, IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging, and semiconductor equipment. In stock selection, Goldman Sachs prefers names with company-specific drivers such as new product ramp-up, product mix upgrades, and share gains.

Analysis framework

The report mainly adopts a monthly industry data tracking approach. By combining China customs data, National Bureau of Statistics data, revenues of major listed Taiwan semiconductor companies, days of inventory in electronics manufacturing, and semiconductor vendor tender information, it assesses demand, inventories, capital expenditure, and localization trends in China's semiconductor industry.

Methodology notes

• Monthly industry trackingic production/import/export monthly monitor

  Observe semiconductor demand and pricing trends through changes in output, import volume, import value, export value, and ASP.

  The report compares March 2026 with January-February, the same period last year, and historical cycles to determine whether IC production and trade data continue the recovery.

• Inventory cycle analysisdays of inventory

  Use days of inventory in the electronics manufacturing industry to measure industry inventory pressure.

  DOI was 33 days in January-February 2026, below the 69 days in the same period of 2023, indicating that current inventory pressure is relatively manageable.

• Company quality and valuation frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs compares stock characteristics across four dimensions: Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated.

  This framework is used for cross-company comparison among covered stocks, but the main body of this report is more focused on interpreting monthly industry data.

• M&A probability frameworkM&A Rank

  Goldman Sachs uses scores from 1 to 3 to assess the probability that covered companies become M&A targets.

  The appendix disclosure states that this framework may affect the M&A component in target prices, but this report does not provide specific M&A judgments on individual companies.

• Database toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary database providing financial statement history, forecasts, and ratios.

  The appendix disclosure notes that Quantum can be used for in-depth company analysis and cross-company comparison.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China semiconductor sector

  Core covered industry

  Strengths

  IC output, import value, export value, and semiconductor revenue all maintained strong year-over-year growth, while inventory days remain relatively manageable.

  Weaknesses

  The industry is still affected by cyclical fluctuations, export controls, and the pace of capital expenditure.

  Comparison

  Multiple March data points were stronger than January-February, showing marginal improvement in recovery momentum.

  Risks

  If end demand slows, inventories rise, or policy restrictions intensify, industry conditions may weaken.

• Semiconductor equipment and SPE

  Beneficiary direction of rising capital expenditure

  Strengths

  SPE import value rose sharply month-over-month in March, and in April tenders or orders were seen from vendors such as GTA Semi, Runpeng Semi, and Echip Semi.

  Weaknesses

  Import value of some testing equipment remained negative year-over-year, and lithography equipment import volume declined year-over-year.

  Comparison

  March SPE import value turned to +1.0% YoY, improving from -26.9% in February.

  Risks

  Equipment imports, advanced equipment supply, and export controls may affect delivery and capacity expansion.

• Foundry, IC design, and OSAT

  Key links in the Greater China semiconductor industry chain

  Strengths

  Revenue of major Taiwan semiconductor companies rose 32.7% YoY in March, with foundry, IC design, and OSAT all posting month-over-month growth.

  Weaknesses

  The cyclical sensitivity and order visibility of different segments may diverge.

  Comparison

  March revenue growth was higher than the +14.3% YoY in February.

  Risks

  If AI and consumer electronics demand fall short of expectations, revenue growth may slow.

• Kematek, SMIC, Hua Hong, AMEC, Horizon Robotics, Biren, MetaX, Naura, ACMR, SICC, AccoTest, Cambricon

  Buy-rated or preferred names listed by Goldman Sachs

  Strengths

  The report believes these companies may benefit from company-specific drivers, product upgrades, share gains, advanced process technology, AI, and expansion of the domestic supply chain.

  Weaknesses

  Individual stock performance still depends on order delivery, product ramp-up, profitability, and valuation digestion.

  Comparison

  The report explicitly mentions target price increases for Kematek and Horizon Robotics.

  Risks

  Valuation volatility, policy restrictions, technology iteration, and intensifying competition may affect investment returns.

Key data

• March China IC import value+53.7% YoYAbove +39.8% YoY in January-February 2026.
• March China IC import volume+14.5% YoYAbove +9.0% YoY in January-February 2026.
• March China IC import ASP+34.3% YoYImplied from changes in import value and import volume.
• March China IC outputabout 48bn units, +20.6% YoYAbove +12.4% YoY in January-February 2026.
• China electronics industry DOI in January-February 202633 daysCompared with 32/31/69 days in the same period of 2025/2024/2023, respectively.
• China semiconductor revenue in February 2026US$23.6bn, +56.9% YoY, +3.5% MoMJanuary 2026 was +46.8% YoY, and February 2025 was +6.6% YoY.
• March revenue of major Taiwan semiconductor companies+32.7% YoY, +30.0% MoMFoundry, IC design, and OSAT revenue rose +29.4%, +47.8%, and +16.9% MoM, respectively.
• March China SPE import valueUS$3.7bn, +1.0% YoY, +119.3% MoMFebruary was -26.9% YoY, and March 2025 was -9.7% YoY.
• March China IC export valueUS$29.1bn, +84.9% YoY, +34.6% MoMYear-to-date 2026 reached US$72.5bn, up 72.5% YoY.
• March China lithography equipment import volume56 units, -19% YoYASP of imports from global sources was US$15.2m, up 12% YoY.
• March lithography equipment import volume from the Netherlands19 units, -5% YoYASP from the Netherlands was US$41.3m, down 4% YoY.

Impact & implications

The investment implication of the report is that the recovery in China's semiconductor demand and the expansion of the domestic supply chain are still continuing. Strong import and export data, low inventory days, and equipment tender activity together support the view of healthy industry conditions. If generative AI, ADAS/AD, and domestic substitution continue to advance, companies with product upgrade, share gain, and capital expenditure beneficiary characteristics may receive stronger fundamental support.

Risks

• A renewed downturn in the global semiconductor cycle could lead to slower growth in production, imports, exports, and revenue.
• If inventory days rebound from current low levels, the judgment of demand recovery may weaken.
• U.S. export controls, the BIS Entity List, or sanctions restrictions may affect equipment, technology, and related securities trading.
• If capacity expansion by Chinese domestic suppliers falls short of expectations, capital expenditure and equipment tenders may fail to continue delivering.
• If demand related to generative AI, ADAS/AD, or advanced process technology is lower than expected, it will affect the report's positive judgment.
• Some names have relatively high valuations, and if earnings delivery is insufficient, stock prices may come under pressure.

What to watch

• Whether the year-over-year growth rates of China's IC import value, export value, import ASP, and output continue.
• Whether DOI in China's electronics industry stays at low levels or inventory starts to accumulate again.
• Year-over-year and month-over-month changes in China's imports of semiconductor equipment, lithography equipment, and testing equipment.
• Whether tenders and orders from vendors such as GTA Semi, Runpeng Semi, and Echip Semi translate into actual capital expenditure.
• Monthly revenue of major Taiwan semiconductor companies, especially in foundry, IC design, and OSAT.
• Progress of orders and product ramp-up related to generative AI, RISC-V, ADAS/AD, and domestic substitution.