Strong Growth in China’s IC Import/Export Values in April; Goldman Sachs Remains Bullish on Semiconductor Capex Upside

Overview

This report analyzes the latest high-frequency data for the Greater China semiconductor industry for April 2026. The data show robust growth in both production and import/export of integrated circuits (ICs) in China. Export value nearly doubled year-on-year, while import value rose sharply and average selling prices increased significantly—indicating strong underlying demand and a possible shift toward higher-value products. Meanwhile, industry inventory levels remain healthy. Driven by incremental demand from generative AI and autonomous driving (ADAS/AD), ongoing market share gains by domestic suppliers, and an upward trend in capital expenditure, Goldman Sachs maintains its optimistic view on China’s semiconductor sector and reiterates 'Buy' ratings on key players across the value chain—including SMIC, Naura, and AMEC.

Core views

Demand and production remain strong. In April 2026, China’s IC production reached 48 billion units, up 22.1% year-on-year—a further acceleration from March’s 20.6% growth. On trade, IC import value rose 54.7% year-on-year to a high level, with import volume up 11.2% year-on-year—implying a sharp 39.1% year-on-year increase in import ASP, suggesting either rising unit prices or a higher share of high-value chips. Export performance was even more impressive: IC export value soared 99.6% year-on-year to USD 31.1 billion; year-to-date cumulative export value reached USD 103.6 billion, up 83.5% year-on-year. Total semiconductor revenue in March rose 74.1% year-on-year to USD 26.7 billion, continuing the strong growth momentum observed throughout 2026. Inventory and supply chain conditions remain stable. As of March 2026, inventory days for China’s electronics manufacturing sector—including computers, mobile phones, electronic components, and ICs—stood at 55 days, broadly in line with the historical average range of 53–56 days. This suggests no severe inventory overhang or shortage, indicating relatively balanced supply-demand dynamics. Taiwan semiconductor revenue growth moderates but remains positive. Aggregate revenue for major publicly listed Taiwan-based semiconductor firms rose 15.2% year-on-year in April, though declined 2.9% month-on-month. Breaking it down, foundry, IC design, and OSAT revenues changed by -0.8%, -17.6%, and +1.6% month-on-month respectively—highlighting greater short-term volatility in the design segment. Equipment imports and capex trends. Semiconductor process equipment (SPE) imports totaled USD 3.0 billion in April, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, test equipment imports surged 48.4% year-on-year to USD 57.2 million, with test equipment ASP jumping 234.9% month-on-month. Photolithography tool imports fell 29% year-on-year to 55 units, including a 40% decline in Dutch-sourced tools to just 9 units. Despite some equipment import volatility, the report notes that Chinese semiconductor manufacturers continued active tendering in May (e.g., Echip Semi ordering test equipment; Electronic Core Industry Times tendering furnace tube equipment), reinforcing expectations of sustained capex growth over the coming years. Investment themes and coverage list. The report identifies generative AI and China’s ADAS/AD adoption as primary drivers, alongside expanding domestic supplier market share in China. It therefore favors stocks with strong company-specific catalysts—such as new product ramp-ups, product mix upgrades, and market share gains—across IP, design, foundry, advanced packaging, and SPE segments. 'Buy' ratings are maintained on: SMIC (0981.HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK), Naura (002371.SZ), AMEC (688012.SH), Horizon Robotics (9660.HK), Biren Technology, MetaX, Kematek (688037.SH), ACM Research (ACMR.US), Cambricon (688256.SH), and SICC (688234.SH).

Analysis framework

The report employs a standard high-frequency data tracking and cross-chain validation methodology. First, it quantifies industry health using monthly import/export and production data published by China’s General Administration of Customs and National Bureau of Statistics—with particular emphasis on volume-price decomposition, especially deriving ASP changes from the gap between import value and volume growth rates, to assess product structure upgrading. Second, it evaluates supply-demand balance via inventory days (DOI), mitigating distortions from inventory cycles. Third, it benchmarks China’s performance against aggregate revenue data from Taiwan’s semiconductor firms to serve as a reference for global semiconductor cycles and China-specific trends. Finally, it validates actual capex execution by tracking specific equipment tender announcements (bidding data), thereby grounding macro-level indicators in micro-level evidence to support earnings drivers for upstream equipment and downstream manufacturing companies.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Value Chain Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Deriving average selling price (ASP) trends from the differential between year-on-year growth rates of import/export value and volume.

  When value growth significantly outpaces volume growth, it implies either rising unit prices or a higher share of premium products. Based on this, the report infers a 39.1% YoY rise in April IC import ASP—suggesting demand is shifting toward higher-end products.

• Cyclical & Business Conditions FrameworkInventory Cycle (Kitchin Cycle)

  Monitoring industry inventory days (DOI) to identify whether the sector is in a destocking, restocking, or passive inventory build phase.

  The report notes March electronics industry DOI stood at 55 days—within the historical average range—indicating no material inventory pressure and confirming that demand growth reflects genuine end-market strength rather than temporary restocking activity.

• Industry/Value Chain Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Logical transmission from end applications (AI/ADAS) → manufacturing (foundry/IDM) → upstream equipment (SPE).

  The report treats generative AI and autonomous driving as terminal demand drivers, which benefit domestic foundries and design houses, ultimately translating into capex orders for upstream semiconductor equipment and materials suppliers—thereby constructing a full-value-chain investment thesis.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SMIC (0981.HK)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Q1 2026 gross margin exceeded expectations, benefiting from expanding domestic market share and demand for advanced nodes

  Comparison

  Leading foundry with significant scale advantages

• Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Leader in specialty process foundry, benefiting from stable mature-node demand

  Comparison

  Complementary to SMIC, focused on specialty processes

• Naura (002371.SZ)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Platform-type equipment leader, benefiting from rising capex and localization substitution

  Comparison

  Broad product portfolio coverage

• AMEC (688012.SH)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Leader in etch equipment, benefiting from advanced-node capacity expansion

  Comparison

  Globally competitive in etch technology

• Horizon Robotics (9660.HK)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Leader in intelligent driving chips, benefiting from ADAS/AD trends

  Comparison

  Domestic leader in intelligent driving chips

• Cambricon (688256.SH)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  AI compute chips, benefiting from generative AI demand

  Comparison

  Core domestic AI chip player

• Kematek (688037.SH)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Coater-developer equipment, benefiting from wafer fab expansions

  Comparison

  Leader in niche segment

• ACM Research (ACMR.US)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Wafer cleaning equipment, benefiting from rising capex

  Comparison

  China-based semiconductor equipment supplier listed in the U.S.

• SICC (688234.SH)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  Silicon carbide substrates, benefiting from EV and power semiconductor demand

  Comparison

  Leader in third-generation semiconductor materials

• Biren Technology (Biren)

  Benefited

  Strengths

  GPU/AI chips, benefiting from generative AI

  Comparison

  Emerging force in high-performance computing chips

• MetaX

  Benefited

  Strengths

  GPU/AI chips, benefiting from generative AI

  Comparison

  Emerging force in high-performance computing chips

Key data

• April IC Import Value YoY Growth+54.7%Slightly accelerated from +53.7% in March
• April IC Export Value YoY Growth+99.6%Year-to-date cumulative export value up +83.5% YoY
• April IC Production YoY Growth+22.1%Production reached 48 billion units, accelerating from March’s +20.6%
• April IC Import ASP YoY Growth+39.1%Implied calculation, reflecting substantial increase in import chip unit pricing
• March Electronics Industry Inventory Days55 daysAligned with historical average (53–56 days)
• April Taiwan Semiconductor Revenue YoY Growth+15.2%Down 2.9% MoM
• April Semiconductor Test Equipment Import ValueUSD 57.2 millionUp +48.4% YoY, +46.6% MoM

Impact & implications

For the industry, double-digit growth in both import and export values confirms demand resilience in China’s semiconductor market—particularly the near-doubling of export value, which may signal enhanced competitiveness of Chinese chips globally or surging external demand for specific product categories. For listed companies, rising ASP supports improved gross margins for foundries and design firms; meanwhile, sustained capex tendering directly benefits domestic equipment leaders such as Naura and AMEC, as well as specialized suppliers like Kematek. Rising penetration of generative AI and intelligent driving will provide long-term earnings growth engines for firms with advanced process capabilities or domain-specific chip design expertise.

What to watch

• Continuity of volume-price trends in IC import/export in subsequent months
• Actual scale of capex tender execution by Chinese semiconductor manufacturers
• Pace of demand ramp-up for generative AI- and ADAS-related chips
• Inflection point in YoY revenue growth for Taiwan’s semiconductor firms